Matt Wilkes
@mattwilkes.bsky.social
I post a lot of useless stats and the occasional useful one, usually about the Cincinnati Reds.
The NL Wild Card race:
September 25, 2025 at 5:19 AM
The NL Wild Card race:
Here's how incorrect ball/strike calls have balanced out for the Reds over the full season.
There are probably better ways to measure the effects (e.g., run value gained/lost), but it certainly seems the ABS challenge system could benefit pitchers more than hitters.
There are probably better ways to measure the effects (e.g., run value gained/lost), but it certainly seems the ABS challenge system could benefit pitchers more than hitters.
September 23, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Here's how incorrect ball/strike calls have balanced out for the Reds over the full season.
There are probably better ways to measure the effects (e.g., run value gained/lost), but it certainly seems the ABS challenge system could benefit pitchers more than hitters.
There are probably better ways to measure the effects (e.g., run value gained/lost), but it certainly seems the ABS challenge system could benefit pitchers more than hitters.
Connor Phillips has an eye-popping 54.1% whiff rate on his sweeper this season.
That's #1 in baseball among pitchers who've thrown at least 100 sweepers.
That's #1 in baseball among pitchers who've thrown at least 100 sweepers.
September 16, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Connor Phillips has an eye-popping 54.1% whiff rate on his sweeper this season.
That's #1 in baseball among pitchers who've thrown at least 100 sweepers.
That's #1 in baseball among pitchers who've thrown at least 100 sweepers.
🚨 Todd Van Poppel shoutout on the Nebraska-Cincinnati broadcast
August 29, 2025 at 3:34 AM
🚨 Todd Van Poppel shoutout on the Nebraska-Cincinnati broadcast
me when someone mentions the Reds potentially signing Kyle Schwarber
August 29, 2025 at 1:52 AM
me when someone mentions the Reds potentially signing Kyle Schwarber
Looked at the players with the most GIDP that resulted in a specific teammate being out on the bases. Here are the top combos (player with GIDP/player out):
August 23, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Looked at the players with the most GIDP that resulted in a specific teammate being out on the bases. Here are the top combos (player with GIDP/player out):
The Reds' 7 runs in the 2nd inning were the most they've scored in an inning against the Brewers since June 30, 2018, when they scored 8 runs in the 7th inning.
That was when Michael Lorenzen did this:
That was when Michael Lorenzen did this:
August 15, 2025 at 11:51 PM
The Reds' 7 runs in the 2nd inning were the most they've scored in an inning against the Brewers since June 30, 2018, when they scored 8 runs in the 7th inning.
That was when Michael Lorenzen did this:
That was when Michael Lorenzen did this:
Geno is already bringing the good vibes to Seattle
August 1, 2025 at 3:26 AM
Geno is already bringing the good vibes to Seattle
Nick Krall in about 45 minutes:
July 31, 2025 at 9:39 PM
Nick Krall in about 45 minutes:
Me when Nick Krall talks to the media
July 30, 2025 at 10:15 PM
Me when Nick Krall talks to the media
Reds' most impactful plays of the first half by Win Probability Added (WPA):
⚾️ Benson, .587 — game-tying 3B vs. COL (July 12)
⚾️ Fraley, .544 — go-ahead grand slam vs. SEA (April 17)
⚾️ Elly, .432 — game-tying HR vs. CHW (May 13)
⚾️ CES, .371 — go-ahead slam vs. BOS (July 2)
⚾️ Benson, .587 — game-tying 3B vs. COL (July 12)
⚾️ Fraley, .544 — go-ahead grand slam vs. SEA (April 17)
⚾️ Elly, .432 — game-tying HR vs. CHW (May 13)
⚾️ CES, .371 — go-ahead slam vs. BOS (July 2)
July 15, 2025 at 11:20 PM
Reds' most impactful plays of the first half by Win Probability Added (WPA):
