Max Krahé
@maxkrahe.bsky.social
Co-founder & director Dezernat Zukunft. Democracy/capitalism, 1970s, now finding my way into geoeconomics. Previously postdoc at The New Institute (Hamburg), PhD (Political Science) Yale. Website: www.maxkrahe.com
Und/oder: Falls möglich, wäre es attraktiv nur Teile der Leitwährungsfunktion zu übernehmen, um Zins- und Wechselkursverschiebungen zu dämpfen ("ABSCHICHTEN")
September 2, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Und/oder: Falls möglich, wäre es attraktiv nur Teile der Leitwährungsfunktion zu übernehmen, um Zins- und Wechselkursverschiebungen zu dämpfen ("ABSCHICHTEN")
Aber: Entscheidet sich Europa sowieso für ein neues Wachstumsmodell, könnte Euro-Internationalisierung ein wichtiger Baustein davon sein ("AUFS GANZE GEHEN").
September 2, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Aber: Entscheidet sich Europa sowieso für ein neues Wachstumsmodell, könnte Euro-Internationalisierung ein wichtiger Baustein davon sein ("AUFS GANZE GEHEN").
Für letzteres haben wir eine Kosten-Nutzen-Überschlagsrechnung gemacht.
- Nettoeffekte: positiv. Aber verbergen große Bruttoeffekte/Strukturverschiebungen.
- Vereinfacht: € als Leitwährung wäre Gold für Zinsen (=> Bauindustrie, Innovation, Staat, Finanzsektor), Gift für Industrie.
- Nettoeffekte: positiv. Aber verbergen große Bruttoeffekte/Strukturverschiebungen.
- Vereinfacht: € als Leitwährung wäre Gold für Zinsen (=> Bauindustrie, Innovation, Staat, Finanzsektor), Gift für Industrie.
September 2, 2025 at 6:23 AM
Für letzteres haben wir eine Kosten-Nutzen-Überschlagsrechnung gemacht.
- Nettoeffekte: positiv. Aber verbergen große Bruttoeffekte/Strukturverschiebungen.
- Vereinfacht: € als Leitwährung wäre Gold für Zinsen (=> Bauindustrie, Innovation, Staat, Finanzsektor), Gift für Industrie.
- Nettoeffekte: positiv. Aber verbergen große Bruttoeffekte/Strukturverschiebungen.
- Vereinfacht: € als Leitwährung wäre Gold für Zinsen (=> Bauindustrie, Innovation, Staat, Finanzsektor), Gift für Industrie.
🚨Neuer @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Geldbrief von Nils Gerresheim und mir zu €-Internationalisierung 🚨
Kernbotschaften: Dollar-Verunsicherung schafft Möglichkeitenfenster. Aber:
- Kein Selbstläufer, Reservenwachstum aktuell eher bei Gold als Euro.
- Und: Wollen wir das überhaupt?
Kernbotschaften: Dollar-Verunsicherung schafft Möglichkeitenfenster. Aber:
- Kein Selbstläufer, Reservenwachstum aktuell eher bei Gold als Euro.
- Und: Wollen wir das überhaupt?
September 2, 2025 at 6:23 AM
🚨Neuer @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Geldbrief von Nils Gerresheim und mir zu €-Internationalisierung 🚨
Kernbotschaften: Dollar-Verunsicherung schafft Möglichkeitenfenster. Aber:
- Kein Selbstläufer, Reservenwachstum aktuell eher bei Gold als Euro.
- Und: Wollen wir das überhaupt?
Kernbotschaften: Dollar-Verunsicherung schafft Möglichkeitenfenster. Aber:
- Kein Selbstläufer, Reservenwachstum aktuell eher bei Gold als Euro.
- Und: Wollen wir das überhaupt?
+++ Neuer Geldbrief - Kaffee, Klima, Preise +++
Die Inflation beruhigt sich, aber die Kaffeepreise explodieren. Was ist da los? @saraschulte.bsky.social und ich haben es uns diese Woche im @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Geldbrief angeschaut.
dezernatzukunft.org/kaffee-klima...
Hier die Essenz:
Die Inflation beruhigt sich, aber die Kaffeepreise explodieren. Was ist da los? @saraschulte.bsky.social und ich haben es uns diese Woche im @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Geldbrief angeschaut.
dezernatzukunft.org/kaffee-klima...
