Max Dugan-Knight
@maxduganknight.bsky.social
📈 Climate Data Scientist
💼 at Deep Sky
🇨🇦 based in Toronto
👀 https://www.deepskyclimate.com/research
also Arsenal ⚽️ and hip hop 🎧
💼 at Deep Sky
🇨🇦 based in Toronto
👀 https://www.deepskyclimate.com/research
also Arsenal ⚽️ and hip hop 🎧
Hi @rutherdan.bsky.social I only just found this report and am loving the analysis. Did you by any chance make any of the data available? Specifically, I'm interested in Figure 6 and the two emissions trajectories.
I would love to see the raw data if you've got it. Thanks!
I would love to see the raw data if you've got it. Thanks!
October 14, 2025 at 6:33 PM
Hi @rutherdan.bsky.social I only just found this report and am loving the analysis. Did you by any chance make any of the data available? Specifically, I'm interested in Figure 6 and the two emissions trajectories.
I would love to see the raw data if you've got it. Thanks!
I would love to see the raw data if you've got it. Thanks!
Got it! Thanks for the tip 🙏
October 1, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Got it! Thanks for the tip 🙏
That is helpful thanks. I was just starting from a preindustrial equilibrium and not doing any differencing. Going to try your approach now
October 1, 2025 at 4:37 PM
That is helpful thanks. I was just starting from a preindustrial equilibrium and not doing any differencing. Going to try your approach now
Update: got it working. My results are not identical to Zeke's but close enough for my purposes. Thanks again
October 1, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Update: got it working. My results are not identical to Zeke's but close enough for my purposes. Thanks again
Thanks @jgilligan.org I'm currently trying to replicate the simulation on my computer but am having a hard time getting the configs right.
You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?
You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?
October 1, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Thanks @jgilligan.org I'm currently trying to replicate the simulation on my computer but am having a hard time getting the configs right.
You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?
You don't have a working example script by any chance do you?
@hausfath.bsky.social do you by any chance have the raw model results for this plot handy to share? I'd love to use this in some visualizations. I'll accept csv, json, txt, google sheet, whatever!
Thanks in advance 🙏
Thanks in advance 🙏
October 1, 2025 at 2:34 AM
@hausfath.bsky.social do you by any chance have the raw model results for this plot handy to share? I'd love to use this in some visualizations. I'll accept csv, json, txt, google sheet, whatever!
Thanks in advance 🙏
Thanks in advance 🙏
I sure did! Apologies
October 1, 2025 at 2:32 AM
I sure did! Apologies
Also lots of people in high risk areas end up getting coverage from FAIR plans which end up being subsidized by the tax base i.e. everyone else.
It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.
It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.
August 7, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Also lots of people in high risk areas end up getting coverage from FAIR plans which end up being subsidized by the tax base i.e. everyone else.
It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.
It’s a very precarious situation that is increasing costs for everyone.
Malibu prices are indicative of a larger trend of gross overvaluation that does not consider climate risk or the fact that it’s increasing every year.
There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.
There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.
August 7, 2025 at 12:14 PM
Malibu prices are indicative of a larger trend of gross overvaluation that does not consider climate risk or the fact that it’s increasing every year.
There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.
There aren’t many who can afford to lose their house entirely.
Thanks Kelly! Understood. If anything I’m even more concerned now about how poorly we all understand future climate risk
August 7, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Thanks Kelly! Understood. If anything I’m even more concerned now about how poorly we all understand future climate risk
(sorry forgot link) www.moodys.com/web/en/us/ca...
Catastrophe Risk Modeling – Moody’s
Quantify and manage natural catastrophe risk with Moody's RMS catastrophe modeling solutions. Gain a deeper understanding of your portfolio's exposures.
www.moodys.com
August 6, 2025 at 9:45 PM
(sorry forgot link) www.moodys.com/web/en/us/ca...
Interesting! Thanks for clarifying @kellyhereid.bsky.social - that does feel like it is often mis-represented.
I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here.
How near-to-present are we talking?
I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here.
How near-to-present are we talking?
August 6, 2025 at 9:45 PM
Interesting! Thanks for clarifying @kellyhereid.bsky.social - that does feel like it is often mis-represented.
