Manuel Alvarez-Rivera
@malvarezrivera.bsky.social
The main difference compared to abortion is that there's no broad middle that's neither 100% in favor nor 100% against; that vanished long ago, with solid majorities in all but a few states for many years now. But some argue SCOTUS didn't want to hand Democrats a ready-made issue for the mid-terms.
November 11, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The main difference compared to abortion is that there's no broad middle that's neither 100% in favor nor 100% against; that vanished long ago, with solid majorities in all but a few states for many years now. But some argue SCOTUS didn't want to hand Democrats a ready-made issue for the mid-terms.
Recently a prominent statehood backer wondered whether it was in the best interests of P.R. to become a state of an authoritarian U.S. And the U.S. needs to reconcile itself with its transformation into a multi-racial nation - but that might take a long time to happen (and very unlikely under DJT).
November 6, 2025 at 12:51 AM
Recently a prominent statehood backer wondered whether it was in the best interests of P.R. to become a state of an authoritarian U.S. And the U.S. needs to reconcile itself with its transformation into a multi-racial nation - but that might take a long time to happen (and very unlikely under DJT).
At any rate, this has resulted in an increasingly polarized political climate, in which finding common ground - never an easy task - is increasingly difficult. That said, the lack of a consensus on the status issue both in P.R. and the U.S. means the status quo is likely to persist by default.
November 5, 2025 at 7:50 PM
At any rate, this has resulted in an increasingly polarized political climate, in which finding common ground - never an easy task - is increasingly difficult. That said, the lack of a consensus on the status issue both in P.R. and the U.S. means the status quo is likely to persist by default.
Just about every polling cross-tabulation last year showed PPD as an aging party, very weak among young voters but much better off among older ones. And the party has been hit disproportionately hard by the decline in party-ticket voting, particularly among younger voters.
November 5, 2025 at 7:43 PM
Just about every polling cross-tabulation last year showed PPD as an aging party, very weak among young voters but much better off among older ones. And the party has been hit disproportionately hard by the decline in party-ticket voting, particularly among younger voters.
For a long time polls suggested that if forced to choose between statehood and independence, PPD/Commonwealth backers would opt largely for statehood or abstention, with a smaller minority for independence. But PPD (and in all likelihood Commonwealth) has been on a steady decline for some time now.
November 5, 2025 at 7:43 PM
For a long time polls suggested that if forced to choose between statehood and independence, PPD/Commonwealth backers would opt largely for statehood or abstention, with a smaller minority for independence. But PPD (and in all likelihood Commonwealth) has been on a steady decline for some time now.
First , there are other status alternatives. There's free association in the style of the Marshall Islands, but it's essentially quasi-independence, and as such rejected by many in the pro-Commonwealth PPD. And more recently some have advocated reunification with Spain, but they appear to be few.
November 5, 2025 at 7:35 PM
First , there are other status alternatives. There's free association in the style of the Marshall Islands, but it's essentially quasi-independence, and as such rejected by many in the pro-Commonwealth PPD. And more recently some have advocated reunification with Spain, but they appear to be few.
And you could say some were early seared.
November 5, 2025 at 7:52 AM
And you could say some were early seared.
Also, DJT is so widely disliked in P.R. that even some otherwise very conservative friends of mine couldn't bring themselves to vote for him. And when all ballots - including write-ins, blank, invalid, etc. - are considered Kamala Harris polled 63.7% to 23.2% for DJT.
November 5, 2025 at 4:42 AM
Also, DJT is so widely disliked in P.R. that even some otherwise very conservative friends of mine couldn't bring themselves to vote for him. And when all ballots - including write-ins, blank, invalid, etc. - are considered Kamala Harris polled 63.7% to 23.2% for DJT.
It is said the Cuomintang government has fled to Staten Island.
November 5, 2025 at 3:51 AM
It is said the Cuomintang government has fled to Staten Island.
