Michael Hosek
@metrmike.bsky.social
Meteorology PhD Candidate @ OU, amateur author, orange cat dad. I study drylines/severe thunderstorm forecasting, write science fiction/fantasy, and try to take cool cloud photos
...in a way that can help us better understand and forecast dryline-initiated severe storms across short-term, seasonal, and long-term timescales! (5/5)
April 21, 2025 at 9:19 PM
...in a way that can help us better understand and forecast dryline-initiated severe storms across short-term, seasonal, and long-term timescales! (5/5)
We're currently working on using that ML model to extend our dryline climatology back to 1940 (81 years!) in order to investigate sources of variability in dryline frequency, location, and characteristics of the boundary itself. I hope to be able to continue this work and put it all together...(4/5)
April 21, 2025 at 9:19 PM
We're currently working on using that ML model to extend our dryline climatology back to 1940 (81 years!) in order to investigate sources of variability in dryline frequency, location, and characteristics of the boundary itself. I hope to be able to continue this work and put it all together...(4/5)
We also found that the frequency of drylines appeared to be increasing over this 16-year period, but using a front-identifying Machine Learning (ML) model from Justin et al. 2025 (doi.org/10.1175/AIES...), we determined that this trend may not be as significant as it initially appeared (3/5)
April 21, 2025 at 9:19 PM
We also found that the frequency of drylines appeared to be increasing over this 16-year period, but using a front-identifying Machine Learning (ML) model from Justin et al. 2025 (doi.org/10.1175/AIES...), we determined that this trend may not be as significant as it initially appeared (3/5)
...that were not. To no surprise, drylines are most common in spring, and the likelihood of a dryline being associated with severe storms increases later in the spring/early summer. The secondary bump in October, and the ramp-up in February/March are underexplored compared to April-June. (2/5)
April 21, 2025 at 9:19 PM
...that were not. To no surprise, drylines are most common in spring, and the likelihood of a dryline being associated with severe storms increases later in the spring/early summer. The secondary bump in October, and the ramp-up in February/March are underexplored compared to April-June. (2/5)