Malte Meissner
@maltemeissner.bsky.social
Data Science Manager | he/him | mainly here to talk about http://vorcast.org
I correctly called the #Bundestagswahl2025 back in December.
My model wasn’t perfect, but I did predict that a grand coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) was the most likely outcome—more likely than the polls suggested. Here’s how my predictions held up: 🧵⬇️
My model wasn’t perfect, but I did predict that a grand coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) was the most likely outcome—more likely than the polls suggested. Here’s how my predictions held up: 🧵⬇️
February 24, 2025 at 7:29 PM
I correctly called the #Bundestagswahl2025 back in December.
My model wasn’t perfect, but I did predict that a grand coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) was the most likely outcome—more likely than the polls suggested. Here’s how my predictions held up: 🧵⬇️
My model wasn’t perfect, but I did predict that a grand coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) was the most likely outcome—more likely than the polls suggested. Here’s how my predictions held up: 🧵⬇️
New predictions for the #Bundestagswahl2025
#FDP now more solidly before 5% in my forecast but well within the margin of error.
#FDP now more solidly before 5% in my forecast but well within the margin of error.
February 19, 2025 at 7:26 PM
New predictions for the #Bundestagswahl2025
#FDP now more solidly before 5% in my forecast but well within the margin of error.
#FDP now more solidly before 5% in my forecast but well within the margin of error.
New predictions on vorcast.org! #DieLinke continues its climb, looking more and more like a safe bet for reentry of parliament after the #Bundestagswahl2025
February 18, 2025 at 5:28 PM
New predictions on vorcast.org! #DieLinke continues its climb, looking more and more like a safe bet for reentry of parliament after the #Bundestagswahl2025
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025
As designed, the polls and my model are converging. Biggest discrepancy between them remains the #AFD, followed by the #SPD.
More charts on vorcast.org
As designed, the polls and my model are converging. Biggest discrepancy between them remains the #AFD, followed by the #SPD.
More charts on vorcast.org
February 17, 2025 at 8:08 PM
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025
As designed, the polls and my model are converging. Biggest discrepancy between them remains the #AFD, followed by the #SPD.
More charts on vorcast.org
As designed, the polls and my model are converging. Biggest discrepancy between them remains the #AFD, followed by the #SPD.
More charts on vorcast.org
Model update with the latest two polls. #DieLinke continues to gain some ground, not much movement for the other parties.
Interactive charts, as always, can be found on vorcast.org
Interactive charts, as always, can be found on vorcast.org
February 14, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Model update with the latest two polls. #DieLinke continues to gain some ground, not much movement for the other parties.
Interactive charts, as always, can be found on vorcast.org
Interactive charts, as always, can be found on vorcast.org
With the latest round of polls released a grand coalition between the #SPD and #CDUCSU is still possible (according to my model). It’s going to be a very close #Bundestagswahl2025.
Also, #DieLinke is looking more and more likely to enter the Bundestag.
Also, #DieLinke is looking more and more likely to enter the Bundestag.
February 13, 2025 at 5:42 PM
With the latest round of polls released a grand coalition between the #SPD and #CDUCSU is still possible (according to my model). It’s going to be a very close #Bundestagswahl2025.
Also, #DieLinke is looking more and more likely to enter the Bundestag.
Also, #DieLinke is looking more and more likely to enter the Bundestag.
The #Bundestagswahl2025 is 2 weeks away so there's not much difference between the Vorcast Polling Average and the Vorcast Model anymore..but that difference is important.
According to my model, a grand coalition between the #CDUCSU and the #SPD is still possible, barely.
According to my model, a grand coalition between the #CDUCSU and the #SPD is still possible, barely.
February 9, 2025 at 6:24 PM
The #Bundestagswahl2025 is 2 weeks away so there's not much difference between the Vorcast Polling Average and the Vorcast Model anymore..but that difference is important.
According to my model, a grand coalition between the #CDUCSU and the #SPD is still possible, barely.
According to my model, a grand coalition between the #CDUCSU and the #SPD is still possible, barely.
