Lukas Warode
@lwarode.bsky.social
Political Science PhD Student, University of Mannheim.
Dissertation: How political elites view and semantically associate the ideological labels “left” and “right” across the political spectrum.
lwarode.github.io
Dissertation: How political elites view and semantically associate the ideological labels “left” and “right” across the political spectrum.
lwarode.github.io
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Job Alert! We are hiring two post-docs (full time, 4+ years) in our project SCEPTIC - Social, Computational and Ethical Premises of Trust and Informational Cohesion with @annanosthoff.bsky.social @guzoch.bsky.social and Prof. Andreas Peters (uol.de/informatik/s...)
October 17, 2025 at 9:15 AM
Job Alert! We are hiring two post-docs (full time, 4+ years) in our project SCEPTIC - Social, Computational and Ethical Premises of Trust and Informational Cohesion with @annanosthoff.bsky.social @guzoch.bsky.social and Prof. Andreas Peters (uol.de/informatik/s...)
Reposted by Lukas Warode
📣 New Preprint!
Have you ever wondered what the political content in LLM's training data is? What are the political opinions expressed? What is the proportion of left- vs right-leaning documents in the pre- and post-training data? Do they correlate with the political biases reflected in models?
Have you ever wondered what the political content in LLM's training data is? What are the political opinions expressed? What is the proportion of left- vs right-leaning documents in the pre- and post-training data? Do they correlate with the political biases reflected in models?
September 29, 2025 at 2:54 PM
📣 New Preprint!
Have you ever wondered what the political content in LLM's training data is? What are the political opinions expressed? What is the proportion of left- vs right-leaning documents in the pre- and post-training data? Do they correlate with the political biases reflected in models?
Have you ever wondered what the political content in LLM's training data is? What are the political opinions expressed? What is the proportion of left- vs right-leaning documents in the pre- and post-training data? Do they correlate with the political biases reflected in models?
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Can large language models stand in for human participants?
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
The threat of analytic flexibility in using large language models to simulate human data: A call to attention
Social scientists are now using large language models to create "silicon samples" - synthetic datasets intended to stand in for human respondents, aimed at revolutionising human subjects research. How...
arxiv.org
September 18, 2025 at 7:56 AM
Can large language models stand in for human participants?
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
Many social scientists seem to think so, and are already using "silicon samples" in research.
One problem: depending on the analytic decisions made, you can basically get these samples to show any effect you want.
THREAD 🧵
Reposted by Lukas Warode
🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Using LLMs as data annotators, you can produce any scientific result you want. We call this **LLM Hacking**.
Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
September 12, 2025 at 10:33 AM
🚨 New paper alert 🚨 Using LLMs as data annotators, you can produce any scientific result you want. We call this **LLM Hacking**.
Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
Paper: arxiv.org/pdf/2509.08825
My 2nd dissertation paper is out in @nature.com Humanities and Social Sciences Communications: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I study and explore how associations with 'left' and 'right' vary systematically by semantic and political position.
I study and explore how associations with 'left' and 'right' vary systematically by semantic and political position.
August 26, 2025 at 9:38 AM
My 2nd dissertation paper is out in @nature.com Humanities and Social Sciences Communications: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
I study and explore how associations with 'left' and 'right' vary systematically by semantic and political position.
I study and explore how associations with 'left' and 'right' vary systematically by semantic and political position.
Reposted by Lukas Warode
📢 New Publication Alert!
Our (@msaeltzer.bsky.social)
latest article, "Issue congruence between candidates' Twitter communication and constituencies in an MMES: Migration as an exemplary case", has just been published in Parliamentary Affairs.
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
Our (@msaeltzer.bsky.social)
latest article, "Issue congruence between candidates' Twitter communication and constituencies in an MMES: Migration as an exemplary case", has just been published in Parliamentary Affairs.
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
August 13, 2025 at 5:57 PM
📢 New Publication Alert!
Our (@msaeltzer.bsky.social)
latest article, "Issue congruence between candidates' Twitter communication and constituencies in an MMES: Migration as an exemplary case", has just been published in Parliamentary Affairs.
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
Our (@msaeltzer.bsky.social)
latest article, "Issue congruence between candidates' Twitter communication and constituencies in an MMES: Migration as an exemplary case", has just been published in Parliamentary Affairs.
academic.oup.com/pa/advance-a...
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Now out in Social Networks
Network analysis aspires to be “anticategorical,” yet its basic units—relationships—are usually readily categorized ('friendship,' 'love'). Thus, a nontrivial cultural typification is asserted in the very building blocks of most network analyses.
doi.org/10.1016/j.so...
Network analysis aspires to be “anticategorical,” yet its basic units—relationships—are usually readily categorized ('friendship,' 'love'). Thus, a nontrivial cultural typification is asserted in the very building blocks of most network analyses.
doi.org/10.1016/j.so...
