JJ Zachariason
@lateroundqb.bsky.social
East Coast Dad™. Late-Round Fantasy Football creator. Host of the award-winning Late-Round Fantasy Football Podcast (& Living the Stream). Pitt alum.
I did a lot of research last summer on yards per route run at running back, and how poor previous-season YPRR rates tend to lead to underwhelming performances the following year among middle-round RBs.
Sent this email out in June, but this was 2025's list. Pretty wild.
Sent this email out in June, but this was 2025's list. Pretty wild.
November 4, 2025 at 3:15 PM
I did a lot of research last summer on yards per route run at running back, and how poor previous-season YPRR rates tend to lead to underwhelming performances the following year among middle-round RBs.
Sent this email out in June, but this was 2025's list. Pretty wild.
Sent this email out in June, but this was 2025's list. Pretty wild.
A huge reason Flacco was/is an upgrade from Browning is because he's smarter at the line and can get the ball out quicker. Per Next Gen Stats, he's faced his two lowest pressure rates of his season with Cincinnati. He's also had his two lowest time to throw rates of the season.
October 17, 2025 at 1:01 PM
A huge reason Flacco was/is an upgrade from Browning is because he's smarter at the line and can get the ball out quicker. Per Next Gen Stats, he's faced his two lowest pressure rates of his season with Cincinnati. He's also had his two lowest time to throw rates of the season.
Meeting the other team after a tie
September 29, 2025 at 4:13 AM
Meeting the other team after a tie
Normal things happening in the Late-Round Fantasy Football discord
September 21, 2025 at 6:55 PM
Normal things happening in the Late-Round Fantasy Football discord
And rookies arguably look *better* when you look only at top-18 players at the position. This, of course, is where people drafted Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty this year.
September 16, 2025 at 2:22 PM
And rookies arguably look *better* when you look only at top-18 players at the position. This, of course, is where people drafted Omarion Hampton and Ashton Jeanty this year.
So instead of just picking off examples, let's just look at the overall data!
I ran some numbers and looked at top-36 RBs by ADP since 2014 (min. 8 games played). And I sorted these backs by year in the league. I then calculated how frequently they exceeded expectation. Results:
I ran some numbers and looked at top-36 RBs by ADP since 2014 (min. 8 games played). And I sorted these backs by year in the league. I then calculated how frequently they exceeded expectation. Results:
September 16, 2025 at 2:22 PM
So instead of just picking off examples, let's just look at the overall data!
I ran some numbers and looked at top-36 RBs by ADP since 2014 (min. 8 games played). And I sorted these backs by year in the league. I then calculated how frequently they exceeded expectation. Results:
I ran some numbers and looked at top-36 RBs by ADP since 2014 (min. 8 games played). And I sorted these backs by year in the league. I then calculated how frequently they exceeded expectation. Results:
I'm going to ignore wide receivers in this discussion because 1) People aren't complaining about them and 2) They've been great bets through the years. This table from my draft guide is an example: It shows their rates of exceeding ADP expectation by 2+, 4+, and 6+ points.
September 16, 2025 at 2:22 PM
I'm going to ignore wide receivers in this discussion because 1) People aren't complaining about them and 2) They've been great bets through the years. This table from my draft guide is an example: It shows their rates of exceeding ADP expectation by 2+, 4+, and 6+ points.
Time to settle down after that Hampton performance last night
September 16, 2025 at 12:56 PM
Time to settle down after that Hampton performance last night
Almost exactly a year apart.
September 5, 2025 at 9:54 PM
Almost exactly a year apart.
My dad just found his season ticket for Penn State football that he bought for $10 when he was there in 1969
September 4, 2025 at 2:01 PM
My dad just found his season ticket for Penn State football that he bought for $10 when he was there in 1969
Talk to y'all tomorrow 🫡
September 1, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Talk to y'all tomorrow 🫡
Got to chat with the great @andyholloway.bsky.social on this week's Late-Round Perspectives. We dive into the success of the Fantasy Footballers, ambiguous backfields, quarterback values, draft strategy, and more.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/2aqK...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=glWZ...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/2aqK...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=glWZ...
August 22, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Got to chat with the great @andyholloway.bsky.social on this week's Late-Round Perspectives. We dive into the success of the Fantasy Footballers, ambiguous backfields, quarterback values, draft strategy, and more.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/2aqK...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=glWZ...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/2aqK...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=glWZ...