With 2.5 weeks to go until the #Bundestagswahl, these things are still possible:
- #FDP, #DieLinke & #BSW all have a shot at entering the Bundestag
- The #SPD could end up in arm's reach to the #AFD (unlikely according to my model, impossible according to the polls)
New predictions on vorcast.org
- #FDP, #DieLinke & #BSW all have a shot at entering the Bundestag
- The #SPD could end up in arm's reach to the #AFD (unlikely according to my model, impossible according to the polls)
New predictions on vorcast.org
February 6, 2025 at 6:12 PM
With 2.5 weeks to go until the #Bundestagswahl, these things are still possible:
- #FDP, #DieLinke & #BSW all have a shot at entering the Bundestag
- The #SPD could end up in arm's reach to the #AFD (unlikely according to my model, impossible according to the polls)
New predictions on vorcast.org
- #FDP, #DieLinke & #BSW all have a shot at entering the Bundestag
- The #SPD could end up in arm's reach to the #AFD (unlikely according to my model, impossible according to the polls)
New predictions on vorcast.org
First predictions up since last week's drama in the #Bundestagswahl2025.
Out of the two released polls, one was bad for the #CDUCSU but it's too early to detect any major shifts.
Out of the two released polls, one was bad for the #CDUCSU but it's too early to detect any major shifts.
February 4, 2025 at 2:54 PM
First predictions up since last week's drama in the #Bundestagswahl2025.
Out of the two released polls, one was bad for the #CDUCSU but it's too early to detect any major shifts.
Out of the two released polls, one was bad for the #CDUCSU but it's too early to detect any major shifts.
3 (!) polls released yesterday, and though one of them had the #SPD at 17% overall the only parties that have gained in my forecast are #DieGruenen and the #AFD.
To see if there was a sizeable shift after this week's drama, we'll have to wait till next week.
vorcast.org
To see if there was a sizeable shift after this week's drama, we'll have to wait till next week.
vorcast.org
Welcome to Vorcast - VORCAST
If you’re here, you’re either interested in German politics, data journalism, or both. The Vorcast Model is a prediction model for the German federal elections that is more precise and less noisy than...
vorcast.org
January 31, 2025 at 7:42 AM
3 (!) polls released yesterday, and though one of them had the #SPD at 17% overall the only parties that have gained in my forecast are #DieGruenen and the #AFD.
To see if there was a sizeable shift after this week's drama, we'll have to wait till next week.
vorcast.org
To see if there was a sizeable shift after this week's drama, we'll have to wait till next week.
vorcast.org
Following the drama in the #Bundestag yesterday (and probably today), I'll be watching every new poll closely. A real effect won't be noticeable until early next week.
This poll is already incorporated into the latest predictions on vorcast.org.
This poll is already incorporated into the latest predictions on vorcast.org.
January 30, 2025 at 9:55 AM
Following the drama in the #Bundestag yesterday (and probably today), I'll be watching every new poll closely. A real effect won't be noticeable until early next week.
This poll is already incorporated into the latest predictions on vorcast.org.
This poll is already incorporated into the latest predictions on vorcast.org.
New predictions up on vorcast.org
Taking the long-term view: Only the #AFD and #DieGruenen have changed significantly in my forecast.
No other party has managed to move the needle. Also no effect in the polls or my model from @_FriedrichMerz's immigration push.
Taking the long-term view: Only the #AFD and #DieGruenen have changed significantly in my forecast.
No other party has managed to move the needle. Also no effect in the polls or my model from @_FriedrichMerz's immigration push.
January 29, 2025 at 11:39 AM
New predictions up on vorcast.org
Taking the long-term view: Only the #AFD and #DieGruenen have changed significantly in my forecast.
No other party has managed to move the needle. Also no effect in the polls or my model from @_FriedrichMerz's immigration push.
Taking the long-term view: Only the #AFD and #DieGruenen have changed significantly in my forecast.
No other party has managed to move the needle. Also no effect in the polls or my model from @_FriedrichMerz's immigration push.
Ab jetzt gibt es Vorcast auch auf deutsch 🇩🇪 #Bundestagswahl2025
In meinem neuesten Post erkläre ich warum sich mein Modell mit den Umfragen nicht verträgt und warum ich langsam nervös werde: www.vorcast.org/mein-modell-...
🧵
In meinem neuesten Post erkläre ich warum sich mein Modell mit den Umfragen nicht verträgt und warum ich langsam nervös werde: www.vorcast.org/mein-modell-...
🧵
January 27, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Ab jetzt gibt es Vorcast auch auf deutsch 🇩🇪 #Bundestagswahl2025
In meinem neuesten Post erkläre ich warum sich mein Modell mit den Umfragen nicht verträgt und warum ich langsam nervös werde: www.vorcast.org/mein-modell-...
