Michael Derby
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michaelsderby.bsky.social
Michael Derby
@michaelsderby.bsky.social
9.9K followers 900 following 5.8K posts
Fed and economy reporter with @reuters.com, ex-Wall Street Journal. Failed musician, guitar holdout, I really like pedals.
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michaelsderby.bsky.social
No engagement with the matter at hand, just a command to look elsewhere: "There should be no deflections to Epstein or anything else"
epstein doge
November 12, 2025 at 7:20 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
I know nothing about this website but I can say this is some AI fail on Bostic coverage art.
slop
November 12, 2025 at 7:03 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
In a speech at the NY Fed, Treasury Sec. Bessent puts on his hat as "the nation’s top bond salesman" and takes shots at Wall Street and the press in arguing the Treasury market is doing great.
Other developed bond markets, by contrast, have had nowhere near the same success. Some countries have seen demand for their debt reduced or even dry up, especially at the long end. And they have had to react by curtailing sales. But not the United States. We continue to see robust demand at Treasury auctions from a wide range of investors, including foreign investors whose holdings of Treasury securities are at record levels. This impressive performance comes in spite of the negative rhetoric and doomsaying of market pundits, especially this spring. For the past ten months, the press has been pushing a “Sell America” narrative. But the data and the price action have been saying the opposite: “Buy America.” And the market always rewards those who put fundamentals over fear. Suffice it to say, the Treasury market remains the deepest and most liquid market in the world—which is a testament to the efficacy of the Trump Administration’s economic policies.
November 12, 2025 at 3:56 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
If Bessent goes through with this, I would love to know how much worse the deficit is going to be, and whether Trump will try to do it by decree, bypassing what has been an extremely compliant congress.
U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: $2,000 REBATE WOULD BE FOR THOSE MAKING LESS THAN $100,000 BUT NOT DECIDED
November 12, 2025 at 3:24 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Bostic comment:
"It's been my distinct honor and privilege to lead the Atlanta Fed for these past eight and a half years. I feel incredibly fortunate to have worked with the Atlanta Fed's outstanding staff to fulfill the Federal Reserve's mission and serve the Sixth District and the American people," Bostic said while reflecting on his term as president. "I'm proud of what we accomplished during my tenure to turn the lofty goal of an economy that works for everyone into more of a reality, and I look forward to discovering new ways to advance that bold vision in my next chapter."
November 12, 2025 at 3:14 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Morning soundtrack
Lungfish
November 12, 2025 at 1:01 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Morgan Stanley’s roadmap for the return of government economic data.
Data
November 10, 2025 at 4:49 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Good rainy day music, if a little on the nose.
Scott 3
November 10, 2025 at 3:28 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
J.P. Morgan: “This week’s US Supreme Court hearing over President Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs raises the odds these will be reversed. We do not see the decision having a material impact on where the level of the effective tariff rate settles.”
Tariffs
November 8, 2025 at 9:37 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
The architect of TV on the Radio’s sound checks in to share what happened to his old studio in Williamsburg. I miss that version of the neighborhood.
TVOR
November 8, 2025 at 4:04 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Given the current economics of music making I’d love to know what could justify this level of ad spending.
Florence
November 6, 2025 at 7:33 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
de Blasio comes to bury Coumo.
“What happened here is very much a cautionary tale,” former Mayor Bill de Blasio said. “A guy of extraordinary promise — the talent, the energy, were unmistakable. He appeared to have had most of his father’s progressive impulses. What we’ve seen here is 30 years of decline. The extraordinary capacity could have been put to such positive use. But a kind of bunker mentality started to develop early and it grew and grew and grew. It affected his personal life.”
November 5, 2025 at 8:27 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
NYT also calls it for Mamdani. I guess the city waits to see how Trump takes this rebuke.
November 5, 2025 at 2:41 AM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Mark Halperin is still out there doing it.
Mark
November 5, 2025 at 1:43 AM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
One of the great wonders of the modern world, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve listened to this album.
Mezzanine
November 5, 2025 at 12:45 AM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Huh, Ian Mackaye and Henry Rollins have a project together?
