Max Ghenis
@maxghenis.bsky.social
Co-founder and CEO of @policyengine.org
California's wealth tax proposal isn't marginal: At $2B wealth, you'll pay 5% on the full $2B ($100M).
To avoid a cliff, they phase in the 5% over $1B to $1.1B wealth. You pay $0 at $1B and 5% at $1.1B. That's $55M, or a 55% tax on tha $100M marginal wealth.
To avoid a cliff, they phase in the 5% over $1B to $1.1B wealth. You pay $0 at $1B and 5% at $1.1B. That's $55M, or a 55% tax on tha $100M marginal wealth.
October 25, 2025 at 11:39 PM
California's wealth tax proposal isn't marginal: At $2B wealth, you'll pay 5% on the full $2B ($100M).
To avoid a cliff, they phase in the 5% over $1B to $1.1B wealth. You pay $0 at $1B and 5% at $1.1B. That's $55M, or a 55% tax on tha $100M marginal wealth.
To avoid a cliff, they phase in the 5% over $1B to $1.1B wealth. You pay $0 at $1B and 5% at $1.1B. That's $55M, or a 55% tax on tha $100M marginal wealth.
Heading to LA this week for Benefit Navigator's event.
Their platform helps families and case managers navigate public benefits and tax credits - powered by the @us.policyengine.org API for tax and benefit calculations. Excited to see tech and policy come together to expand access.
Their platform helps families and case managers navigate public benefits and tax credits - powered by the @us.policyengine.org API for tax and benefit calculations. Excited to see tech and policy come together to expand access.
October 18, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Heading to LA this week for Benefit Navigator's event.
Their platform helps families and case managers navigate public benefits and tax credits - powered by the @us.policyengine.org API for tax and benefit calculations. Excited to see tech and policy come together to expand access.
Their platform helps families and case managers navigate public benefits and tax credits - powered by the @us.policyengine.org API for tax and benefit calculations. Excited to see tech and policy come together to expand access.
ChatGPT estimates the anti-Israel boycott against Shouk increased their risk of closure by 40% this year.
Links:
instagram.com/p/DHWA8BWJHl6
washingtonsocialist.mdcdsa.org/ws-articles/...
instagram.com/p/DPUllyAjkxb
chatgpt.com/share/68e223...
Links:
instagram.com/p/DHWA8BWJHl6
washingtonsocialist.mdcdsa.org/ws-articles/...
instagram.com/p/DPUllyAjkxb
chatgpt.com/share/68e223...
October 7, 2025 at 12:03 PM
ChatGPT estimates the anti-Israel boycott against Shouk increased their risk of closure by 40% this year.
Links:
instagram.com/p/DHWA8BWJHl6
washingtonsocialist.mdcdsa.org/ws-articles/...
instagram.com/p/DPUllyAjkxb
chatgpt.com/share/68e223...
Links:
instagram.com/p/DHWA8BWJHl6
washingtonsocialist.mdcdsa.org/ws-articles/...
instagram.com/p/DPUllyAjkxb
chatgpt.com/share/68e223...
Disappointed that the plant-based Shouk, my favorite fast-casual place in DC, has closed. Anti-Israel groups targeted it because an Israeli immigrant owned it, and are now cheering their victory.
October 7, 2025 at 12:03 PM
Disappointed that the plant-based Shouk, my favorite fast-casual place in DC, has closed. Anti-Israel groups targeted it because an Israeli immigrant owned it, and are now cheering their victory.
Alaska's Fairbanks region has the highest second-lowest-cost silver plan (a key PTC ingredient) for older residents.
As a result, a married couple, each 64 years old earning $83k, would gain $57,292 in 2026 if the enhanced subsidies are extended. They'd get some PTC with up to $756k income.
As a result, a married couple, each 64 years old earning $83k, would gain $57,292 in 2026 if the enhanced subsidies are extended. They'd get some PTC with up to $756k income.
October 2, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Alaska's Fairbanks region has the highest second-lowest-cost silver plan (a key PTC ingredient) for older residents.
As a result, a married couple, each 64 years old earning $83k, would gain $57,292 in 2026 if the enhanced subsidies are extended. They'd get some PTC with up to $756k income.
As a result, a married couple, each 64 years old earning $83k, would gain $57,292 in 2026 if the enhanced subsidies are extended. They'd get some PTC with up to $756k income.
Our new ACA calculator shows how extending the enhanced premium tax credits would affect households.
An extreme case: A 64-year-old in Fairbanks, AK would gain $655 in 2026 if they earn $61k, but gain $26,861 if they earn $62k.
Try it here: policyengine.org/us/aca-calc
An extreme case: A 64-year-old in Fairbanks, AK would gain $655 in 2026 if they earn $61k, but gain $26,861 if they earn $62k.
Try it here: policyengine.org/us/aca-calc
October 2, 2025 at 8:52 AM
Our new ACA calculator shows how extending the enhanced premium tax credits would affect households.
An extreme case: A 64-year-old in Fairbanks, AK would gain $655 in 2026 if they earn $61k, but gain $26,861 if they earn $62k.