I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here.
How near-to-present are we talking?
I feel like I frequently see Cat models described as forecasting future events. Like Moody's does here.
How near-to-present are we talking?
As I say in the article: "If insurance companies are worried, we should all be worried.”
The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.
The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.
August 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
As I say in the article: "If insurance companies are worried, we should all be worried.”
The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.
The rush to pay millions for these just-burned-down properties shows how ineffective the real estate market is at pricing climate risk today, and how painful it will be when that risk fully materializes.
Insurers have the most advanced modeling capabilities, the most up to date data, they are extremely financially motivated to accurately price risk, and as of this year in California they are allowed to use forward-looking predictive models (CAT models) to assess future wildfire risk.
August 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Insurers have the most advanced modeling capabilities, the most up to date data, they are extremely financially motivated to accurately price risk, and as of this year in California they are allowed to use forward-looking predictive models (CAT models) to assess future wildfire risk.
Let’s ignore all of the data on increasing wildfire risk due to climate change and just look at insurers’ actions. Our June report found that home insurers in California are raising prices and abandoning homeowners in the highest risk wildfire zip codes.
www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...
www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...
Insurers Retreat as 2025 Wildfire Risk Reaches Dangerous Levels
The home insurance market is in a perilous position as record fire risk comes into view for the 2025 season.
www.deepskyclimate.com
August 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Let’s ignore all of the data on increasing wildfire risk due to climate change and just look at insurers’ actions. Our June report found that home insurers in California are raising prices and abandoning homeowners in the highest risk wildfire zip codes.
www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...
www.deepskyclimate.com/blog/insurer...
"Before the fires, it would not have been possible to buy on the beach in Malibu at a price this low".
How you interpret this fact says a lot about how much attention you are paying to climate risk.
How you interpret this fact says a lot about how much attention you are paying to climate risk.
August 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
"Before the fires, it would not have been possible to buy on the beach in Malibu at a price this low".
How you interpret this fact says a lot about how much attention you are paying to climate risk.
How you interpret this fact says a lot about how much attention you are paying to climate risk.
But the difference between what the climate risk data show and what the other sources quoted in the article are saying is a perfect encapsulation of the madness in the US real estate sector right now.
August 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
But the difference between what the climate risk data show and what the other sources quoted in the article are saying is a perfect encapsulation of the madness in the US real estate sector right now.
To be clear, the author Lauren Edmonds does a terrific job laying out the positions and making a complex topic clear. The different viewpoints are part of what make it a great article.
And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.
And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.
August 6, 2025 at 8:08 PM
To be clear, the author Lauren Edmonds does a terrific job laying out the positions and making a complex topic clear. The different viewpoints are part of what make it a great article.
And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.
And the other sources quoted come at this from a very different angle from me and have different backgrounds.
Is it fair to say that the precipitation distribution is getting flatter — fewer days at the mean and more at the extremes at both ends (downpours and no rainfall) ?
I have found your “hydroclimate whiplash” phrase to resonate really well fwiw
I have found your “hydroclimate whiplash” phrase to resonate really well fwiw
July 17, 2025 at 12:10 AM
Is it fair to say that the precipitation distribution is getting flatter — fewer days at the mean and more at the extremes at both ends (downpours and no rainfall) ?
I have found your “hydroclimate whiplash” phrase to resonate really well fwiw
I have found your “hydroclimate whiplash” phrase to resonate really well fwiw
What hundreds of millions have experienced even if they live nowhere near these fires is the smoke 💨
Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.
Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.
July 16, 2025 at 7:57 PM
What hundreds of millions have experienced even if they live nowhere near these fires is the smoke 💨
Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.
Smoky air has real health effects. It also hints at a vicious cycle where climate change causes wildfires, and wildfires then emit enormous quantities of CO2 which contribute to climate change.
Hot and dry conditions have pushed risk to new levels and new parts of Canada 🥵
I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.
I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.
July 16, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Hot and dry conditions have pushed risk to new levels and new parts of Canada 🥵
I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.
I'm particularly worried about worsening conditions in more densely populated areas like southern parts of BC, Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.