Hier die Essenz:
August 22, 2025 at 7:11 AM
+++ Neuer Geldbrief - Kaffee, Klima, Preise +++
Die Inflation beruhigt sich, aber die Kaffeepreise explodieren. Was ist da los? @saraschulte.bsky.social und ich haben es uns diese Woche im @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Geldbrief angeschaut.
dezernatzukunft.org/kaffee-klima...
Hier die Essenz:
Die Inflation beruhigt sich, aber die Kaffeepreise explodieren. Was ist da los? @saraschulte.bsky.social und ich haben es uns diese Woche im @dezernatzukunft.bsky.social Geldbrief angeschaut.
dezernatzukunft.org/kaffee-klima...
Hier die Essenz:
Trump-Zölle: Es ist nicht alles schlecht.
August 8, 2025 at 6:43 AM
Trump-Zölle: Es ist nicht alles schlecht.
c. Die 🇪🇺-Versprechen von $750 Mrd Energiekäufen & 600 Mrd US-Investitionen sind unhaltbar oder wertlos. Wir werden FDI // Käufe von US-Öl & Gas nicht um ~200 Mrd pro Jahr steigern. Vllt kann man es durch Zahlenmassage simulieren. Aber in substance it's just not going to happen.
July 30, 2025 at 3:53 PM
c. Die 🇪🇺-Versprechen von $750 Mrd Energiekäufen & 600 Mrd US-Investitionen sind unhaltbar oder wertlos. Wir werden FDI // Käufe von US-Öl & Gas nicht um ~200 Mrd pro Jahr steigern. Vllt kann man es durch Zahlenmassage simulieren. Aber in substance it's just not going to happen.
ABER: Das wichtigste 🇪🇺-Ziel ist nicht erreicht. Die europäische Seite betont seit Sonntag "endlich Gewissheit" (ec.europa.eu/commission/p...). Das ist falsch.
a. Die Einigung wurde willkürlich erzielt (1h Verhandlungen in einem Trump-Hotel!), kann willkürlich wieder gesprengt werden
a. Die Einigung wurde willkürlich erzielt (1h Verhandlungen in einem Trump-Hotel!), kann willkürlich wieder gesprengt werden
July 30, 2025 at 3:53 PM
ABER: Das wichtigste 🇪🇺-Ziel ist nicht erreicht. Die europäische Seite betont seit Sonntag "endlich Gewissheit" (ec.europa.eu/commission/p...). Das ist falsch.
a. Die Einigung wurde willkürlich erzielt (1h Verhandlungen in einem Trump-Hotel!), kann willkürlich wieder gesprengt werden
a. Die Einigung wurde willkürlich erzielt (1h Verhandlungen in einem Trump-Hotel!), kann willkürlich wieder gesprengt werden
d. 🇺🇸 schneidet sich ins eigene Fleisch. Stahl- & Aluzölle + schwelender 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽-Konflikt steigern Kosten für US-Autowerke, stärken Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von EU-Werken.
e. Insgesamt könnte 🇪🇺 also sogar von Trumps Zollpolitik profitieren -- das sagen die @budgetlab.bsky.social Zahlen.
e. Insgesamt könnte 🇪🇺 also sogar von Trumps Zollpolitik profitieren -- das sagen die @budgetlab.bsky.social Zahlen.
July 30, 2025 at 3:53 PM
d. 🇺🇸 schneidet sich ins eigene Fleisch. Stahl- & Aluzölle + schwelender 🇨🇦 & 🇲🇽-Konflikt steigern Kosten für US-Autowerke, stärken Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von EU-Werken.
e. Insgesamt könnte 🇪🇺 also sogar von Trumps Zollpolitik profitieren -- das sagen die @budgetlab.bsky.social Zahlen.
e. Insgesamt könnte 🇪🇺 also sogar von Trumps Zollpolitik profitieren -- das sagen die @budgetlab.bsky.social Zahlen.
b. wichtige Produkte mit starken 🇪🇺-Firmen genießen 0% Zölle: Flugzeuge (Airbus), Halbleiterequipment (ASML, Trumpf, Zeiss), Chemie (BASF).
c. 🇪🇺 steht relativ gesehen gut da. UK hat 10%, aber nur 2% Marktanteil. Ggü Japan, Vietnam, China sind wir gleichauf/besser gestellt.
c. 🇪🇺 steht relativ gesehen gut da. UK hat 10%, aber nur 2% Marktanteil. Ggü Japan, Vietnam, China sind wir gleichauf/besser gestellt.
