Mackenzie Lockhart
@maclockhart.bsky.social
Yale Postdoc, UCSD PhD. Studying elections, voters, and representation. Occasional runner, even more occasional swimmer. www.maclockhart.com
Honoured to see our work recognized in this way. The project started in my first year of graduate school, so I’m glad to see the many, many hours we put in were worth it.
We are pleased to announce the 2025 Editors’ Choice Award for the paper “How Much Should We Trust Instrumental Variable Estimates in Political Science? Practical Advice Based on 67 Replicated Studies” by @apoorvalal.com, @maclockhart.bsky.social, @yiqingxu.bsky.social, and @garyzu.bsky.social.
August 10, 2025 at 5:40 PM
Honoured to see our work recognized in this way. The project started in my first year of graduate school, so I’m glad to see the many, many hours we put in were worth it.
Two paper rejections in one day! I think it's a sign I should log off my email to make sure it doesn't hit 3.
May 21, 2025 at 7:32 PM
Two paper rejections in one day! I think it's a sign I should log off my email to make sure it doesn't hit 3.
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
From February 2025 -
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
#OpenAccess
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
#OpenAccess
April 25, 2025 at 12:15 PM
From February 2025 -
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
#OpenAccess
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
#OpenAccess
With the Canadian election looming, are you wondering about how provincial politics might affect the federal outcome? Our pre-print shows where you should expect to see provincial politics bleed over the most (spoiler alert - the answer is Quebec!)
New pre-print out with Alex Rivard (
@sfufass.bsky.social):
"I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy"
Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
@sfufass.bsky.social):
"I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy"
Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
April 23, 2025 at 3:26 PM
With the Canadian election looming, are you wondering about how provincial politics might affect the federal outcome? Our pre-print shows where you should expect to see provincial politics bleed over the most (spoiler alert - the answer is Quebec!)
New pre-print out with Alex Rivard (
@sfufass.bsky.social):
"I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy"
Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
@sfufass.bsky.social):
"I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy"
Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
April 17, 2025 at 9:36 PM
New pre-print out with Alex Rivard (
@sfufass.bsky.social):
"I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy"
Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
@sfufass.bsky.social):
"I’m a Federal Sovereigntist but a Provincial Nationalist: Party Identification in a Multi-Level Westminster Democracy"
Ever wondered how voters handle partisan identity at levels besides the national government?
Did I promise myself not to take on any new projects? Yes.
Did I take on a new project because I promised myself it was a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? Also yes.
Is it going to end up being a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? I plead the fifth.
Did I take on a new project because I promised myself it was a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? Also yes.
Is it going to end up being a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? I plead the fifth.
March 13, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Did I promise myself not to take on any new projects? Yes.
Did I take on a new project because I promised myself it was a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? Also yes.
Is it going to end up being a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? I plead the fifth.
Did I take on a new project because I promised myself it was a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? Also yes.
Is it going to end up being a teenie tiny little itty bitty project? I plead the fifth.
I happily subscribed to the WaPo for their news coverage and stayed subscribed through many editorials I disagreed with because I believe in paying for journalism.
But an editorial page with an official point of view is not something I need to fund. I’ll take my subscription dollars elsewhere.
But an editorial page with an official point of view is not something I need to fund. I’ll take my subscription dollars elsewhere.
SCOOP: WaPo Opinion editor David Shipley is out. Jeff Bezos emails staff about a change to Post Opinions: "We are going to be writing every day in support and defense of two pillars: personal liberties and free markets."
February 26, 2025 at 4:32 PM
I happily subscribed to the WaPo for their news coverage and stayed subscribed through many editorials I disagreed with because I believe in paying for journalism.
But an editorial page with an official point of view is not something I need to fund. I’ll take my subscription dollars elsewhere.
But an editorial page with an official point of view is not something I need to fund. I’ll take my subscription dollars elsewhere.
