Marieke A. Helmich
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mahelmich.bsky.social
Marieke A. Helmich
@mahelmich.bsky.social
1K followers 190 following 17 posts
Postdoc researcher in clinical psychology | Radboudumc Nijmegen, The Netherlands | (she/her) | dynamical systems | individual trajectories of change during treatment | EMA/ESM | emotion dynamics
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mahelmich.bsky.social
Marieke A. Helmich @mahelmich.bsky.social · Oct 11
🚨New paper! 🚨 Very excited to see our Perspective article on the use of early warning signals in psychopathology is now published in @natrevpsych.bsky.social !

Link to the PDF here rdcu.be/dWyLO
And 1/5 🧵below 👇

#MentalHealth #ClinPsychSky #PsychSciSky #Psychology #Psychiatry #ClinPsy 🧪
Screenshot of the title and abstract of the article "Slow down and be critical before using early warning signals in psychopathology", linked in the post.
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
domimaciejewski.bsky.social
What a week! After 5 days, the #mitnb workshop has come to an end. We had a keynote on time scales and two workshops on careless responding and reliability. The central part of the workshops were the hackathons. We had super diverse hackathons, all designed to assess measurement in #ESM. (1/4)
November 7, 2025 at 6:24 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
bsiepe.bsky.social
We built the openESM database:
▶️60 openly available experience sampling datasets (16K+ participants, 740K+ obs.) in one place
▶️Harmonized (meta-)data, fully open-source software
▶️Filter & search all data, simply download via R/Python

Find out more:
🌐 openesmdata.org
📝 doi.org/10.31234/osf...
October 22, 2025 at 7:34 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models). Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve. A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals). Illustrated are 1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals 2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and 3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
August 25, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
tkaiser.science
🚨New paper (preprint, accepted at @psychscience.bsky.social journal AMPPS, with @herzog.bsky.social): a tutorial on conformal prediction, a distribution-free method for quantifying the uncertainty of predictions from statistical methods. Short 🧵 below!

osf.io/preprints/ps...

#PsychSciSky
OSF
osf.io
September 11, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
omidvebrahimi.bsky.social
How Accurate & Consistent are Self-Report responses via Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) in Ecological Momentary Assessment & Digital Studies?

Examined in a massive EMA study (N = 3,761), our new #OpenAccess piece on this is just out:

online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art...

#PsychSciSky #AcademicSky

🧵:
Accuracy and Consistency of Visual Analog Scales in Ecological Momentary Assessment and Digital Studies
The ubiquity of digital technologies has increased assessments of thoughts, behaviors, and experiences via electronic devices. Surveys on smartphones or laptops often implement Visual Analogue Scales ...
online.ucpress.edu
August 7, 2025 at 9:52 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
dpmoriarity.bsky.social
Cool perspective on depression recurrence

>19,000 observations, n=37 discontinuing anti-depressants

Recurrence in ~1/3rd preceded by early warning signals in affect

journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....

Smit et al. @mahelmich.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @eveliensnippe.bsky.social
July 14, 2025 at 3:13 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
mariestadel.bsky.social
📣New preprint 📣

@leonieschorrlepp.bsky.social, @domimaciejewski.bsky.social, @bringmannlaura.bsky.social, Mithra Hesselink and I wrote a paper illustrating the value of qualitative methods for checking the validity of your ESM data.

doi.org/10.31219/osf...
OSF
osf.io
March 28, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
claramiguel.bsky.social
Our new paper on self-reports vs clinician ratings of efficacies of psychotherapies for depression can be read open-access in Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences!

Here is a short summary of our findings🧵
www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Self-reports vs clinician ratings of efficacies of psychotherapies for depression: a meta-analysis of randomized trials | Epidemiology and Psychiatric Sciences | Cambridge Core
Self-reports vs clinician ratings of efficacies of psychotherapies for depression: a meta-analysis of randomized trials - Volume 34
www.cambridge.org
March 13, 2025 at 8:20 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
dejonckheeregon.bsky.social
New work in @clinpsychrev: "EMA in psychotherapy research"

EMA:
✅ most used in clin *research*
✅ often to predict symptom changes
✅ rarely implemented to impact therapeutic processes
✅ research needed on actual EMA benefits in *practice*

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
March 4, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
bringmannlaura.bsky.social
If you do ESM research, please fill out this Short ESM Survey on open-ended items. 🤓
You can fill it out even if you do not use open-ended items in your own ESM research (will be even shorter 😊) rug.eu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...
.
Measurement Is The New Black -
We are a group of scientists interested in improving the validity of time-series measurement in social sciences.
www.mitnb.org
March 3, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
dpmoriarity.bsky.social
Fascinating study showing affective dynamics as predictors of depression relapse in those discontinuing anti-depressants

@ CPS by Smit, @mahelmich.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social Oldehinkel Wichers @eveliensnippe.bsky.social

@psychscience.bsky.social

journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....
February 18, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
omidvebrahimi.bsky.social
How Accurate & Consistent are Self-Report responses via Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) in Ecological Momentary Assessment & Digital Studies?

