One more plot, now for all sibship sizes. The coin toss + dynamic stopping model reproduces the same ever-growing binomial deviations shown in the paper (larger at sibship size 5 than at size 3). #dataBS

(I figured out how to give Plotly facets different x-axis ranges!)

Here is a bar graph like the paper's figure 2, but this is for my simulated data where the probability of a boy is a 51.9% coin toss & the stopping probability is reduced if the children are all boys or all girls. It looks strikingly like Figure 2 in the paper.

The chance of a third boy after two boys at sibship size 3 was 49.5%, well below the study population of 51.9%. All third children after 2 boys? 51.2%.

The deviations from the binomial aren't driven by a third child clustered with the first two, but by the distribution of the first two kids.

National Polls in 2021 showed people thought restrictions were worth it; what is the evidence this was a salient issue in the 2021 VA elections?

I added some follow up my original post, now that the jackpot was won on Friday.

Using the drawings starting Jan 21 as the baseline was the most favorable comparison I could have made. Other recent drawings under the old rules from earlier in 2024 had jackpots that grew even faster. #dataBS

The Mega Millions jackpot is up to $326M. They changed their prizes and upped the ticket price to $5 claiming his would lead to "faster growing" jackpots.

But it's actually growing slower than it did under the old rules, which was $344M under the old rules at draw 19.

I'm still wrapping my head around how much solar power is being generated in Texas. At this very moment, in Texas, solar is 45% of energy generation.

But, there's a bill in the legislature (that passed the senate) to sabotage all this solar (and wind) growth.

www.texastribune.org/2025/04/16/t...

Seems bad.

I know you have seen this before but it is the perfect response to the magazine’s nonsense. And my favorite accidental astrology debunking ever.

Bird flu even got the chickens at the kid museum.

After floundering on #AdventOfCode for the last week, my reaction to Day 21:

Thanks to the FontAwesome extension for
@quarto.org I now have a Bluesky icon linking to my Bluesky profile on my website:

I tried out the Blue Sky API for searching via python, dusting off my old "TwitterWordle" code that solved Wordle based on shares of 🟨⬜⬜🟩🟩, etc.

It still works! It needed ~300 posts from the search_posts endpoint to solve today's puzzle.

(Image has no spoilers.)

#dataBS

re: unix commands, I would say there is a high chance you have seen this xkcd but just in case for anyone who hasn’t:

imgs.xkcd.com/comics/tar_2...

Unless you are a *fan* of any of the remaining four teams, in which case it’s one of the most stressful and gut-wrenching days of the year! 😬

Playoff baseball! 🫣