Try it here: policyengine.org/us/aca-calc
An extreme case: A 64-year-old in Fairbanks, AK would gain $655 in 2026 if they earn $61k, but gain $26,861 if they earn $62k.
Try it here: policyengine.org/us/aca-calc
We constructed fully synthetic firm microdata to conduct this analysis. I was struck how calibrating to a large range of coarse aggregates could result in microdata that reveals sharp responses to cliff effects.
You could run a bunching study on this synthetic data! (And we will.)
You could run a bunching study on this synthetic data! (And we will.)
September 10, 2025 at 2:03 AM
We constructed fully synthetic firm microdata to conduct this analysis. I was struck how calibrating to a large range of coarse aggregates could result in microdata that reveals sharp responses to cliff effects.
You could run a bunching study on this synthetic data! (And we will.)
You could run a bunching study on this synthetic data! (And we will.)
Here I also used LLMs to check my intuition on how readers might interpret articles (all four I tested interpreted the Telegraph's statement the way I thought the public might; that is, incorrectly).
August 30, 2025 at 5:43 PM
Here I also used LLMs to check my intuition on how readers might interpret articles (all four I tested interpreted the Telegraph's statement the way I thought the public might; that is, incorrectly).
HMRC projected last year that raising the VAT threshold to £90k would increase revenues in 2028-29. Looks weird until you realize that would represent a tax hike by then, since it'd otherwise be £92k!
August 30, 2025 at 5:43 PM
HMRC projected last year that raising the VAT threshold to £90k would increase revenues in 2028-29. Looks weird until you realize that would represent a tax hike by then, since it'd otherwise be £92k!
I've been using Claude Code a LOT lately ($5,800+ in tokens last month on my $200 Claude Max plan), and now experimenting with custom slash commands and subagents. Here's an example: using parallel subagents to independently write integration tests and encode policies for @us.policyengine.org.
August 28, 2025 at 12:21 PM
I've been using Claude Code a LOT lately ($5,800+ in tokens last month on my $200 Claude Max plan), and now experimenting with custom slash commands and subagents. Here's an example: using parallel subagents to independently write integration tests and encode policies for @us.policyengine.org.
The draft also continues to inflation-index the maximum refundable CTC. Similarly applying CBO's inflation projections yields these values:
2024-26: $1,700
2027-28: $1,800
2029-31: $1,900
2032-33: $2,000
2034-35: $2,100
2024-26: $1,700
2027-28: $1,800
2029-31: $1,900
2032-33: $2,000
2034-35: $2,100
May 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
The draft also continues to inflation-index the maximum refundable CTC. Similarly applying CBO's inflation projections yields these values:
2024-26: $1,700
2027-28: $1,800
2029-31: $1,900
2032-33: $2,000
2034-35: $2,100
2024-26: $1,700
2027-28: $1,800
2029-31: $1,900
2032-33: $2,000
2034-35: $2,100
The new W&M draft increases the maximum CTC from $2,000 to $2,500 from 2025 to 2028. From 2029 onwards, it then sets it to $2,000, inflation-indexed with a 2024 base year. Applying CBO inflation projections yields:
2029-30: $2,200
2031-33: $2,300
2034-35: $2,400
2029-30: $2,200
2031-33: $2,300
2034-35: $2,400
May 10, 2025 at 5:07 PM
The new W&M draft increases the maximum CTC from $2,000 to $2,500 from 2025 to 2028. From 2029 onwards, it then sets it to $2,000, inflation-indexed with a 2024 base year. Applying CBO inflation projections yields:
2029-30: $2,200
2031-33: $2,300
2034-35: $2,400
2029-30: $2,200
2031-33: $2,300
2034-35: $2,400
New Ways & Means draft extends TCJA's AMT provisions while letting the SALT cap expire. Since AMT limits SALT benefits, filers would gain more from SALT than they did pre-TCJA.
For example, a joint filer with $250k income faces these effective SALT caps in 2026:
Current law: $38,876
W&M: $72,747
For example, a joint filer with $250k income faces these effective SALT caps in 2026:
Current law: $38,876
W&M: $72,747
May 10, 2025 at 2:02 AM
New Ways & Means draft extends TCJA's AMT provisions while letting the SALT cap expire. Since AMT limits SALT benefits, filers would gain more from SALT than they did pre-TCJA.
For example, a joint filer with $250k income faces these effective SALT caps in 2026:
Current law: $38,876
W&M: $72,747
For example, a joint filer with $250k income faces these effective SALT caps in 2026:
Current law: $38,876
W&M: $72,747
New poll from @umich.edu Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation: 62% of adults age 50+ think Medicare would pay for their care if they need to permanently move into a nursing home. People age 65+ & those with disabilities disproportionately believe this.
Medicare doesn't cover long term care.
Medicare doesn't cover long term care.
May 8, 2025 at 6:52 PM
New poll from @umich.edu Institute for Healthcare Policy & Innovation: 62% of adults age 50+ think Medicare would pay for their care if they need to permanently move into a nursing home. People age 65+ & those with disabilities disproportionately believe this.
