Nick
@macrotragedy.bsky.social
What the name says really, a macro view of things with a slightly pessimistic twist...
https://macrotragedy.blogspot.com/
https://macrotragedy.substack.com/
https://macrotragedy.blogspot.com/
https://macrotragedy.substack.com/
Finally, as per usual, here's the bigger picture. Let's hope that Sep will prove to be a break from that period of relative stagnation for Greece's manufacturing sector.
November 10, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Finally, as per usual, here's the bigger picture. Let's hope that Sep will prove to be a break from that period of relative stagnation for Greece's manufacturing sector.
Here's how each manufacturing sub-sector fared in Sep. All index-heavy sub-sectors posted a positive YoY print and it's worth highlighting that Sep's top performers belonged in the high and medium-high technological segment.
November 10, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Here's how each manufacturing sub-sector fared in Sep. All index-heavy sub-sectors posted a positive YoY print and it's worth highlighting that Sep's top performers belonged in the high and medium-high technological segment.
Breadth for the Industrial sector improved MoM, as 18 sub-sectors registered a YoY increase in their respective production index compared with 14 in Aug.
November 10, 2025 at 5:10 PM
Breadth for the Industrial sector improved MoM, as 18 sub-sectors registered a YoY increase in their respective production index compared with 14 in Aug.
Greece, Manufacturing - Production Index --> +7.6% YoY in Sep
This is the fastest manufacturing production has grown since July 2024. Hopefully this marks the end of that spell of relative stagnation. 🤞🤞
This is the fastest manufacturing production has grown since July 2024. Hopefully this marks the end of that spell of relative stagnation. 🤞🤞
November 10, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Greece, Manufacturing - Production Index --> +7.6% YoY in Sep
This is the fastest manufacturing production has grown since July 2024. Hopefully this marks the end of that spell of relative stagnation. 🤞🤞
This is the fastest manufacturing production has grown since July 2024. Hopefully this marks the end of that spell of relative stagnation. 🤞🤞
Just to highlight who gets hit by high inflation.
In Argentina, using Dec 2016 as a base:
- wages have increased by 6835.71%
- the general price level has increased by 8923.97%
In Argentina, using Dec 2016 as a base:
- wages have increased by 6835.71%
- the general price level has increased by 8923.97%
October 28, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Just to highlight who gets hit by high inflation.
In Argentina, using Dec 2016 as a base:
- wages have increased by 6835.71%
- the general price level has increased by 8923.97%
In Argentina, using Dec 2016 as a base:
- wages have increased by 6835.71%
- the general price level has increased by 8923.97%
Argentina - Incidence of Poverty in 31 urban agglomerations (% of persons) --> The poverty rate decreased from a high of 52.9% in the 1st half of 2024 to 31.6% in the 1st half of 2025.
October 27, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Argentina - Incidence of Poverty in 31 urban agglomerations (% of persons) --> The poverty rate decreased from a high of 52.9% in the 1st half of 2024 to 31.6% in the 1st half of 2025.
Argentina, Monthly Economic Activity by sector - # of sectors registering a YoY expansion in activity --> Breadth (i.e. the # of sectors in expansion) has also slowed since May.
October 27, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Argentina, Monthly Economic Activity by sector - # of sectors registering a YoY expansion in activity --> Breadth (i.e. the # of sectors in expansion) has also slowed since May.
Argentina - Monthly Economic Indicator --> The monthly economic indicator started to grow, on a YoY basis, in Oct 2024 and has kept growing ever since, although it has slowed markedly in July and Aug.
October 27, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Argentina - Monthly Economic Indicator --> The monthly economic indicator started to grow, on a YoY basis, in Oct 2024 and has kept growing ever since, although it has slowed markedly in July and Aug.
Argentina, Public Sector - Primary Balance (deflated, 12-month rolling-sum, mln Pesos in Dec 2016 prices) --> The public sector's primary balance swung to surplus in Jan 2024 and in June 2024 in 12-month rolling-sum terms.