August 7, 2025 at 2:22 PM
Now out in Social Networks
Network analysis aspires to be “anticategorical,” yet its basic units—relationships—are usually readily categorized ('friendship,' 'love'). Thus, a nontrivial cultural typification is asserted in the very building blocks of most network analyses.
doi.org/10.1016/j.so...
Network analysis aspires to be “anticategorical,” yet its basic units—relationships—are usually readily categorized ('friendship,' 'love'). Thus, a nontrivial cultural typification is asserted in the very building blocks of most network analyses.
doi.org/10.1016/j.so...
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Calling all parliaments experts!
Say there's a debate in parliament, and a related vote. How frequently would these be on different days? different weeks? I don't mean different readings of bills, because these will also have different debates.
@sgparliaments.bsky.social #polisky #parlisky
Say there's a debate in parliament, and a related vote. How frequently would these be on different days? different weeks? I don't mean different readings of bills, because these will also have different debates.
@sgparliaments.bsky.social #polisky #parlisky
a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help "
ALT: a cartoon character from south park says " i m gonna need your help "
media.tenor.com
July 22, 2025 at 4:06 PM
Calling all parliaments experts!
Say there's a debate in parliament, and a related vote. How frequently would these be on different days? different weeks? I don't mean different readings of bills, because these will also have different debates.
@sgparliaments.bsky.social #polisky #parlisky
Say there's a debate in parliament, and a related vote. How frequently would these be on different days? different weeks? I don't mean different readings of bills, because these will also have different debates.
@sgparliaments.bsky.social #polisky #parlisky
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
July 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Can banning political ideologies protect democracy? 🛡️🆚🗣️
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Our (w. @valentimvicente.bsky.social) paper finds: punishing individuals might backfire. We study a West German policy banning "extreme left" individuals from working for the state.
#Democracy #PoliticalScience
🧵
url: osf.io/usqdb_v2
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Happy to share my first published article based on my PhD in Party Politics with @journals.sagepub.com in open access!
doi.org/10.1177/1354...
doi.org/10.1177/1354...
July 7, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Happy to share my first published article based on my PhD in Party Politics with @journals.sagepub.com in open access!
doi.org/10.1177/1354...
doi.org/10.1177/1354...
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting
The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…
www.sciencedirect.com
July 9, 2025 at 8:09 AM
Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Quite a strong final statement: "Descriptive research is important and it is a pity that the general obsession with causal estimates disincentivizes researchers from attempting to publish careful and detailed description."
Local reactions to wolf attacks in Germany are not powerful enough to influence the election decisions of many voters www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
The East in wolf’s clothing. Wolf attacks correlate with but do not cause far-right voting
The resurgence of wolves in Germany has sparked intense debate, particularly in rural areas where wolf attacks on livestock are frequent. Prior resear…
www.sciencedirect.com
July 9, 2025 at 10:19 AM
Quite a strong final statement: "Descriptive research is important and it is a pity that the general obsession with causal estimates disincentivizes researchers from attempting to publish careful and detailed description."
1/2 Another year, another @epsanet.bsky.social This year I had two papers accepted, but no visual proof that I presented joint work with Thomas Bräuninger on (the problems of) dynamic scale usage. I hope some nice people will capture 📸 me again next year in the Post-EPSA era @epssnet.bsky.social
June 29, 2025 at 4:10 PM
1/2 Another year, another @epsanet.bsky.social This year I had two papers accepted, but no visual proof that I presented joint work with Thomas Bräuninger on (the problems of) dynamic scale usage. I hope some nice people will capture 📸 me again next year in the Post-EPSA era @epssnet.bsky.social
Reposted by Lukas Warode
In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)
June 28, 2025 at 8:53 AM
In 1/2 an hour at #epsa2025, I’ll explain @lwarode.bsky.social and my approach to measuring divergence in gov-opp relations measurement based on parliamentary votes and speeches. The panel’s hidden at -1.A.05, so I hope you’ll find your way there (as will I)
Reposted by Lukas Warode
A large-scale study of academics’ tweets shows disparities in who shapes academic discourse and how it reaches the public. @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social
#AcademicTwitter #ClimateAction
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#AcademicTwitter #ClimateAction
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Political expression of academics on Twitter - Nature Human Behaviour
An analysis of nearly 100,000 academics on Twitter reveals strong progressive stances on climate and social issues, driven by a small, vocal subset. The study highlights potential gaps between academi...
www.nature.com
June 3, 2025 at 11:18 AM
A large-scale study of academics’ tweets shows disparities in who shapes academic discourse and how it reaches the public. @prashantgarg.bsky.social @trfetzer.com @imperialcollegeldn.bsky.social @uni-of-warwick.bsky.social
#AcademicTwitter #ClimateAction
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#AcademicTwitter #ClimateAction
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Reposted by Lukas Warode
🚨New publication @The_JOP on human biases in data annotation (w. Nora Webb Williams, @kevinaslett.bsky.social, John Wilkerson). Extremely important given the increasing societal reliance on AI tools often trained on human coders www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
March 28, 2025 at 1:46 PM
🚨New publication @The_JOP on human biases in data annotation (w. Nora Webb Williams, @kevinaslett.bsky.social, John Wilkerson). Extremely important given the increasing societal reliance on AI tools often trained on human coders www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...
