Matt Winkelman
@mattwinkelman.bsky.social
Cats, phillies prospects, hopefully less unhinged rants. He/Him.
I write things at https://philliesminorthoughts.com/ / @philliesminorthoughts.com
I write things at https://philliesminorthoughts.com/ / @philliesminorthoughts.com
Yes, not quite as bright
November 12, 2025 at 3:23 AM
Yes, not quite as bright
I don't want to have to screen scrape to get like whiff rate, L/R splits, exit velocity (avg, 90th, max), and other just completely basic stats in the year 2025.
Sorry it is ranking season and being a commoner without data access is driving me insane again.
Sorry it is ranking season and being a commoner without data access is driving me insane again.
November 11, 2025 at 11:34 PM
I don't want to have to screen scrape to get like whiff rate, L/R splits, exit velocity (avg, 90th, max), and other just completely basic stats in the year 2025.
Sorry it is ranking season and being a commoner without data access is driving me insane again.
Sorry it is ranking season and being a commoner without data access is driving me insane again.
The point you seem to be making is that offense is the only thing that matters when comparing a player who is elite at one thing (Schwarber and offense) and one who is above average to great at everything (Tucker). Tucker instead of Schwarber in 2025 has Nick not playing the OF and no Max Kepler.
November 11, 2025 at 7:11 PM
The point you seem to be making is that offense is the only thing that matters when comparing a player who is elite at one thing (Schwarber and offense) and one who is above average to great at everything (Tucker). Tucker instead of Schwarber in 2025 has Nick not playing the OF and no Max Kepler.
You are talking about near even WAR when Tucker played 26 fewer games, also one of these players is a DH only and the others is an average to above average defensive right fielder and good base runner. Using fangraphs, Tucker is 5 runs better running and 14 runs better with defense + position.
November 11, 2025 at 7:09 PM
You are talking about near even WAR when Tucker played 26 fewer games, also one of these players is a DH only and the others is an average to above average defensive right fielder and good base runner. Using fangraphs, Tucker is 5 runs better running and 14 runs better with defense + position.
Now there are intangibles that matter in the clubhouse and they do lack power, but over the last 5 years Tucker has been a much better baseball player. I also expect he will cost near twice as much to sign.
November 11, 2025 at 6:38 PM
Now there are intangibles that matter in the clubhouse and they do lack power, but over the last 5 years Tucker has been a much better baseball player. I also expect he will cost near twice as much to sign.
Not really. It would be a change in structure (I also did mean Schwarber, not Tucker), less than a change in outcome. Tucker provides less power, but is equal or better at getting on base, while providing base running and defensive value. You would open up DH and fill RH.
November 11, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Not really. It would be a change in structure (I also did mean Schwarber, not Tucker), less than a change in outcome. Tucker provides less power, but is equal or better at getting on base, while providing base running and defensive value. You would open up DH and fill RH.
We might get some hints after this week's GMs meetings, maybe there will be some informative QO decisions, but yeah we really do not know other than probably the bottom teams will once again not try.
November 11, 2025 at 5:51 PM
We might get some hints after this week's GMs meetings, maybe there will be some informative QO decisions, but yeah we really do not know other than probably the bottom teams will once again not try.
Now if everyone is afraid of 2027 and the bottom drops out of the FA market, that changes things. If Bichette is looking at pillow deals or 4 year deals, sure. But like 6 for Bregman, 7-8 for Bichette, no thank you.
November 11, 2025 at 5:50 PM
Now if everyone is afraid of 2027 and the bottom drops out of the FA market, that changes things. If Bichette is looking at pillow deals or 4 year deals, sure. But like 6 for Bregman, 7-8 for Bichette, no thank you.
The Blue Jays should be all in on retaining Bichette for team building and emotional reasons. The Cubs should be all in on Tucker and if they miss they should spend. I don't know if the Phillies should be in the market for 5+ year deals for FAs other than maybe 5 for Kyle.
November 11, 2025 at 5:48 PM
The Blue Jays should be all in on retaining Bichette for team building and emotional reasons. The Cubs should be all in on Tucker and if they miss they should spend. I don't know if the Phillies should be in the market for 5+ year deals for FAs other than maybe 5 for Kyle.
They are one of the teams where the TV revenue isn't actually paid to the team so there can be some creative accounting?
November 10, 2025 at 10:57 PM
They are one of the teams where the TV revenue isn't actually paid to the team so there can be some creative accounting?
I am not sure it has happened since like Carrasco, but also you can't manage the future scared because you messed up in the past. I also know the guy they are slated to sign in 2 months is probably the best prospect they have been set to sign since I started doing this in 2012.
November 10, 2025 at 6:44 PM
I am not sure it has happened since like Carrasco, but also you can't manage the future scared because you messed up in the past. I also know the guy they are slated to sign in 2 months is probably the best prospect they have been set to sign since I started doing this in 2012.
The two picks coming back would be after the 4th, so you would be trading your 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and $2M for two 4ths. You also take on big long term money. I don't remember who the Phillies have lined up for 2027, but they have large money deals lined up for the next 3 signing periods already.
November 10, 2025 at 6:32 PM
The two picks coming back would be after the 4th, so you would be trading your 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 6th, and $2M for two 4ths. You also take on big long term money. I don't remember who the Phillies have lined up for 2027, but they have large money deals lined up for the next 3 signing periods already.
2023 you can at least say there is nothing left because they spent 75% of their money on Starlyn Caba and Wen Hui Pan and were able to quickly flip Caba into Luzardo in a great trade.
November 10, 2025 at 5:29 PM
2023 you can at least say there is nothing left because they spent 75% of their money on Starlyn Caba and Wen Hui Pan and were able to quickly flip Caba into Luzardo in a great trade.
I don’t know why the name Mark Reynolds keeps coming to mind. It is probably because him going to Colorado would be both fun and a disaster for the player
November 8, 2025 at 6:18 PM
I don’t know why the name Mark Reynolds keeps coming to mind. It is probably because him going to Colorado would be both fun and a disaster for the player
Ranger played 3 seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League, a league has not existing for the last 10 years. He was teammates with 3 total players who would reach the majors: Ricardo Pinto, Edubray Ramos, and Severino Gonzalez.
November 7, 2025 at 10:13 PM
Ranger played 3 seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League, a league has not existing for the last 10 years. He was teammates with 3 total players who would reach the majors: Ricardo Pinto, Edubray Ramos, and Severino Gonzalez.
You should get ready for it because it is going to happen. He is going to finally get PAID and I could not be happier for him to actually get a real contract.
November 7, 2025 at 10:10 PM
You should get ready for it because it is going to happen. He is going to finally get PAID and I could not be happier for him to actually get a real contract.