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
NEW -
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
February 19, 2025 at 11:15 AM
NEW -
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? - cup.org/433kRJP
- @jengaudette.bsky.social, @sethjhill.bsky.social, Thad Kousser, @maclockhart.bsky.social & Mindy Romero
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
🚨 New paper out at @bjpols.bsky.social 🚨
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
February 13, 2025 at 8:22 PM
🚨 New paper out at @bjpols.bsky.social 🚨
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
🚨 New paper out at @bjpols.bsky.social 🚨
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
February 13, 2025 at 8:22 PM
🚨 New paper out at @bjpols.bsky.social 🚨
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
Can Official Messaging on Trust in Elections Break Through Partisan Polarization? Yes!
We show, using large national and state specific survey experiments, that public information campaigns from election officials work.
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
The executive branch does not have the legal right to cancel appropriated spending or eliminate agencies created by Congress.
Trump and Musk are doing both. Entirely lawless and unconstitutional.
The world's largest provider of food assistance shut down.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Trump and Musk are doing both. Entirely lawless and unconstitutional.
The world's largest provider of food assistance shut down.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
![“I went over it with him in detail, and he agreed that we should shut it down,” Musk said. “And I actually checked with him a few times [and] said ‘are you sure?’”
The answer was yes, he said.
“And so we’re shutting it down,” Musk said.
USAID staffers were told that the agency’s headquarters in Washington will be closed Monday amid the turmoil.
In an email to staff early Monday, the agency’s leadership said: “Agency personnel normally assigned to work at USAID headquarters will work remotely … with the exception of personnel with essential on-site and building maintenance functions individually contacted by senior leadership.”](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:2rrp7amblhg3xoly5n5huiqv/bafkreihfrxbqqzx6xoeoudgfglj52il2ts26n2dkmxhq6ulwdbt7thegzy@jpeg)
February 3, 2025 at 12:33 PM
The executive branch does not have the legal right to cancel appropriated spending or eliminate agencies created by Congress.
Trump and Musk are doing both. Entirely lawless and unconstitutional.
The world's largest provider of food assistance shut down.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Trump and Musk are doing both. Entirely lawless and unconstitutional.
The world's largest provider of food assistance shut down.
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
I’ve started getting some pretty aggressive online advertising for Botox recently, and now I’m really curious which algorithm thinks I look old.
January 30, 2025 at 3:00 PM
I’ve started getting some pretty aggressive online advertising for Botox recently, and now I’m really curious which algorithm thinks I look old.
I have a giant pop, a chair that is weirdly capable of shaking, and am about to watch a new Lord of the Rings movie in theatres. It doesn’t get better than this.
December 17, 2024 at 12:38 AM
I have a giant pop, a chair that is weirdly capable of shaking, and am about to watch a new Lord of the Rings movie in theatres. It doesn’t get better than this.
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
@maclockhart.bsky.social presents his evidence of the impact of declining local news on primary elections.
December 10, 2024 at 1:32 PM
@maclockhart.bsky.social presents his evidence of the impact of declining local news on primary elections.
This is a pretty genuine phenomenon that we document in our paper at The Forum. People feel better about their own conditions than the country as a whole across a lot of areas!
doi.org/10.1515/for-...
doi.org/10.1515/for-...
December 8, 2024 at 11:20 PM
This is a pretty genuine phenomenon that we document in our paper at The Forum. People feel better about their own conditions than the country as a whole across a lot of areas!
doi.org/10.1515/for-...
doi.org/10.1515/for-...
Trying to interpret the swing state swings from 2016-2024 is hopeless. Each election was won by a margin of between 80,000 and 250,000 votes (total) in MI, PA, and WI. There are members of the California State Senate with those kinds of margins.
December 3, 2024 at 1:24 PM
Trying to interpret the swing state swings from 2016-2024 is hopeless. Each election was won by a margin of between 80,000 and 250,000 votes (total) in MI, PA, and WI. There are members of the California State Senate with those kinds of margins.
I was at a bar with my twin brother last night and one bartender commented that we looked like twins. The other bartender would not believe it until my brother took his glasses off when her mind was blown.