July 30, 2025 at 3:53 PM
b. wichtige Produkte mit starken 🇪🇺-Firmen genießen 0% Zölle: Flugzeuge (Airbus), Halbleiterequipment (ASML, Trumpf, Zeiss), Chemie (BASF).
c. 🇪🇺 steht relativ gesehen gut da. UK hat 10%, aber nur 2% Marktanteil. Ggü Japan, Vietnam, China sind wir gleichauf/besser gestellt.
c. 🇪🇺 steht relativ gesehen gut da. UK hat 10%, aber nur 2% Marktanteil. Ggü Japan, Vietnam, China sind wir gleichauf/besser gestellt.
Angesichts Trumps 30% Drohung, bumping this up again:
- Verwundbare EU-Exportsektoren: Maschinenbau, Chemie, Autos, Pharma.
- Falls EU zurückschlägt und es eskaliert, unsere Importverwundbarkeiten: Energie, Chemie, Pharma, Fahrzeuge.
Zum Nachlesen hier: dezernatzukunft.org/wo-handelskr...
- Verwundbare EU-Exportsektoren: Maschinenbau, Chemie, Autos, Pharma.
- Falls EU zurückschlägt und es eskaliert, unsere Importverwundbarkeiten: Energie, Chemie, Pharma, Fahrzeuge.
Zum Nachlesen hier: dezernatzukunft.org/wo-handelskr...
July 14, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Angesichts Trumps 30% Drohung, bumping this up again:
- Verwundbare EU-Exportsektoren: Maschinenbau, Chemie, Autos, Pharma.
- Falls EU zurückschlägt und es eskaliert, unsere Importverwundbarkeiten: Energie, Chemie, Pharma, Fahrzeuge.
Zum Nachlesen hier: dezernatzukunft.org/wo-handelskr...
- Verwundbare EU-Exportsektoren: Maschinenbau, Chemie, Autos, Pharma.
- Falls EU zurückschlägt und es eskaliert, unsere Importverwundbarkeiten: Energie, Chemie, Pharma, Fahrzeuge.
Zum Nachlesen hier: dezernatzukunft.org/wo-handelskr...
MODELLING: BIGGER TOOLKIT, MORE JUDGEMENT
More variety, more sensitivities, more scenarios. This implies more judgement and interpretation: the pieces must be assembled. This is good, and saying this openly is honest communication. Underlines once more: monetary policy is art, not science.
6/6
More variety, more sensitivities, more scenarios. This implies more judgement and interpretation: the pieces must be assembled. This is good, and saying this openly is honest communication. Underlines once more: monetary policy is art, not science.
6/6
July 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
MODELLING: BIGGER TOOLKIT, MORE JUDGEMENT
More variety, more sensitivities, more scenarios. This implies more judgement and interpretation: the pieces must be assembled. This is good, and saying this openly is honest communication. Underlines once more: monetary policy is art, not science.
6/6
More variety, more sensitivities, more scenarios. This implies more judgement and interpretation: the pieces must be assembled. This is good, and saying this openly is honest communication. Underlines once more: monetary policy is art, not science.
6/6
ENERGY TRANSITION STABILISES PRICES
ECB modelling shows the green transition to reduce inflation volatility. Note: panel b) might be mislabelled. Both the text and intuition suggests that the delta in volatility should be higher for manufacturing than services, but the chart shows the opposite.
5/6
ECB modelling shows the green transition to reduce inflation volatility. Note: panel b) might be mislabelled. Both the text and intuition suggests that the delta in volatility should be higher for manufacturing than services, but the chart shows the opposite.
5/6
July 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
ENERGY TRANSITION STABILISES PRICES
ECB modelling shows the green transition to reduce inflation volatility. Note: panel b) might be mislabelled. Both the text and intuition suggests that the delta in volatility should be higher for manufacturing than services, but the chart shows the opposite.
5/6
ECB modelling shows the green transition to reduce inflation volatility. Note: panel b) might be mislabelled. Both the text and intuition suggests that the delta in volatility should be higher for manufacturing than services, but the chart shows the opposite.
5/6
NEW ACTIVITY INDICATOR
The ECB teases a new "harmonized weekly activity index for the euro area" (aka HaWAI; see p. 128 of OP371). Nothing public on this yet, AFAIK, but will keep my eyes peeled. Could be nicely complementary to the new wage tracker (www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d...)
