Recent Ipsos analysis estimates that Republika now has about as many of the '23 voters of the gov't coalition as its own '23 voters.

4/n

The center-/right bloc PS (RE) SaS (ECR) D (EPP) not breaking its record numbers, though D now more often above the 5% threshold.

3/n

Declining Smer and Hlas, buoyant Republika.

2/n

Incomplete use-case overlap though

The data: this crosstab by the EP.

More details on the survey: Eurobarometer 103.4 (2025) europa.eu/eurobaromete...

2/2

Being in the habit of having to run to catch public transport, that was indeed one of my first reactions.

Indeed.

One wonders whether the coalition parties did this assuming that in an aging society, and them being a bit stronger than the opposition is with the older cohorts, some members of their core voter groups may even appreciate it.

Still, it fits well with the tradition of clumsy lawmaking.

It seems that the lawmakers were aiming at preventing e-scooters from using sidewalks and saw curtailing pedestrians as acceptable collateral damage. They may have underestimated the amount of ridicule heading their way because of that.

Correct, it is a maximum.

The current AKO and FOCUS estimates don't show clear paths to a within-bloc coalition gov't. Even the relatively less difficult, but still difficult, options such as KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc, or Hlas joining the center/-right bloc of PS (RE) SaS (ECR) and D (EPP).

2/n

The clearest paths to a majority are cross-bloc coalitions:

Top: KDH (EPP) joining the social-national bloc

Bottom: Hlas (NI) joining the center/-right bloc sans KDH

3/N

Neither bloc with a clear path to a majority, despite several recent polls placing the opposition Demokrati (EPP) above the 5% entry threshold.

2/N