Music
November 4, 2025 at 2:28 AM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Manhattan is in no way a “ghost town” and driving a personal car into the densest urban environment in the U.S. is something you should never do.
Ghost town
November 4, 2025 at 2:06 AM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Trump endorses Coumo for mayor and in another sign of how far Congress has given up on its powers of taxation and spending, claims he can by fiat starve the city of federal funds if its citizens elect Mamdani. Also goes on about communism as his government takes stakes in private companies.
Trump Trump
November 3, 2025 at 11:07 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Texas governor says he'll charge some sort of large fee on anyone from New York City that moves to Texas.
Texas tariffs
November 3, 2025 at 9:52 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Some money now flowing toward food benefits after court action. Via Reuters
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE TO USE CONTINGENCY FUNDS TO PARTIALLY PAY FOR NOVEMBER'S SNAP FOOD BENEFITS, COURT FILING SAYS
November 3, 2025 at 5:12 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Atlanta Fed, mulling the end of the penny, notes the coin's current near irrelvaance and said "72 percent of all cash payments already end with 0 (zero) cents."
The observation from the data—that 72 percent of all cash payments already end with 0 (zero) cents—is rather surprising and therefore requires an explanation. Three reasons possibly explain why our survey respondents recorded these payment amounts: Some consumers might be billed for payment amounts that end exactly with zero pennies. For example, payments for partial bills such as installment payments (instead of the full amount) are generally rounded and do not involve any pennies. Payees (merchants or sellers) want to reduce their transaction burden of handling pennies and therefore ask payers (buyers) to disregard the penny component. Alternatively, some consumers who do not have pennies round up the payment amount to the nearest nickel or dime. Survey respondents disregard the survey instructions and round the penny component to zero.
November 3, 2025 at 5:04 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Happy Halloween
Spooky
October 31, 2025 at 11:29 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
The president is spending quite a bit of time on renovations to public property he personally uses while millions are about to lose food assistance and the government is shut down.
Toilet
October 31, 2025 at 5:13 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Committee for a Responsible Budget on hitting $38 billion in US government debt: "The reality is that we’re becoming distressingly numb to our own dysfunction. We fail to pass budgets, we blow past deadlines, we ignore fiscal safeguards, and we haggle over fractions of a budget..."
While nominal gross federal debt may not be the most meaningful measure of our fiscal health, the rest of our fiscal situation is just as bleak. Debt held by the public – economists’ preferred measure of debt – is already as large as our entire economy, beyond any point outside of a world war. The deficit last fiscal year, which ended just a few weeks ago, was $1.8 trillion and is headed towards $2 trillion annually over the coming decade. And we’re on course to spend $1 trillion just on interest payments on the national debt this year, exceeding our spending on our national defense. Something has to give – and eventually it will, whether we are prepared for it or not. The reality is that we’re becoming distressingly numb to our own dysfunction. We fail to pass budgets, we blow past deadlines, we ignore fiscal safeguards, and we haggle over fractions of a budget while leaving the largest drivers untouched. Social Security and Medicare, for example, are just seven years from having their trust funds depleted – and you don’t hear anything from our political leaders on how to avoid such a disaster. Policymakers have a choice: they can continue to abdicate the most basic responsibilities of budgeting, or they can finally confront the worsening fiscal situation before it’s too late.
October 22, 2025 at 8:29 PM
michaelsderby.bsky.social
Deutsche Bank is thinking about ways to overhaul the Fed's controversial quarterly forecasting operation.
Over the coming months, we are set to learn what revisions the Fed intends to make to its communications strategies, including tweaks to the SEP. In this piece, we build a case for shifting the forecast horizons in the SEP from fixed calendar years to rolling windows. We argue that 12-month and 24-month windows could be preferred to shorter (e.g., 6 month) and longer (e.g., 36 month and “longerrun”) variations. This structure could avoid some of the shortfalls of the current approach, including reduced flexibility in near-term policy, the potential to signal too much data dependence, and over-emphasis on unobserved and hard-toestimate variables such as the longer-run dot.
October 22, 2025 at 1:36 PM