🧵
In meinem neuesten Post erkläre ich warum sich mein Modell mit den Umfragen nicht verträgt und warum ich langsam nervös werde: www.vorcast.org/mein-modell-...
🧵
It's only by 0.5% but the #AFD has overtaken the #SPD in my forecast for the #Bundestagswahl2025. This is the result of the fundamentals weight decreasing in my models as we get closer to the election.
Interactive charts: vorcast.org
Interactive charts: vorcast.org
January 26, 2025 at 7:36 PM
It's only by 0.5% but the #AFD has overtaken the #SPD in my forecast for the #Bundestagswahl2025. This is the result of the fundamentals weight decreasing in my models as we get closer to the election.
Interactive charts: vorcast.org
Interactive charts: vorcast.org
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025
The #SPD and #AFD are neck to neck now in my forecast. Despite the polls, the #SPD is still predicted to come out on top of the #AFD but just barely.
Interactive charts here: vorcast.org
The #SPD and #AFD are neck to neck now in my forecast. Despite the polls, the #SPD is still predicted to come out on top of the #AFD but just barely.
Interactive charts here: vorcast.org
January 24, 2025 at 12:08 PM
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025
The #SPD and #AFD are neck to neck now in my forecast. Despite the polls, the #SPD is still predicted to come out on top of the #AFD but just barely.
Interactive charts here: vorcast.org
The #SPD and #AFD are neck to neck now in my forecast. Despite the polls, the #SPD is still predicted to come out on top of the #AFD but just barely.
Interactive charts here: vorcast.org
With one month left until the #Bundestagswahl2025 I wanted to talk about my model, the polls, and why I'm getting nervous.
vorcast.org/notes-from-a...
Quick breakdown of the post in the 🧵
vorcast.org/notes-from-a...
Quick breakdown of the post in the 🧵
Notes from a nervous forecaster: my model and the polls don’t get along - VORCAST
We’re one month away from the German federal election of 2025 which is set to take place on February 23rd. As I laid out in early December, I still think that the most likely election outcome is a gra...
vorcast.org
January 22, 2025 at 7:04 PM
With one month left until the #Bundestagswahl2025 I wanted to talk about my model, the polls, and why I'm getting nervous.
vorcast.org/notes-from-a...
Quick breakdown of the post in the 🧵
vorcast.org/notes-from-a...
Quick breakdown of the post in the 🧵
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025 on vorcast.org
#AFD is inching closer to the #SPD in my forecast.
As we get closer to election day, the polls will receive more and more weight in my forecast so if the polls don't change, the #AFD stands to gain more.
#AFD is inching closer to the #SPD in my forecast.
As we get closer to election day, the polls will receive more and more weight in my forecast so if the polls don't change, the #AFD stands to gain more.
January 15, 2025 at 10:57 AM
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025 on vorcast.org
#AFD is inching closer to the #SPD in my forecast.
As we get closer to election day, the polls will receive more and more weight in my forecast so if the polls don't change, the #AFD stands to gain more.
#AFD is inching closer to the #SPD in my forecast.
As we get closer to election day, the polls will receive more and more weight in my forecast so if the polls don't change, the #AFD stands to gain more.
The #AFD is gaining in my latest forecast. Though my model still much more bearish than the polls, the #AFD's latest round of really good polling has pushed its numbers up.
Also #DieLinke has overtaken #BSW for the first time (by a tiny 0.2%).
More on vorcast.org
Also #DieLinke has overtaken #BSW for the first time (by a tiny 0.2%).
More on vorcast.org
January 12, 2025 at 7:45 PM
The #AFD is gaining in my latest forecast. Though my model still much more bearish than the polls, the #AFD's latest round of really good polling has pushed its numbers up.
Also #DieLinke has overtaken #BSW for the first time (by a tiny 0.2%).
More on vorcast.org
Also #DieLinke has overtaken #BSW for the first time (by a tiny 0.2%).
More on vorcast.org
New predictions up on vorcast.org
#AFD's good polling numbers have also influenced my model's output but there's still big gap between the two. Same is true on a smaller scale for #DieGruenen
#SPD and #CDU continue their slow decline in my model (also reflected in the polls).
#AFD's good polling numbers have also influenced my model's output but there's still big gap between the two. Same is true on a smaller scale for #DieGruenen
#SPD and #CDU continue their slow decline in my model (also reflected in the polls).
