Our @apsrjournal.bsky.social article is now in print! We develop a theory to explain why the public doesn't become more prosocial toward LGBTQ+ people after illegitimate anti-LGBTQ+ violence and provide causal, externally valid, evidence for the theory across 4 studies doi.org/10.1017/S000...

it could be both, we don't discount the possibility of organizational socialization effects. in the appendix, based on some assumptions, we quantify the proportion of ACAB that is because AC starts as B relative to C makes B, and find selection explains 41-50% of B.

now, some police-intenders may drop out of college or end up with 2-year degrees, but we show much of the selection effect holds across these groups relative to police-intenders who are unlikely to drop out and are attending 4-year colleges

this is a really good point and we deal with it in the paper. In the 70s, there was a push to educate police and the ACS shows a precipitous increase in education among police officers. as of 2022, over 85% of police at least enroll in college...

Contrary to claims that racial diversity can mitigate biased and hierarchy-enhancing beliefs among the police, we do not find the selection effect is mitigated among non-whites, but it is mitigated among women. 7/n

Consistent with the selection mechanism, we find late adolescents who intend to be cops are consistently more right-leaning on race, immigration, multiculturalism, gender, sexuality, drug policy, free speech, criminal justice, and military policy. 6/n

🚨NEW PAPER 🚨 Are police more right-wing and biased against marginalized groups than the general public? If so, why? My new article in
@pnas.org w/ @tylerreny.bsky.social, Newman, and Sears provides some answers. 🧵1/n

We then observationally explore what instead shaped opposition to Measure J and find, by far, anti-minority orientations (affirmative action opposition) motivate voters to oppose police defunding above and beyond other self-Interest motivations and ideological considerations 7/n

Being within LA Sheriff jurisdiction (threatened by defunding) does not motivate Measure J opposition, the null is precisely 0 and robust. The null exists even though we provide evidence LASD-serviced voters "received-the-treatment" and were concerned about Measure J 6/n

We focus on voting precincts just within and just outside the LA Sheriff jurisdiction border, which reduces covariate imbalance and provides a natural experiment to assess the causal effect of the threat of police defunding on support for police defunding 5/n

Importantly, not all LA County voters are under the jurisdiction of the LA Sheriff. Some cities have their own municipal police departments, some cities are serviced by the LA Sheriff. Therefore, some county voters are voting to defund their police department, others are not 3/n

We investigate the case of Measure J in Los Angeles County, a 2020 referendum to exclude a segment of the LA County budget from funding the Los Angeles Sheriff's department in favor of social programs 2/n

Does the threat of diminished police service drive voters to oppose defund the police referendums? Our new publication contradicts the conventional wisdom and reinforces the primacy of anti-minority orientations in shaping policy preferences www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... 1/n 🧵

this is excellent and excited to cite it! if you want an example in the wild, Kiara, Taeku and I implement a similar approach in our JREP article on the effect of Jan 6 (appendix figure a.2) www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

in studies 4-7, we demonstrate the persistent role of status threat by showing the negative association between disapproval of J6 and Trump support is attenuated for white Republicans who strongly perceive anti-white discrimination 5/n

In studies 1-3, we use unexpected-event-during-survey designs and a difference-in-differences approach with panel data to provide causal evidence the post-J6 backlash against Trump among white Republicans is cancelled out among white Republicans who strongly perceive anti-white discrimination 4/n

This. also, the backlash to Latinx is not about anti-elitism or "authenticity," its queerphobia. Latinos are less likely to support Dem. politicians who use Latinx, but also those who use Latine (which is "homegrown"), and this is a product of queerphobic beliefs net of anti-elitist beliefs.