I have a newfound respect for Clark Kent's disguise.
I have a newfound respect for Clark Kent's disguise.
November 22, 2024 at 5:25 PM
I was at a bar with my twin brother last night and one bartender commented that we looked like twins. The other bartender would not believe it until my brother took his glasses off when her mind was blown.
I have a newfound respect for Clark Kent's disguise.
I have a newfound respect for Clark Kent's disguise.
It's like Cersei Lannister's Small Council in Game of Thrones. You'd struggle to draft a worse set of people.
President-elect Donald Trump has quickly begun to assemble the list of people who will serve in his cabinet and in other senior positions during his second term. Here’s who has been announced so far. nyti.ms/48POMX5
November 13, 2024 at 6:31 PM
It's like Cersei Lannister's Small Council in Game of Thrones. You'd struggle to draft a worse set of people.
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
Encouragingly, prebunking by election officials that explains the reasons that the vote count can take multiple days reverses the harms to election confidence that delays otherwise cause (especially among Republicans) academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
October 22, 2024 at 7:37 PM
Encouragingly, prebunking by election officials that explains the reasons that the vote count can take multiple days reverses the harms to election confidence that delays otherwise cause (especially among Republicans) academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ar...
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
Why isn’t there greater political pressure in the United States to enhance public policy? A new study from Alan Gerber, @ericpatashnik.bsky.social, and @maclockhart.bsky.social finds a clue in affluent Americans' perception of insulation. bit.ly/3X1zEjD
August 28, 2024 at 1:07 PM
Why isn’t there greater political pressure in the United States to enhance public policy? A new study from Alan Gerber, @ericpatashnik.bsky.social, and @maclockhart.bsky.social finds a clue in affluent Americans' perception of insulation. bit.ly/3X1zEjD
Reposted by Mackenzie Lockhart
If you’re annoyed by the NYT, please turn your attention to the Cal State system’s impending strike. 23 campuses that serve nearly 500,000 students will be on strike Jan. 22-26 demanding better pay, parental leave for a semester, and safer working conditions for queer and BIPOC faculty.
January 6, 2024 at 3:59 AM
If you’re annoyed by the NYT, please turn your attention to the Cal State system’s impending strike. 23 campuses that serve nearly 500,000 students will be on strike Jan. 22-26 demanding better pay, parental leave for a semester, and safer working conditions for queer and BIPOC faculty.
Unbelievably cool to see my brother @guslockhart.bsky.social speak to a HoC Committee today on AI in the workplace. The family group chat probably enjoyed the experience more than he did!
November 20, 2023 at 5:10 PM
Unbelievably cool to see my brother @guslockhart.bsky.social speak to a HoC Committee today on AI in the workplace. The family group chat probably enjoyed the experience more than he did!
I'm happy to be able to share a new working paper with Jennifer Gaudette, Seth Hill, Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, and Laura Uribe showing that federalism and polarization interact to produce significant nationalized distrust in elections.
LINK: osf.io/x9zg5
LINK: osf.io/x9zg5
November 1, 2023 at 5:25 PM
I'm happy to be able to share a new working paper with Jennifer Gaudette, Seth Hill, Thad Kousser, Mindy Romero, and Laura Uribe showing that federalism and polarization interact to produce significant nationalized distrust in elections.
LINK: osf.io/x9zg5
LINK: osf.io/x9zg5
Probably the most painful thing I’ve done, and that includes TAing a methods course and moving from San Diego to Connecticut.
October 15, 2023 at 9:42 PM
Probably the most painful thing I’ve done, and that includes TAing a methods course and moving from San Diego to Connecticut.
I don’t understand any theory of political contributions in the US that relies on Members of Congress or candidates for Congress caring about a $2-5,000 donation enough to change their legislative behaviour on any dimension that matters.
October 6, 2023 at 2:03 PM
I don’t understand any theory of political contributions in the US that relies on Members of Congress or candidates for Congress caring about a $2-5,000 donation enough to change their legislative behaviour on any dimension that matters.