January 10, 2025 at 12:07 PM
New predictions up on vorcast.org
#AFD's good polling numbers have also influenced my model's output but there's still big gap between the two. Same is true on a smaller scale for #DieGruenen
#SPD and #CDU continue their slow decline in my model (also reflected in the polls).
#AFD's good polling numbers have also influenced my model's output but there's still big gap between the two. Same is true on a smaller scale for #DieGruenen
#SPD and #CDU continue their slow decline in my model (also reflected in the polls).
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025 on vorcast.org
#BSW slips beneath 5% for the first time in my forecast
#DieGruenen, #SPD, #FDP still projected to finish meaningfully different from what polls suggest.
#BSW slips beneath 5% for the first time in my forecast
#DieGruenen, #SPD, #FDP still projected to finish meaningfully different from what polls suggest.
January 6, 2025 at 7:40 PM
New predictions up for the #Bundestagswahl2025 on vorcast.org
#BSW slips beneath 5% for the first time in my forecast
#DieGruenen, #SPD, #FDP still projected to finish meaningfully different from what polls suggest.
#BSW slips beneath 5% for the first time in my forecast
#DieGruenen, #SPD, #FDP still projected to finish meaningfully different from what polls suggest.
Vorcast.org got a facelift.
I revamped the landing page with some new charts so you can get to the predictions for the #Bundestagswahl2025 faster.
As for the latest predictions: bullish on #SPD and #FDP, bearish on #AFD and #Gruenen
I revamped the landing page with some new charts so you can get to the predictions for the #Bundestagswahl2025 faster.
As for the latest predictions: bullish on #SPD and #FDP, bearish on #AFD and #Gruenen
Welcome to Vorcast - VORCAST
If you’re here, you’re either interested in German politics, data journalism, or both. The Vorcast Model is a prediction model for the German federal elections that is more precise and less noisy than...
Vorcast.org
December 30, 2024 at 7:54 AM
Vorcast.org got a facelift.
I revamped the landing page with some new charts so you can get to the predictions for the #Bundestagswahl2025 faster.
As for the latest predictions: bullish on #SPD and #FDP, bearish on #AFD and #Gruenen
I revamped the landing page with some new charts so you can get to the predictions for the #Bundestagswahl2025 faster.
As for the latest predictions: bullish on #SPD and #FDP, bearish on #AFD and #Gruenen
New predictions up on the day of the #Vertrauensfrage:
#SPD and #FDP are stronger than the polls make them out to be.
My model's still bearish on #DieGruenen and to a lesser degree on the #AFD.
Polls have converged with my predicitions for the #CDU.
vorcast.org/model
#SPD and #FDP are stronger than the polls make them out to be.
My model's still bearish on #DieGruenen and to a lesser degree on the #AFD.
Polls have converged with my predicitions for the #CDU.
vorcast.org/model
December 16, 2024 at 7:10 PM
New predictions up on the day of the #Vertrauensfrage:
#SPD and #FDP are stronger than the polls make them out to be.
My model's still bearish on #DieGruenen and to a lesser degree on the #AFD.
Polls have converged with my predicitions for the #CDU.
vorcast.org/model
#SPD and #FDP are stronger than the polls make them out to be.
My model's still bearish on #DieGruenen and to a lesser degree on the #AFD.
Polls have converged with my predicitions for the #CDU.
vorcast.org/model
New predictions up on vorcast.org/model
It's been a month since the German government fell apart and it's wild to me how little my model has changed since then.
#SPD and #CDUCSU polling numbers converge a bit with my predictions.
The #AFD's and #DieGruenen's polls still seem inflated.
It's been a month since the German government fell apart and it's wild to me how little my model has changed since then.
#SPD and #CDUCSU polling numbers converge a bit with my predictions.
The #AFD's and #DieGruenen's polls still seem inflated.
December 9, 2024 at 7:20 PM
New predictions up on vorcast.org/model
It's been a month since the German government fell apart and it's wild to me how little my model has changed since then.
#SPD and #CDUCSU polling numbers converge a bit with my predictions.
The #AFD's and #DieGruenen's polls still seem inflated.
It's been a month since the German government fell apart and it's wild to me how little my model has changed since then.
#SPD and #CDUCSU polling numbers converge a bit with my predictions.
The #AFD's and #DieGruenen's polls still seem inflated.