Medicare doesn't cover long term care.
Medicare doesn't cover long term care.
Cutting the trade deficit is a controversial goal. But if you did want to, what levers would you pull?
I asked o3 to identify some, along with estimates and CIs. It estimated that tool usage would shrink its CIs by 20-40%.
Motivating for our work arming AI with models via MCP.
I asked o3 to identify some, along with estimates and CIs. It estimated that tool usage would shrink its CIs by 20-40%.
Motivating for our work arming AI with models via MCP.
May 7, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Cutting the trade deficit is a controversial goal. But if you did want to, what levers would you pull?
I asked o3 to identify some, along with estimates and CIs. It estimated that tool usage would shrink its CIs by 20-40%.
Motivating for our work arming AI with models via MCP.
I asked o3 to identify some, along with estimates and CIs. It estimated that tool usage would shrink its CIs by 20-40%.
Motivating for our work arming AI with models via MCP.
We all know the difficulty of counting the r's in "strawberry", but what about other fruits, or even other letters?
This combinatorics problem grows exponentially, but with the help of Claude Code, I've built a tool to solve it, at least for common fruits.
Here it is in action:
This combinatorics problem grows exponentially, but with the help of Claude Code, I've built a tool to solve it, at least for common fruits.
Here it is in action:
February 27, 2025 at 12:18 AM
We all know the difficulty of counting the r's in "strawberry", but what about other fruits, or even other letters?
This combinatorics problem grows exponentially, but with the help of Claude Code, I've built a tool to solve it, at least for common fruits.
Here it is in action:
This combinatorics problem grows exponentially, but with the help of Claude Code, I've built a tool to solve it, at least for common fruits.
Here it is in action:
Just back from EA Global SF with the @policyengine.org team! Incredible conversations with folks tackling the world's most pressing problems. With AI transforming society at unprecedented speed, our work on transparent policy simulation feels more urgent than ever.
February 26, 2025 at 5:48 AM
Just back from EA Global SF with the @policyengine.org team! Incredible conversations with folks tackling the world's most pressing problems. With AI transforming society at unprecedented speed, our work on transparent policy simulation feels more urgent than ever.
DC residents have income higher than any state and 53% higher than the national average.
February 25, 2025 at 1:04 AM
DC residents have income higher than any state and 53% higher than the national average.
A single parent of one with $14,200 earnings can claim a $4,328 EITC in 2025, per @policyengineus.bsky.social.
Deepseek and Claude estimated this most accurately (though Deepseek thought about it for over three minutes!); Gemini estimated least accurately.
Deepseek and Claude estimated this most accurately (though Deepseek thought about it for over three minutes!); Gemini estimated least accurately.
February 13, 2025 at 2:43 AM
A single parent of one with $14,200 earnings can claim a $4,328 EITC in 2025, per @policyengineus.bsky.social.
Deepseek and Claude estimated this most accurately (though Deepseek thought about it for over three minutes!); Gemini estimated least accurately.
Deepseek and Claude estimated this most accurately (though Deepseek thought about it for over three minutes!); Gemini estimated least accurately.
Would @kalshiofficial.bsky.social say that Biden "reduced the national debt" because it fell 0.35% from Q2 to Q3 2021?
February 13, 2025 at 2:38 AM
Would @kalshiofficial.bsky.social say that Biden "reduced the national debt" because it fell 0.35% from Q2 to Q3 2021?
The Census Bureau has taken down American Community Survey microdata.
Thankfully we had a local copy, and now store it on @policyengine.bsky.social servers.
Thankfully we had a local copy, and now store it on @policyengine.bsky.social servers.
February 5, 2025 at 4:13 AM
The Census Bureau has taken down American Community Survey microdata.
Thankfully we had a local copy, and now store it on @policyengine.bsky.social servers.
Thankfully we had a local copy, and now store it on @policyengine.bsky.social servers.
January 1, 2025 at 5:06 AM
📊 OEWS Explorer: A dashboard for exploring BLS occupational & wage data by location
oews-explorer.streamlit.app
oews-explorer.streamlit.app
January 1, 2025 at 5:06 AM
📊 OEWS Explorer: A dashboard for exploring BLS occupational & wage data by location
oews-explorer.streamlit.app
oews-explorer.streamlit.app
🔄 PR Improver: An LLM-powered tool suggesting improvements to PRs based on repo guidelines (PolicyEngine repos for now, will add other repos with BYO API key)
pr-improver.streamlit.app
pr-improver.streamlit.app
January 1, 2025 at 5:06 AM
🔄 PR Improver: An LLM-powered tool suggesting improvements to PRs based on repo guidelines (PolicyEngine repos for now, will add other repos with BYO API key)
pr-improver.streamlit.app
pr-improver.streamlit.app
🧵 CodeStitch: A React app that combines GitHub repos, PRs, and issues into single files for AI context
codestitch.dev
codestitch.dev
January 1, 2025 at 5:06 AM
🧵 CodeStitch: A React app that combines GitHub repos, PRs, and issues into single files for AI context
codestitch.dev
codestitch.dev