Malte Meissner
@maltemeissner.bsky.social
Data Science Manager | he/him | mainly here to talk about http://vorcast.org
I wrote a full post breaking down my wins, misses, and what’s next for Vorcast: www.vorcast.org/the-untether...
February 24, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I wrote a full post breaking down my wins, misses, and what’s next for Vorcast: www.vorcast.org/the-untether...
✅ Predicted the Greens would underperform
✅ Called BSW missing the Bundestag—1.5 months before polls did
✅ Expected Die Linke to beat polls (but missed the surge)
❌ My model was bearish on the FDP for too long
✅ Called BSW missing the Bundestag—1.5 months before polls did
✅ Expected Die Linke to beat polls (but missed the surge)
❌ My model was bearish on the FDP for too long
February 24, 2025 at 7:29 PM
✅ Predicted the Greens would underperform
✅ Called BSW missing the Bundestag—1.5 months before polls did
✅ Expected Die Linke to beat polls (but missed the surge)
❌ My model was bearish on the FDP for too long
✅ Called BSW missing the Bundestag—1.5 months before polls did
✅ Expected Die Linke to beat polls (but missed the surge)
❌ My model was bearish on the FDP for too long
✅ Called a grand coalition as the likeliest outcome
✅ Predicted the SPD would slightly outperform polls
❌ Underestimated the AfD
✅ Predicted the SPD would slightly outperform polls
❌ Underestimated the AfD
February 24, 2025 at 7:29 PM
✅ Called a grand coalition as the likeliest outcome
✅ Predicted the SPD would slightly outperform polls
❌ Underestimated the AfD
✅ Predicted the SPD would slightly outperform polls
❌ Underestimated the AfD
There was one more poll from INSA. So this is the final final update. The poll didn't shift anything beyond 0.1% for some parties. Top takeaways remain unchanged.
February 22, 2025 at 12:58 PM
There was one more poll from INSA. So this is the final final update. The poll didn't shift anything beyond 0.1% for some parties. Top takeaways remain unchanged.
If you look at the different party trajectories from the past 3 months some obvious trends stick out:
- The ascent of the #AFD, #DieLinke, and #DieGruenen
- How little both the #CDUCSU and the #SPD moved the needle during their campaigns
- #BSW was always gonna come down according to my model
- The ascent of the #AFD, #DieLinke, and #DieGruenen
- How little both the #CDUCSU and the #SPD moved the needle during their campaigns
- #BSW was always gonna come down according to my model
February 21, 2025 at 5:35 PM
On my website I only show a simple 2 week polling average to highlight the difference to my model. My own Vorcast Polling average weighs every poll by the past performance of the polling institute and by time. More info here: vorcast.org/model
The Vorcast Model - VORCAST
(updated February 09, 2025) Here are the latest predictions for the next German federal election that will be held on February 23rd, 2025: The thick lines are my model’s predictions for the final vote...
vorcast.org
February 9, 2025 at 6:24 PM
On my website I only show a simple 2 week polling average to highlight the difference to my model. My own Vorcast Polling average weighs every poll by the past performance of the polling institute and by time. More info here: vorcast.org/model
Durch diese Umfrage verliert die #CDUCSU weiter leicht in meiner Vorhersage auf vorcast.org
Die #Linke kann sich langsam wieder mehr Hoffnung auf einen Einzug haben, laut meinem Modell steht sie bei 4.7%.
Die #Linke kann sich langsam wieder mehr Hoffnung auf einen Einzug haben, laut meinem Modell steht sie bei 4.7%.
January 30, 2025 at 10:04 AM
Durch diese Umfrage verliert die #CDUCSU weiter leicht in meiner Vorhersage auf vorcast.org
Die #Linke kann sich langsam wieder mehr Hoffnung auf einen Einzug haben, laut meinem Modell steht sie bei 4.7%.
Die #Linke kann sich langsam wieder mehr Hoffnung auf einen Einzug haben, laut meinem Modell steht sie bei 4.7%.
Die beste Umfrage für die #AFD seit die Ampel auseinander gebrochen ist.
Auch in meinem Modell legt die Partei weiter zu, aber ist (noch) unter 20% 👇
vorcast.org
Auch in meinem Modell legt die Partei weiter zu, aber ist (noch) unter 20% 👇
vorcast.org
January 29, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Die beste Umfrage für die #AFD seit die Ampel auseinander gebrochen ist.
Auch in meinem Modell legt die Partei weiter zu, aber ist (noch) unter 20% 👇
vorcast.org
Auch in meinem Modell legt die Partei weiter zu, aber ist (noch) unter 20% 👇
vorcast.org
Für mehr Details und interaktive Chart könnt ihr direkt auf den Blog gehen: vorcast.org
Welcome to Vorcast - VORCAST
If you’re here, you’re either interested in German politics, data journalism, or both. The Vorcast Model is a prediction model for the German federal elections that is more precise and less noisy than...
vorcast.org
January 27, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Für mehr Details und interaktive Chart könnt ihr direkt auf den Blog gehen: vorcast.org