Reposted by Lukas Warode
A Tinder Test of Democratic Norms💋
New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social
We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸
doi.org/10.1086/736698
New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social
We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸
doi.org/10.1086/736698
May 19, 2025 at 8:10 AM
A Tinder Test of Democratic Norms💋
New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social
We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸
doi.org/10.1086/736698
New paper in @thejop.bsky.social with @bertous.bsky.social
We rely on a visual conjoint experiment, cross-sectional data, & panel data to show that affective polarization drives the normalisation of the far right among the centre-right 🇬🇧🇪🇸
doi.org/10.1086/736698
Reposted by Lukas Warode
📣 New article alert 📣
Great insights shared by CDSS doctoral candidate Lukas Warode on elite attitudes towards political ideology. Check out the thread and his article for a deeper dive into the research area. Congrats @lwarode.bsky.social!👏
Great insights shared by CDSS doctoral candidate Lukas Warode on elite attitudes towards political ideology. Check out the thread and his article for a deeper dive into the research area. Congrats @lwarode.bsky.social!👏
The first paper of my dissertation has been published in West European Politics!
@wepsocial.bsky.social
See the thread below:
@wepsocial.bsky.social
See the thread below:
May 16, 2025 at 1:04 PM
📣 New article alert 📣
Great insights shared by CDSS doctoral candidate Lukas Warode on elite attitudes towards political ideology. Check out the thread and his article for a deeper dive into the research area. Congrats @lwarode.bsky.social!👏
Great insights shared by CDSS doctoral candidate Lukas Warode on elite attitudes towards political ideology. Check out the thread and his article for a deeper dive into the research area. Congrats @lwarode.bsky.social!👏
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Analysing the associations of 🇩🇪 candidates toward ideology, @lwarode.bsky.social shows that left-leaning elites view 'left' positively & 'right' negatively.
This pattern is not mirrored by right-leaning elites, who on average have less positive attitudes towards 'right'.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
This pattern is not mirrored by right-leaning elites, who on average have less positive attitudes towards 'right'.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
May 8, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Analysing the associations of 🇩🇪 candidates toward ideology, @lwarode.bsky.social shows that left-leaning elites view 'left' positively & 'right' negatively.
This pattern is not mirrored by right-leaning elites, who on average have less positive attitudes towards 'right'.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
This pattern is not mirrored by right-leaning elites, who on average have less positive attitudes towards 'right'.
doi.org/10.1080/0140...
The first paper of my dissertation has been published in West European Politics!
@wepsocial.bsky.social
See the thread below:
@wepsocial.bsky.social
See the thread below:
May 8, 2025 at 7:46 AM
The first paper of my dissertation has been published in West European Politics!
@wepsocial.bsky.social
See the thread below:
@wepsocial.bsky.social
See the thread below:
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Everything required to explain IV estimation, in one picture.
November 14, 2024 at 1:37 PM
Everything required to explain IV estimation, in one picture.
Reposted by Lukas Warode
quantitative forscher:innen: fuck ich sitze seit 10 stunden im büro kriege mein fuzzy regression discontinuity design nicht in R implementiert
qualitative forscher:innen mit ihrer fokusgruppe:
qualitative forscher:innen mit ihrer fokusgruppe:
April 30, 2025 at 1:09 PM
quantitative forscher:innen: fuck ich sitze seit 10 stunden im büro kriege mein fuzzy regression discontinuity design nicht in R implementiert
qualitative forscher:innen mit ihrer fokusgruppe:
qualitative forscher:innen mit ihrer fokusgruppe:
Reposted by Lukas Warode
Who's the most liberal or conservative cardinal?
Here are the cardinals' ideal point estimates.
credit: @adamramey.bsky.social
Here are the cardinals' ideal point estimates.
credit: @adamramey.bsky.social
April 22, 2025 at 7:15 PM
Who's the most liberal or conservative cardinal?
Here are the cardinals' ideal point estimates.
credit: @adamramey.bsky.social
Here are the cardinals' ideal point estimates.
credit: @adamramey.bsky.social