Examined in a large EMA study (N = 3,761) w/L. Cloos @bsiepe.bsky.social @marilynpicciri1.bsky.social @eikofried.bsky.social @shirleybwang.bsky.social ... 🧵:
February 7, 2025 at 11:59 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
kingsioppn.bsky.social
King's College London launches the Atlas of Longitudinal Datasets, in partnership with @wellcometrust.bsky.social / @mqmentalhealth.bsky.social, a free platform with over 1,600 datasets, to support mental health research worldwide. 🌍

Read more and learn how to access: www.kcl.ac.uk/news/kings-l...
King's launches the Atlas of Longitudinal Datasets to support mental health research
Researchers at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology & Neuroscience (IoPPN) at King’s College London have launched a new free platform to allow people to discover hundreds of longitudinal mental hea...
www.kcl.ac.uk
January 23, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
ccp-kuleuven.bsky.social
Exciting news! 🎉 Registration for the 2025 SAA Conference is now OPENED!✨ Join us in the historic city of Leuven from May 26–28 for inspiring symposia, talks, workshops and networking! Don’t miss out—secure your Early Bird spot now! www.saa2025.com #SAA2025 #KULeuven @saa2025leuven.bsky.social
SAA 2025
Web site created using create-react-app
www.saa2025.com
January 24, 2025 at 12:42 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
colognaviktoria.bsky.social
Our global study on the state of trust in scientists is now out in Nature Human Behaviour! 🥳

With a team of 241 researchers, we surveyed 71,922 people in 68 countries, providing the largest dataset on trust in scientists post-pandemic 👇🧵https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-02090-5
January 20, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
jmbh.bsky.social
Emotions are reactions to situations we encounter in daily life. In our new paper in Psych Review (psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/202...; with @oisinryan.bsky.social and @fdabl.bsky.social), we take a first step towards building a generative model for emotion dynamics based on this simple principle 1/4
January 7, 2025 at 9:19 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
davidbaranger.bsky.social
Bookmark for all future grants: Use of Promotional Language in Grant Applications and Grant Success: "the percentage of promotional words was positively associated with the probability of receiving funding (NIH grants: odds ratio, 1.51 [95% CI, 1.10-2.11])." jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
December 11, 2024 at 10:53 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
tobikube.bsky.social
🍾New article out in @natrevpsych.bsky.social🍾:
We review how social expectations form and change in individuals with depression and how they shape the onset, course, and severity of depression. Particular emphasis is on why social expectations persist despite pos info.
www.nature.com/articles/s44...
Social expectations in depression - Nature Reviews Psychology
Expectations of negative social interactions or low interpersonal self-efficacy are common among people with depression. In this Review, Kirchner et al. integrate the cognitive, social and clinical as...
www.nature.com
December 6, 2024 at 7:43 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
eveliensnippe.bsky.social
📊 Key finding: Emotional improvements often precede behavioral changes, which may partly be due to smaller and less frequent behavioral changes. Cognitive shifts tend to align closely with mood changes. 📄 Link to the full paper: psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...
APA PsycNet
psycnet.apa.org
December 2, 2024 at 6:39 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
eveliensnippe.bsky.social
I’m excited to share that @psypost.bsky.social featured our recent study on the timing of emotional, cognitive, and behavioral improvements during treatment for depression.
Co-authored with:
@mahelmich.bsky.social
@timonelmer.bsky.social
@arnoutcsmit.bsky.social
Wolfgang Lutz & Eva Ceulemans
December 2, 2024 at 6:39 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
aleksakaurin.bsky.social
🚨New Preprint on Affective Stress Responses in Daily life (N=248) - w/ @vizecolin.bsky.social and @aidangcw.bsky.social! We used high-density sampling after stressful events to closely examine the dynamic affective response following daily hassles by estimating latent microtrajectories. 1/3
November 18, 2024 at 7:36 AM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
lesleynorris.bsky.social
Now that I understand starter packs, I've (re)started one for people interested in all things psychotherapy personalization and optimizing treatments to the individual 😊

Anyone welcome! And consider joining our Person-Centered Treatment and Prevention Collaborative group!

go.bsky.app/FXmURQf
November 15, 2024 at 3:17 PM
mahelmich.bsky.social
Wowed by the fact that the cover of the new @natrevpsych.bsky.social issue was inspired by our Perspective paper 🤩 read it here: rdcu.be/dWyLO

co-1st @schreudermj.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @harrietteriese.bsky.social @eveliensnippe.bsky.social @arnoutcsmit.bsky.social
November 9, 2024 at 8:47 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
domimaciejewski.bsky.social
I had a blast spending a whole week working on improving the measurement of intensive longitudinal data with so many smart and kind people. Like a nerdy school trip with friends. Thank you 🙏

@eikofried.bsky.social @bringmannlaura.bsky.social @miguelsilan.bsky.social Josip razum

#LorMITNB
November 8, 2024 at 3:16 PM
Reposted by Marieke A. Helmich
cuijingmeng.bsky.social
Hi #LorMITNB forks, this may be useful of you want to follow other participants ; ) go.bsky.app/42Nh8oA
November 6, 2024 at 8:47 PM