🅜🅐🅧🅢🅟🅔🅘🅒🅗🅔🅡
@maxspeicher.com
Designer, computer scientist, part-time philosopher
💚 food, literature, a livable planet, the 90s, science, sports, #TeamRobert, video games
📍 Barcelona
✍🏻 Writing: https://maxspeicher.medium.com/
🌺 Poetry: https://maxspeicher.substack.com/
💚 food, literature, a livable planet, the 90s, science, sports, #TeamRobert, video games
📍 Barcelona
✍🏻 Writing: https://maxspeicher.medium.com/
🌺 Poetry: https://maxspeicher.substack.com/
April 4, 2025 at 7:48 AM
*Never* in my life have I "stretch[ed my] legs out comfortably" on a #Lufthansa flight in economy class, LOL!
January 29, 2025 at 8:05 AM
*Never* in my life have I "stretch[ed my] legs out comfortably" on a #Lufthansa flight in economy class, LOL!
Most definitely not on everyone's list, but they should be. @rollingstone.com offers great journalism in these times. 🤘🏻
www.rollingstone.com/politics/
www.rollingstone.com/politics/
January 25, 2025 at 7:09 PM
Most definitely not on everyone's list, but they should be. @rollingstone.com offers great journalism in these times. 🤘🏻
www.rollingstone.com/politics/
www.rollingstone.com/politics/
January 2, 2025 at 11:53 AM
Maybe the most important thing to read right now.
November 13, 2024 at 12:26 PM
Maybe the most important thing to read right now.
@muellershewrote.bsky.social A very theoretical question that hopefully stays theoretical, but reading this, is there a >0% chance we'll see Trump as president for a >2nd time after 2028? Do you have any thoughts on this?
November 10, 2024 at 3:47 PM
@muellershewrote.bsky.social A very theoretical question that hopefully stays theoretical, but reading this, is there a >0% chance we'll see Trump as president for a >2nd time after 2028? Do you have any thoughts on this?
Introduce yourself with
One book 📚
One movie 🎥
One album 💿
One tv show 📺
One book 📚
One movie 🎥
One album 💿
One tv show 📺
November 8, 2024 at 8:56 AM
Introduce yourself with
One book 📚
One movie 🎥
One album 💿
One tv show 📺
One book 📚
One movie 🎥
One album 💿
One tv show 📺
Can we please take a moment to acknowledge just how beautiful Heart of Midlothian F.C.'s club crest is. ♥️
November 7, 2024 at 4:46 PM
Can we please take a moment to acknowledge just how beautiful Heart of Midlothian F.C.'s club crest is. ♥️
George Orwell's "Why I Write" is probably the best thing to read right now.
November 7, 2024 at 9:35 AM
George Orwell's "Why I Write" is probably the best thing to read right now.
From my latest, "Election Forecasts, Schmelection Forecasts. What if pollsters are just too afraid of Trump this time around?"
maxspeicher.medium.com/election-for...
#USElection2024 #PresidentialElection2024
maxspeicher.medium.com/election-for...
#USElection2024 #PresidentialElection2024
November 3, 2024 at 1:02 PM
From my latest, "Election Forecasts, Schmelection Forecasts. What if pollsters are just too afraid of Trump this time around?"
maxspeicher.medium.com/election-for...
#USElection2024 #PresidentialElection2024
maxspeicher.medium.com/election-for...
#USElection2024 #PresidentialElection2024
③ Even with just half the polling bias from 2016/20, he's the favorite in all swing states.
Make sure to also check out github.com/maxspeicher/... for the full analyses and data sets.
End of 🧵
Make sure to also check out github.com/maxspeicher/... for the full analyses and data sets.
End of 🧵
November 1, 2024 at 5:44 PM
③ Even with just half the polling bias from 2016/20, he's the favorite in all swing states.
Make sure to also check out github.com/maxspeicher/... for the full analyses and data sets.
End of 🧵
Make sure to also check out github.com/maxspeicher/... for the full analyses and data sets.
End of 🧵
① If the high-quality polls are correct, #Harris is the slight favorite, but well ... flip a coin. As far as the Democrats are concerned, there's barely any room for a polling bias underestimating Trump if they want to have a half-decent shot at winning. Again, *if* we wanna believe the polls ...
November 1, 2024 at 5:42 PM
① If the high-quality polls are correct, #Harris is the slight favorite, but well ... flip a coin. As far as the Democrats are concerned, there's barely any room for a polling bias underestimating Trump if they want to have a half-decent shot at winning. Again, *if* we wanna believe the polls ...
🧵 The latest update to my #forecast for the #PresidentialElection2024.
Scenario ① | ② | ③
Expected EVs
🔵 Harris | 271 🏆 | 252 | 259
🔴 Trump | 267 | 286 🏆 | 279 🏆
Chance of winning
🔵 Harris | 55% 🏆 | 14% | 27%
🔴 Trump | 44% | 85% 🏆 | 71% 🏆
#USElection2024
Scenario ① | ② | ③
Expected EVs
🔵 Harris | 271 🏆 | 252 | 259
🔴 Trump | 267 | 286 🏆 | 279 🏆
Chance of winning
🔵 Harris | 55% 🏆 | 14% | 27%
🔴 Trump | 44% | 85% 🏆 | 71% 🏆
#USElection2024
November 1, 2024 at 5:40 PM
🧵 The latest update to my #forecast for the #PresidentialElection2024.
Scenario ① | ② | ③
Expected EVs
🔵 Harris | 271 🏆 | 252 | 259
🔴 Trump | 267 | 286 🏆 | 279 🏆
Chance of winning
🔵 Harris | 55% 🏆 | 14% | 27%
🔴 Trump | 44% | 85% 🏆 | 71% 🏆
#USElection2024
Scenario ① | ② | ③
Expected EVs
🔵 Harris | 271 🏆 | 252 | 259
🔴 Trump | 267 | 286 🏆 | 279 🏆
Chance of winning
🔵 Harris | 55% 🏆 | 14% | 27%
🔴 Trump | 44% | 85% 🏆 | 71% 🏆
#USElection2024
October 28, 2024 at 2:58 PM
What I'll be adding from now on are each candidate's chances of winning the entire #election. Together with the expected EVs, this should give a relatively complete picture.
October 24, 2024 at 8:54 PM
What I'll be adding from now on are each candidate's chances of winning the entire #election. Together with the expected EVs, this should give a relatively complete picture.
③ The only noticeable change: Compared to one week ago, Trump gains 1 expected EV in the scenario with a half 2016/20 #pollingError:
October 24, 2024 at 8:53 PM
③ The only noticeable change: Compared to one week ago, Trump gains 1 expected EV in the scenario with a half 2016/20 #pollingError:
② Same when adjusting for the average 2016/20 #pollingError – no gains or losses in expected EVs despite some slight changes in probabilities:
October 24, 2024 at 8:53 PM
② Same when adjusting for the average 2016/20 #pollingError – no gains or losses in expected EVs despite some slight changes in probabilities:
