Marta Bengoa
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mbengoa.bsky.social
Marta Bengoa
@mbengoa.bsky.social
Professor of International Economics at City University of New York (CUNY) & Univ of Johannesburg. Senior Fellow at CIRANO (Montreal). Former President International Trade & Finance Association www.martabengoa.com
7/7 The real danger: A feedback loop where tariffs → higher yields → bigger deficits → more borrowing → even higher yields. Markets are warning us, but is anyone in Washington listening?​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
April 14, 2025 at 6:02 PM
6/7 This is mandatory spending—these higher interest costs automatically consume budget dollars for decades without any Congressional vote. Less money for infrastructure, healthcare, education.
April 14, 2025 at 6:01 PM
5/7 Key irony: Countries like China and Japan are both targets of new tariffs AND major holders of US Treasuries. We're effectively antagonizing our largest creditors while asking them to keep financing our debt.
April 14, 2025 at 6:01 PM
4/7 The math: 3-yr notes (+10.4 bps) = $181M more interest. 10-yr notes (+42.5 bps) = $1.66B more. 30-yr bonds (+43 bps) = $2.84B more. This is just from THREE DAYS of post-tariff market reaction.
April 14, 2025 at 6:01 PM
3/7 Just this week's three Treasury auctions will cost taxpayers an extra $4.68B over the life of these securities due to higher yields. That's not a tariff on China—it's a stealth tax on future generations of Americans.
April 14, 2025 at 6:01 PM
2/7 Markets deliver verdicts faster than economists. 10-yr Treasury yield surged from 4.01% to 4.51% in days after tariff announcements, while 30-yr bonds saw their biggest 3-day yield jump since 1982.
April 14, 2025 at 6:00 PM
5/ Africa's trajectory remains uncertain, its vast reserves of rare minerals could be crucial in a reorganized global supply chain. Full implications of Trump's trade offensive remain to be seen, one thing appears certain: consequences will reverberate far beyond targeted nations
February 3, 2025 at 8:54 PM
4/ Regional disparities in impact appear inevitable. Latam faces a potential 1.1% GDP reduction as Chinese demand will inevitably shrink, Southeast Asia could experience a manufacturing renaissance, with optimistic forecasts suggesting up to 2% GDP growth over the next five years
February 3, 2025 at 8:54 PM
3/ It’ll lead to job losses in manufacturing, even as policy aims to protect domestic industry, creating the opposite effect intended. Might trigger a 2.1% contraction in international trade volumes. Perhaps most concerning for developing nations is 3.2% FDI decline (expected)
February 3, 2025 at 8:54 PM
2/The policy raises significant questions about the United States’ reliability as a trading partner and ally. The arbitrary nature of the tariffs introduces a new element of uncertainty into business planning, potentially dampening investment in U.S.-oriented production capacity
February 3, 2025 at 8:54 PM
1/ Policy shift is a major one, not going to reduce the bilateral trade deficits either as those depend on macroeconomic fundamentals (excess of investment over savings in the U.S. economy). Exchange rate of the United States will appreciate contributing to widening the deficit
February 3, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Me! Please add me. Thanks
December 2, 2024 at 3:03 PM
No
November 27, 2024 at 1:36 PM