Me trying to forecast the Chargers wide receivers
August 6, 2025 at 12:53 AM
Me trying to forecast the Chargers wide receivers
Found this video of my dad quizzing me on the Steelers. I still talk ball, but I no longer wear an Alf onesie.
August 5, 2025 at 12:54 AM
Found this video of my dad quizzing me on the Steelers. I still talk ball, but I no longer wear an Alf onesie.
He went on to throw 50 touchdowns that year
July 26, 2025 at 10:04 PM
He went on to throw 50 touchdowns that year
This week's Perspectives guest is @jakobsanderson.bsky.social! We talk a lot of game theory, covering topics like Zero RB, the RB dead zone, and so much more.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/08OV...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL0Z...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/08OV...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL0Z...
July 11, 2025 at 11:09 AM
This week's Perspectives guest is @jakobsanderson.bsky.social! We talk a lot of game theory, covering topics like Zero RB, the RB dead zone, and so much more.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/08OV...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL0Z...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/08OV...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=LL0Z...
Hey -- the Late-Round Draft Guide launches on July 1st. You have less than a week to get it before the price jumps. Do it to it: LateRound.com
June 25, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Hey -- the Late-Round Draft Guide launches on July 1st. You have less than a week to get it before the price jumps. Do it to it: LateRound.com
It's a mailbag week. Shoot your questions my way!
June 24, 2025 at 3:46 PM
It's a mailbag week. Shoot your questions my way!
Don't forget to preorder the Late-Round Draft Guide. You can learn more about it on LateRound.com. I'm using this promotion as an excuse to post the cover of it.
June 11, 2025 at 1:57 AM
Don't forget to preorder the Late-Round Draft Guide. You can learn more about it on LateRound.com. I'm using this promotion as an excuse to post the cover of it.
Had a blast talking to Graham Barfield on today's Late-Round Perspectives episode. We dug into Yards Created and a ton of the backs in this rookie class.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/27yZ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1Io...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/27yZ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1Io...
June 6, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Had a blast talking to Graham Barfield on today's Late-Round Perspectives episode. We dug into Yards Created and a ton of the backs in this rookie class.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/27yZ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1Io...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/27yZ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=x1Io...
There's a new episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro! I talk to @richtryan.bsky.social a bit about best ball quarterbacks before I'm joined by @playerqdfs.bsky.social. Neil and I chat about the running back landscape, Zero RB, tight ends, and so much more.
June 4, 2025 at 12:19 PM
There's a new episode of Becoming a Best Ball Bro! I talk to @richtryan.bsky.social a bit about best ball quarterbacks before I'm joined by @playerqdfs.bsky.social. Neil and I chat about the running back landscape, Zero RB, tight ends, and so much more.
This week's Late-Round Perspectives guest is @dynastyrich.bsky.social! Rich and I talk about this rookie draft class, some dynasty strategy, and so much more.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/0oKJ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dEv...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/0oKJ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dEv...
May 23, 2025 at 11:37 AM
This week's Late-Round Perspectives guest is @dynastyrich.bsky.social! Rich and I talk about this rookie draft class, some dynasty strategy, and so much more.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/0oKJ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dEv...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/0oKJ...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=7dEv...
Join @davidkitchenbs.bsky.social and me on Thursday at 1PM ET for the first ever episode of The Late-Round Fantasy Football SHOW over on YouTube. We'll be talking fantasy football news, data, and late-round quarterbacks. Should be a good time.
Link: www.youtube.com/live/nuBFbkn...
Link: www.youtube.com/live/nuBFbkn...
May 21, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Join @davidkitchenbs.bsky.social and me on Thursday at 1PM ET for the first ever episode of The Late-Round Fantasy Football SHOW over on YouTube. We'll be talking fantasy football news, data, and late-round quarterbacks. Should be a good time.
Link: www.youtube.com/live/nuBFbkn...
Link: www.youtube.com/live/nuBFbkn...
Becoming a Best Ball Bro is BACK. @richtryan.bsky.social and I talk about Season 2 with DraftKings while I go over some of my initial targets and avoids.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/1kz4...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxl...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/1kz4...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxl...
May 19, 2025 at 1:38 PM
Becoming a Best Ball Bro is BACK. @richtryan.bsky.social and I talk about Season 2 with DraftKings while I go over some of my initial targets and avoids.
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/1kz4...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxl...
Listen: open.spotify.com/episode/1kz4...
Watch: www.youtube.com/watch?v=GTxl...