⚾️ Benson, .587 — game-tying 3B vs. COL (July 12)
⚾️ Fraley, .544 — go-ahead grand slam vs. SEA (April 17)
⚾️ Elly, .432 — game-tying HR vs. CHW (May 13)
⚾️ CES, .371 — go-ahead slam vs. BOS (July 2)
⚾️ Benson, .587 — game-tying 3B vs. COL (July 12)
⚾️ Fraley, .544 — go-ahead grand slam vs. SEA (April 17)
⚾️ Elly, .432 — game-tying HR vs. CHW (May 13)
⚾️ CES, .371 — go-ahead slam vs. BOS (July 2)
Reds' longest home runs of the first half:
T1. Elly De La Cruz (451 ft)
T1. CES (451 ft)
3. Elly De La Cruz (441 ft)
4. CES (439 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
T1. Elly De La Cruz (451 ft)
T1. CES (451 ft)
3. Elly De La Cruz (441 ft)
4. CES (439 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
July 15, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reds' longest home runs of the first half:
T1. Elly De La Cruz (451 ft)
T1. CES (451 ft)
3. Elly De La Cruz (441 ft)
4. CES (439 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
T1. Elly De La Cruz (451 ft)
T1. CES (451 ft)
3. Elly De La Cruz (441 ft)
4. CES (439 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
T5. Elly De La Cruz (436 ft)
Highest Reds exit velocities from the first half:
1. Elly De La Cruz, 117.4 mph
2. Noelvi Marte, 116.7 mph
3. Elly De La Cruz, 114.9 mph
4. Elly De La Cruz, 114.8 mph
5. Elly De La Cruz, 113.3 mph
1. Elly De La Cruz, 117.4 mph
2. Noelvi Marte, 116.7 mph
3. Elly De La Cruz, 114.9 mph
4. Elly De La Cruz, 114.8 mph
5. Elly De La Cruz, 113.3 mph
July 14, 2025 at 4:22 PM
Highest Reds exit velocities from the first half:
1. Elly De La Cruz, 117.4 mph
2. Noelvi Marte, 116.7 mph
3. Elly De La Cruz, 114.9 mph
4. Elly De La Cruz, 114.8 mph
5. Elly De La Cruz, 113.3 mph
1. Elly De La Cruz, 117.4 mph
2. Noelvi Marte, 116.7 mph
3. Elly De La Cruz, 114.9 mph
4. Elly De La Cruz, 114.8 mph
5. Elly De La Cruz, 113.3 mph
Five MLB players have homered in four straight games this season.
Two play for the Reds: Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson
Two play for the Reds: Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson
June 15, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Five MLB players have homered in four straight games this season.
Two play for the Reds: Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson
Two play for the Reds: Elly De La Cruz and Will Benson
The drought is over. I never thought I'd see the day.
The Ohio Cup is coming home.
The Ohio Cup is coming home.
June 10, 2025 at 1:30 AM
The drought is over. I never thought I'd see the day.
The Ohio Cup is coming home.
The Ohio Cup is coming home.
Zuck: The average American has three friends.
May 1, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Zuck: The average American has three friends.
Decline in whiffs/strikeouts is a bit worrisome for Nick Lodolo.
In two-strike counts, he's gone on to punch out 30% of hitters (6th-lowest among pitchers w/ 50+ two-strike counts). Before 2025, Lodolo had a career 49% K-rate after getting to two strikes.
Small sample, but something to monitor.
In two-strike counts, he's gone on to punch out 30% of hitters (6th-lowest among pitchers w/ 50+ two-strike counts). Before 2025, Lodolo had a career 49% K-rate after getting to two strikes.
Small sample, but something to monitor.
April 22, 2025 at 5:06 PM
Decline in whiffs/strikeouts is a bit worrisome for Nick Lodolo.
In two-strike counts, he's gone on to punch out 30% of hitters (6th-lowest among pitchers w/ 50+ two-strike counts). Before 2025, Lodolo had a career 49% K-rate after getting to two strikes.
Small sample, but something to monitor.
In two-strike counts, he's gone on to punch out 30% of hitters (6th-lowest among pitchers w/ 50+ two-strike counts). Before 2025, Lodolo had a career 49% K-rate after getting to two strikes.
Small sample, but something to monitor.