4/6
The ECB teases a new "harmonized weekly activity index for the euro area" (aka HaWAI; see p. 128 of OP371). Nothing public on this yet, AFAIK, but will keep my eyes peeled. Could be nicely complementary to the new wage tracker (www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d...)
4/6
July 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
NEW ACTIVITY INDICATOR
The ECB teases a new "harmonized weekly activity index for the euro area" (aka HaWAI; see p. 128 of OP371). Nothing public on this yet, AFAIK, but will keep my eyes peeled. Could be nicely complementary to the new wage tracker (www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d...)
4/6
The ECB teases a new "harmonized weekly activity index for the euro area" (aka HaWAI; see p. 128 of OP371). Nothing public on this yet, AFAIK, but will keep my eyes peeled. Could be nicely complementary to the new wage tracker (www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d...)
4/6
R*
We all know it's unobservable etc etc. We also all know that you kind of need it to judge if/how expansive/contractionary the monetary policy stance is. Hence great for the ECB to do this overview chart of what values different methods spit out. 🙏🙏🙏
3/6
We all know it's unobservable etc etc. We also all know that you kind of need it to judge if/how expansive/contractionary the monetary policy stance is. Hence great for the ECB to do this overview chart of what values different methods spit out. 🙏🙏🙏
3/6
July 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
R*
We all know it's unobservable etc etc. We also all know that you kind of need it to judge if/how expansive/contractionary the monetary policy stance is. Hence great for the ECB to do this overview chart of what values different methods spit out. 🙏🙏🙏
3/6
We all know it's unobservable etc etc. We also all know that you kind of need it to judge if/how expansive/contractionary the monetary policy stance is. Hence great for the ECB to do this overview chart of what values different methods spit out. 🙏🙏🙏
3/6
HOUSING INFLATION
There's a whole box on measuring costs of owner-occupied housing (OOH). Why? Because the technicalities matter, and they matter most when it matters most:
- during quiet times, ~0.1-0.2 difference
- But in a spike, methods differ by 1pp (headline inflation!). That's chunky.
2/6
There's a whole box on measuring costs of owner-occupied housing (OOH). Why? Because the technicalities matter, and they matter most when it matters most:
- during quiet times, ~0.1-0.2 difference
- But in a spike, methods differ by 1pp (headline inflation!). That's chunky.
2/6
July 11, 2025 at 2:00 PM
HOUSING INFLATION
There's a whole box on measuring costs of owner-occupied housing (OOH). Why? Because the technicalities matter, and they matter most when it matters most:
- during quiet times, ~0.1-0.2 difference
- But in a spike, methods differ by 1pp (headline inflation!). That's chunky.
2/6
There's a whole box on measuring costs of owner-occupied housing (OOH). Why? Because the technicalities matter, and they matter most when it matters most:
- during quiet times, ~0.1-0.2 difference
- But in a spike, methods differ by 1pp (headline inflation!). That's chunky.
2/6
Finally, fiscal: Discretionary fiscal measures broadly worked. Brought down inflation, boosted growth in 2022, at the cost of elevated inflation and lower growth in 2023-4. Good smoothing. Caveat: B-B model gives weaker result (but same direction)
7/7
7/7
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Finally, fiscal: Discretionary fiscal measures broadly worked. Brought down inflation, boosted growth in 2022, at the cost of elevated inflation and lower growth in 2023-4. Good smoothing. Caveat: B-B model gives weaker result (but same direction)
7/7
7/7
2) The ECB’s own data seems funny on this. Inflation came down rapidly both in rate-sensitive Non-Energy Industrial Goods (NEIG) AND non-sensitive NEIGs. So was it rates, or was it supply chains first breaking, then reconstituting themselves?
6/7
6/7
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
2) The ECB’s own data seems funny on this. Inflation came down rapidly both in rate-sensitive Non-Energy Industrial Goods (NEIG) AND non-sensitive NEIGs. So was it rates, or was it supply chains first breaking, then reconstituting themselves?