Como quiera, si se calculan los resultados de los plebiscitos sobre total de papeletas estatales - que en ausencia del dato de votaron según lista se usa desde 2016 como sustituto de dicha cifra - la estadidad se quedó en 48.3% de todos los votantes, frente a 50.6% en 2020. /FIN
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Como quiera, si se calculan los resultados de los plebiscitos sobre total de papeletas estatales - que en ausencia del dato de votaron según lista se usa desde 2016 como sustituto de dicha cifra - la estadidad se quedó en 48.3% de todos los votantes, frente a 50.6% en 2020. /FIN
Es decir, puede haber habido casos de electores que votaron la papeleta del plebiscito pero no la estatal, y de hecho en 392 colegios regulares hubo más papeletas del plebiscito que estatales. Pero en otros colegios hubo igual (1,398) o mayor cantidad (2,700) de las estatales. 5/
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 AM
Es decir, puede haber habido casos de electores que votaron la papeleta del plebiscito pero no la estatal, y de hecho en 392 colegios regulares hubo más papeletas del plebiscito que estatales. Pero en otros colegios hubo igual (1,398) o mayor cantidad (2,700) de las estatales. 5/
En las unidades regulares la brecha se abrió a cuenta de electores que no depositaron la papeleta del plebiscito, aunque sí depositaron la papeleta estatal, en una aparente señal de protesta. Dicho eso, se trata de una diferencia neta. 4/
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 AM
En las unidades regulares la brecha se abrió a cuenta de electores que no depositaron la papeleta del plebiscito, aunque sí depositaron la papeleta estatal, en una aparente señal de protesta. Dicho eso, se trata de una diferencia neta. 4/
En el caso de las unidades regulares de 2024, la brecha fue más marcada donde el PNP - y por ende la estadidad - estaban más débiles, y mucho menos pronunciada donde estaban más fuertes: 3/
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 AM
En el caso de las unidades regulares de 2024, la brecha fue más marcada donde el PNP - y por ende la estadidad - estaban más débiles, y mucho menos pronunciada donde estaban más fuertes: 3/
En particular, llama la atención el crecimiento exponencial de la brecha en las unidades regulares de voto presencial el día del evento: 2/
November 5, 2025 at 3:10 AM
En particular, llama la atención el crecimiento exponencial de la brecha en las unidades regulares de voto presencial el día del evento: 2/
Also, Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado.
November 5, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Also, Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado.
Because they might not be Democrats for long, and switch to GOP the moment they think it will suit them politically. Richard Shelby of Alabama comes to mind.
November 5, 2025 at 1:46 AM
Because they might not be Democrats for long, and switch to GOP the moment they think it will suit them politically. Richard Shelby of Alabama comes to mind.
I should also note that blank/invalid voting in Puerto Rico is usually negligible (and thus makes little difference); 99.2% cast valid votes in the 2024 gubernatorial election, while the remaining 0.8% included write-in votes, undervotes and overvotes in addition to wholly blank and invalid ballots.
November 5, 2025 at 1:25 AM
I should also note that blank/invalid voting in Puerto Rico is usually negligible (and thus makes little difference); 99.2% cast valid votes in the 2024 gubernatorial election, while the remaining 0.8% included write-in votes, undervotes and overvotes in addition to wholly blank and invalid ballots.
At the regular polling station level, the correlation between the share of blank ballots in the plebiscite and the PPD share of the vote for governor was a moderately high 0.68. However, not all PPD voters cast blank ballots; as in 2012, many voted for free association for one reason or another.
November 5, 2025 at 1:25 AM
At the regular polling station level, the correlation between the share of blank ballots in the plebiscite and the PPD share of the vote for governor was a moderately high 0.68. However, not all PPD voters cast blank ballots; as in 2012, many voted for free association for one reason or another.
For reference, these were the results of the 2024 gubernatorial election in the election day regular polling stations by PPD % share (and yes, they were an unmitigated disaster for the party, which had its worst-ever election result and for the first time in its history finished in third place):
November 5, 2025 at 1:25 AM
For reference, these were the results of the 2024 gubernatorial election in the election day regular polling stations by PPD % share (and yes, they were an unmitigated disaster for the party, which had its worst-ever election result and for the first time in its history finished in third place):
First, blank votes in the P.R. 2024 status plebiscite show a strong relationship with the results polled in regular i.e. election day polling stations ("unidades regulares") by PPD, with many of their voters protesting the exclusion of the Commonwealth (status quo) option backed by the party:
November 5, 2025 at 1:25 AM
First, blank votes in the P.R. 2024 status plebiscite show a strong relationship with the results polled in regular i.e. election day polling stations ("unidades regulares") by PPD, with many of their voters protesting the exclusion of the Commonwealth (status quo) option backed by the party:
A flag change was discussed under B.J. Vorster - Verwoerd's successor - but nothing came out of it. As for Musk, his father was involved for a while with the liberal, anti-apartheid and largely English-speaking PFP, even standing as their 1981 election nominee in Pretoria's Sunnyside constituency.
November 2, 2025 at 6:44 PM
A flag change was discussed under B.J. Vorster - Verwoerd's successor - but nothing came out of it. As for Musk, his father was involved for a while with the liberal, anti-apartheid and largely English-speaking PFP, even standing as their 1981 election nominee in Pretoria's Sunnyside constituency.
The racist nostalgia around the flag of S.A. under white minority rule and apartheid is a bit ironic when one considers that back in the day die-hard Afrikaner supremacists hated it on account of featuring in the "bowtie" the Union Jack - the very embodiment of the despised "liberalist" values.
November 2, 2025 at 2:54 PM
The racist nostalgia around the flag of S.A. under white minority rule and apartheid is a bit ironic when one considers that back in the day die-hard Afrikaner supremacists hated it on account of featuring in the "bowtie" the Union Jack - the very embodiment of the despised "liberalist" values.