October 27, 2025 at 4:54 PM
Argentina, Public Sector - Primary Balance (deflated, 12-month rolling-sum, mln Pesos in Dec 2016 prices) --> The public sector's primary balance swung to surplus in Jan 2024 and in June 2024 in 12-month rolling-sum terms.
Argentina - CPI (YoY % change) --> down to 31.8% YoY in Sep, from a high of 289.4% in Apr 2024
Since Dec 2017 (that INDEC data stretch back to) only in 8 months was annual inflation lower than it was this Sep.
Since Dec 2017 (that INDEC data stretch back to) only in 8 months was annual inflation lower than it was this Sep.
October 27, 2025 at 4:46 PM
Argentina - CPI (YoY % change) --> down to 31.8% YoY in Sep, from a high of 289.4% in Apr 2024
Since Dec 2017 (that INDEC data stretch back to) only in 8 months was annual inflation lower than it was this Sep.
Since Dec 2017 (that INDEC data stretch back to) only in 8 months was annual inflation lower than it was this Sep.
Now let's hope that the fact that this Oct has, thus far, been cool for Greek standards (esp. those of the last few years) won't lead to electricity prices spiking anew.
October 20, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Now let's hope that the fact that this Oct has, thus far, been cool for Greek standards (esp. those of the last few years) won't lead to electricity prices spiking anew.
This was due to a number of HICP components slowing down significantly and simultaneously.
October 20, 2025 at 9:12 AM
This was due to a number of HICP components slowing down significantly and simultaneously.
In Sep, for the first time in 14 months, headline inflation for Greece came in lower than that for the Euro Area.
October 20, 2025 at 9:11 AM
In Sep, for the first time in 14 months, headline inflation for Greece came in lower than that for the Euro Area.
And here's the bigger picture.
The fact that Greece's manufacturing sector has been, more or less, treading water for the past 10 months or so, is also evident in this chart.
The fact that Greece's manufacturing sector has been, more or less, treading water for the past 10 months or so, is also evident in this chart.
September 10, 2025 at 4:39 PM
And here's the bigger picture.
The fact that Greece's manufacturing sector has been, more or less, treading water for the past 10 months or so, is also evident in this chart.
The fact that Greece's manufacturing sector has been, more or less, treading water for the past 10 months or so, is also evident in this chart.
Breadth for the whole of the Industrial sector worsened, MoM, in July, as 14 sub-sectors registered YoY increases in their respective production indices compared to 20 in June.
September 10, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Breadth for the whole of the Industrial sector worsened, MoM, in July, as 14 sub-sectors registered YoY increases in their respective production indices compared to 20 in June.
Greece, Manufacturing - Production Index --> +0.53% YoY in 2025M07
The anemic performance of Greece's manufacturing sector post-2024M10 continued in July. The drop in the 12-month MA underlines the fact.
The anemic performance of Greece's manufacturing sector post-2024M10 continued in July. The drop in the 12-month MA underlines the fact.
September 10, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Greece, Manufacturing - Production Index --> +0.53% YoY in 2025M07
The anemic performance of Greece's manufacturing sector post-2024M10 continued in July. The drop in the 12-month MA underlines the fact.
The anemic performance of Greece's manufacturing sector post-2024M10 continued in July. The drop in the 12-month MA underlines the fact.
EU countries, Nights Spent at Tourist Accommodation Establishments - 2025M06 (YoY % change) --> Greece registered the 6th worst reading among our EU peers in June. Let's hope that things picked up during the rest of the high-season months. 🤞🤞
September 10, 2025 at 3:56 PM
EU countries, Nights Spent at Tourist Accommodation Establishments - 2025M06 (YoY % change) --> Greece registered the 6th worst reading among our EU peers in June. Let's hope that things picked up during the rest of the high-season months. 🤞🤞
Finally, H/holds' Final Consumption recorded another not that hot print, the 2nd in the last 3 quarters.