6/7
6/7
What about impact of monetary policy? The "Victory Lap" paper is the other one; haven't worked through that yet. But two observations from this one:
1) the ECB claims monetary policy acted through a hit to manufacturing. Tension with political priority of boosting manufacturing…
5/7
1) the ECB claims monetary policy acted through a hit to manufacturing. Tension with political priority of boosting manufacturing…
5/7
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
What about impact of monetary policy? The "Victory Lap" paper is the other one; haven't worked through that yet. But two observations from this one:
1) the ECB claims monetary policy acted through a hit to manufacturing. Tension with political priority of boosting manufacturing…
5/7
1) the ECB claims monetary policy acted through a hit to manufacturing. Tension with political priority of boosting manufacturing…
5/7
Unlike in the 1970s, wages were never in the driver’s seat
- There was no wage-price spiral
- Recent wage growth is catch-up
- New ECB wage tracker (great tool!) shows wage growth will come down end-2025 (for wages formed through collective bargaining, ~50% of total)
4/7
- There was no wage-price spiral
- Recent wage growth is catch-up
- New ECB wage tracker (great tool!) shows wage growth will come down end-2025 (for wages formed through collective bargaining, ~50% of total)
4/7
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Unlike in the 1970s, wages were never in the driver’s seat
- There was no wage-price spiral
- Recent wage growth is catch-up
- New ECB wage tracker (great tool!) shows wage growth will come down end-2025 (for wages formed through collective bargaining, ~50% of total)
4/7
- There was no wage-price spiral
- Recent wage growth is catch-up
- New ECB wage tracker (great tool!) shows wage growth will come down end-2025 (for wages formed through collective bargaining, ~50% of total)
4/7
And it was different on the way down:
- low “sacrifice ratio”, i.e. how much output was sacrificed to drive down inflation.
- Disarmingly, the ECB says "we don’t really know why, there was a lot going on". And that’s true! There was a lot going on!
3/7
- low “sacrifice ratio”, i.e. how much output was sacrificed to drive down inflation.
- Disarmingly, the ECB says "we don’t really know why, there was a lot going on". And that’s true! There was a lot going on!
3/7
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
And it was different on the way down:
- low “sacrifice ratio”, i.e. how much output was sacrificed to drive down inflation.
- Disarmingly, the ECB says "we don’t really know why, there was a lot going on". And that’s true! There was a lot going on!
3/7
- low “sacrifice ratio”, i.e. how much output was sacrificed to drive down inflation.
- Disarmingly, the ECB says "we don’t really know why, there was a lot going on". And that’s true! There was a lot going on!
3/7
It was different on the way up:
- supply bottlenecks + energy + food shocks drove the surge; much less of a demand story
- comparison of models with and without production networks shows that ignoring production networks (aka supply chains) underestimate the impact of supply shocks
2/7
- supply bottlenecks + energy + food shocks drove the surge; much less of a demand story
- comparison of models with and without production networks shows that ignoring production networks (aka supply chains) underestimate the impact of supply shocks
2/7
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
It was different on the way up:
- supply bottlenecks + energy + food shocks drove the surge; much less of a demand story
- comparison of models with and without production networks shows that ignoring production networks (aka supply chains) underestimate the impact of supply shocks
2/7
- supply bottlenecks + energy + food shocks drove the surge; much less of a demand story
- comparison of models with and without production networks shows that ignoring production networks (aka supply chains) underestimate the impact of supply shocks
2/7
Next up in @ecb.europa.eu Strategy Assessment debriefing: the inflation story, as told in Occasional Paper 371
📣Key message: this was not our grandparents’ inflation📣
1/7
📣Key message: this was not our grandparents’ inflation📣
1/7
July 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Next up in @ecb.europa.eu Strategy Assessment debriefing: the inflation story, as told in Occasional Paper 371
📣Key message: this was not our grandparents’ inflation📣
1/7
📣Key message: this was not our grandparents’ inflation📣
1/7
❌ Finally, §11 backtracks on outreach events, killing them without replacement. I have not heard any reasoning for this, nor did it come up at the Lagarde/Lane press conference after the launch. But it seems less than ideal for preserving public trust in volatile times.
10/10
10/10
July 11, 2025 at 4:52 AM
❌ Finally, §11 backtracks on outreach events, killing them without replacement. I have not heard any reasoning for this, nor did it come up at the Lagarde/Lane press conference after the launch. But it seems less than ideal for preserving public trust in volatile times.
10/10
10/10
❌ With §6 & 7, the ECB added new references to expectations on top of §5. Given the role of expectations has been questioned in recent years (e.g. Rudd 2021, www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...), may have been wiser to stay more agnostic on this.
9/10
9/10
July 11, 2025 at 4:52 AM
❌ With §6 & 7, the ECB added new references to expectations on top of §5. Given the role of expectations has been questioned in recent years (e.g. Rudd 2021, www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds...), may have been wiser to stay more agnostic on this.
9/10
9/10