‼️⬇️ The most important part:

politicscentre.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/news-and-eve...

Largely driven by change in party image, i.e. voters not seeing Labour as a working class party anymore... (also from Evans & Tilley 2012:

Absolutely not garbage. Regardless of policies & what the party delivered, the composition of the Labour Party became significantly more middle class under Blair

Graph below is from Evans and Tilley doi.org/10.1017/s002... and shows Labour becoming less wc and more mc in early 2000s

Agreed! And adding that:

1. "used to" = we're talking pre-2005 (including graph below) - but I'm wondering: are we sure these voters *ever* voted Labour? or are they from the economically conservative part of the working class electorate that always voted Con/ at least since Thatcher?

This take on #BBCNewscast *completely* misses the point about how it's precisely losing votes to the LD and Greens that can make Labour lose seats to Reform ...

(iii) Larger swings in Scotland, where Labour benefited from a double anti-incumbent effect

Between 2021 and 2024, the percentage of Scottish voters disapproving of both the Scottish and UK governments went from 18.3% to 58.7%

⬇️ These voters were significantly more likely to vote Labour

(5/6)

This led to greater fragmentation on the political right:

⬇️ in most seats won by Labour from the Conservatives in England, there are close to two 'effective parties' on the right; on the left, the Lab/ LD/ Green vote is more concentrated

Allowing Labour to win these seats with fewer votes

(4/6)

(ii) lower levels of tactical voting between the Conservatives and Reform, leading to greater fragmentation on the political right

⬇️ voters who prefer Reform still voted for Reform in Conservative v. Labour races; and Conservative preferers voted Tory in Labour vs. Reform seats

(3/6)

(i) Increased tactical voting between Labour and the Lib Dems

⬇️ LD preferers voting Lab in Lab-Con races, and vice-versa
⬇️ some sincere Green voting in safe Lab seats

This reduced 'wasted votes' where Labour didn't win & surplus votes in safe seats

(2/6)

This is what Labour’s 2024 victory looks like ⬇️

1. They lost 'surplus' votes in safe seats
2. Won seats, esp. from Tories, with low vote shares
3. Outperformed in Scotland

We provide new evidence and three explanations for this outcome, all in the context of anti-incumbent voting

(1/6)

New paper on the most disproportionate UK election: how Labour doubled its seat share with a 1.6 point increase in vote share in 2024!

With @profjanegreen.bsky.social
Out now in @politicalquarterly.bsky.social

Link: doi.org/10.1111/1467...
Short thread below🧵