September 5, 2025 at 4:28 PM
Finally, H/holds' Final Consumption recorded another not that hot print, the 2nd in the last 3 quarters.
As for which Gross Fixed Capital Formation components account for the YoY growth recorded in 2025Q2, the largest positive contributor was Transport Equip., followed by Dwellings and Other Buildings & Structures while Machinery & Equipment slowed down significantly and ICT equip. outright contracted.
September 5, 2025 at 4:27 PM
As for which Gross Fixed Capital Formation components account for the YoY growth recorded in 2025Q2, the largest positive contributor was Transport Equip., followed by Dwellings and Other Buildings & Structures while Machinery & Equipment slowed down significantly and ICT equip. outright contracted.
Contrary to Gross Capital Formation, Gross Fixed Capital Formation grew again YoY (after dipping in 2025Q1) in 2025Q2, which means that the large drop in Gross Capital Formation was due to a decrease in Inventories.
September 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Contrary to Gross Capital Formation, Gross Fixed Capital Formation grew again YoY (after dipping in 2025Q1) in 2025Q2, which means that the large drop in Gross Capital Formation was due to a decrease in Inventories.
Moving on to each GDP component's contribution to the headline growth figure,the largest positive contributor were Imports (i.e. they decreased YoY) followed by Services Exports and H/holds' Final Consumption Expenditure.On the other hand,the largest negative contributor was Gross Capital Formation.
September 5, 2025 at 4:26 PM
Moving on to each GDP component's contribution to the headline growth figure,the largest positive contributor were Imports (i.e. they decreased YoY) followed by Services Exports and H/holds' Final Consumption Expenditure.On the other hand,the largest negative contributor was Gross Capital Formation.
Greece - GDP (YoY % change, 2020 chain-linked volumes) --> +1.7% YoY in 20205Q1
This is the slowest YoY growth rate that Greece's GDP has recorded post-2021Q2 (i.e. when the post-Covid recovery started).
This is the slowest YoY growth rate that Greece's GDP has recorded post-2021Q2 (i.e. when the post-Covid recovery started).
September 5, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Greece - GDP (YoY % change, 2020 chain-linked volumes) --> +1.7% YoY in 20205Q1
This is the slowest YoY growth rate that Greece's GDP has recorded post-2021Q2 (i.e. when the post-Covid recovery started).
This is the slowest YoY growth rate that Greece's GDP has recorded post-2021Q2 (i.e. when the post-Covid recovery started).
Euro Area 20, Retail Trade excl. Motor Vehicles & Motorcycles - Volume Index --> +2.2% YoY in 2025M07
The recovery of consumer spending on Goods, in the Euro Area, continues.
Let's see if Greece too will follow that trend.
The recovery of consumer spending on Goods, in the Euro Area, continues.
Let's see if Greece too will follow that trend.
September 4, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Euro Area 20, Retail Trade excl. Motor Vehicles & Motorcycles - Volume Index --> +2.2% YoY in 2025M07
The recovery of consumer spending on Goods, in the Euro Area, continues.
Let's see if Greece too will follow that trend.
The recovery of consumer spending on Goods, in the Euro Area, continues.
Let's see if Greece too will follow that trend.
Moreover, Manufacturing posted the most significant YoY jobs gain since 2022Q2, after essentially treading water (jobs-wise) for 6 quarters or so.
September 3, 2025 at 3:38 PM
Moreover, Manufacturing posted the most significant YoY jobs gain since 2022Q2, after essentially treading water (jobs-wise) for 6 quarters or so.
It's worth highlighting that the Construction sector, despite the significant slowdown it experienced these past few months (following StE's ruling) not only didn't decrease its headcount but added more jobs at a healthy clip, with the said pace increasing significantly in 2025Q2 when the >
September 3, 2025 at 3:36 PM
It's worth highlighting that the Construction sector, despite the significant slowdown it experienced these past few months (following StE's ruling) not only didn't decrease its headcount but added more jobs at a healthy clip, with the said pace increasing significantly in 2025Q2 when the >