Kieran Doyle
@kierdoyle.bsky.social
Battery scientist by day, American Soccer Analysis, Statford Bridge Podcast by night
https://www.youtube.com/@kierdoyle
Build a bigger table
https://www.youtube.com/@kierdoyle
Build a bigger table
Chelsea are much less reliant on transition for chance creation this season. Only 5% of their shots and 12% of their xG are coming from "fast" attacks in 25/26, as opposed to 7% of shots and 13% of xG in 24/25. Small difference, but feels somewhat more sustainable.
November 12, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Chelsea are much less reliant on transition for chance creation this season. Only 5% of their shots and 12% of their xG are coming from "fast" attacks in 25/26, as opposed to 7% of shots and 13% of xG in 24/25. Small difference, but feels somewhat more sustainable.
It's probably too early to start parsing by game states and halves and such through 11 matches, but Chelsea have been much better after the first goal so far all season, and have mostly avoided fading in second halves. One to keep an eye on moving forward.
November 12, 2025 at 6:01 AM
It's probably too early to start parsing by game states and halves and such through 11 matches, but Chelsea have been much better after the first goal so far all season, and have mostly avoided fading in second halves. One to keep an eye on moving forward.
Something to keep an eye on, box touches against down from ~25 to 18, shots down from 11 to 9.5. Take out the red card minutes and Chelsea's defensive numbers looks MUCH improved (1.24 xGA p90 down to 0.86 xGA p90 11v11, no penalties).
November 12, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Something to keep an eye on, box touches against down from ~25 to 18, shots down from 11 to 9.5. Take out the red card minutes and Chelsea's defensive numbers looks MUCH improved (1.24 xGA p90 down to 0.86 xGA p90 11v11, no penalties).
Wanted to check in on Chelsea as we're at 11 games and have enough data that it's not just some hand wavey stuff.
Headlines, team is very similar to last year across most metrics. Slightly down on the attack/xGD/GD due to red cards (-5 GD and similar xGD down a player).
Headlines, team is very similar to last year across most metrics. Slightly down on the attack/xGD/GD due to red cards (-5 GD and similar xGD down a player).
November 12, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Wanted to check in on Chelsea as we're at 11 games and have enough data that it's not just some hand wavey stuff.
Headlines, team is very similar to last year across most metrics. Slightly down on the attack/xGD/GD due to red cards (-5 GD and similar xGD down a player).
Headlines, team is very similar to last year across most metrics. Slightly down on the attack/xGD/GD due to red cards (-5 GD and similar xGD down a player).
Is it good to give up 6 shots inside the width of the 6 and inside 12 yards in a half?
October 27, 2025 at 12:31 AM
Is it good to give up 6 shots inside the width of the 6 and inside 12 yards in a half?
Orlando had their best underlyings ever under Pareja, but it was actually their defense that just completely fell apart down the stretch (and they have gotten SMACKED today)
October 23, 2025 at 2:09 AM
Orlando had their best underlyings ever under Pareja, but it was actually their defense that just completely fell apart down the stretch (and they have gotten SMACKED today)
Got this text from a former player today. A really nice feeling.
October 19, 2025 at 12:24 AM
Got this text from a former player today. A really nice feeling.
French onion soup danish 🤤
October 18, 2025 at 3:22 PM
French onion soup danish 🤤
3 drinks later I’m leaned on the counter like this and I refuse to sit down
October 11, 2025 at 4:45 AM
3 drinks later I’m leaned on the counter like this and I refuse to sit down
My most significant Raptors 2025/26 take is that CMB is a very large human being
October 9, 2025 at 12:58 AM
My most significant Raptors 2025/26 take is that CMB is a very large human being
100% true, I always share this plot.
Unless you’re 90th percentile or better (or 10th percentile or worse) you need like 5+ seasons of data.
Unless you’re 90th percentile or better (or 10th percentile or worse) you need like 5+ seasons of data.
October 5, 2025 at 2:32 AM
100% true, I always share this plot.
Unless you’re 90th percentile or better (or 10th percentile or worse) you need like 5+ seasons of data.
Unless you’re 90th percentile or better (or 10th percentile or worse) you need like 5+ seasons of data.
TFC have $1.3m in GAM, they’ll get another ~$3M for next season, and they’ve got ~$4M in expiring contracts.
The blankest of slates. Can’t wait to see how the mess it up!
The blankest of slates. Can’t wait to see how the mess it up!
September 26, 2025 at 3:28 PM
TFC have $1.3m in GAM, they’ll get another ~$3M for next season, and they’ve got ~$4M in expiring contracts.
The blankest of slates. Can’t wait to see how the mess it up!
The blankest of slates. Can’t wait to see how the mess it up!
Jorgensen when he seeks a ball in the air in the box
September 20, 2025 at 7:26 PM
Jorgensen when he seeks a ball in the air in the box
Nothing I love more than when analytics research backs up things that just obviously completely make sense
September 3, 2025 at 3:27 PM
Nothing I love more than when analytics research backs up things that just obviously completely make sense
Small sample size and who knows how meaningful comparing exact match to exact match (probably not) is year over year but,
August 30, 2025 at 1:44 PM
Small sample size and who knows how meaningful comparing exact match to exact match (probably not) is year over year but,
Ederson heads Mane's boot, yellow for simulation imo
August 28, 2025 at 4:51 AM
Ederson heads Mane's boot, yellow for simulation imo
Given Garnacho's historical output, squad registration status, and age profile, it's a low risk investment.
The major question between him and Simons is whether you want to index on off ball movement or passing/chance creation. I lean off ball movement. Chelsea have passing.
The major question between him and Simons is whether you want to index on off ball movement or passing/chance creation. I lean off ball movement. Chelsea have passing.
August 28, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Given Garnacho's historical output, squad registration status, and age profile, it's a low risk investment.
The major question between him and Simons is whether you want to index on off ball movement or passing/chance creation. I lean off ball movement. Chelsea have passing.
The major question between him and Simons is whether you want to index on off ball movement or passing/chance creation. I lean off ball movement. Chelsea have passing.
Garnacho pops on possession value metrics, particularly when graded against other U21 and U23 wingers.
He lacks top end passing/dribbling output, but moves the ball into the box A LOT for someone with such low touch count/usage.
He lacks top end passing/dribbling output, but moves the ball into the box A LOT for someone with such low touch count/usage.
August 28, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Garnacho pops on possession value metrics, particularly when graded against other U21 and U23 wingers.
He lacks top end passing/dribbling output, but moves the ball into the box A LOT for someone with such low touch count/usage.
He lacks top end passing/dribbling output, but moves the ball into the box A LOT for someone with such low touch count/usage.
Garnacho is an extreme player. He doesn't contribute in build up, he's not a prolific passer, he does 2 things. He shoots a lot from pretty good spots, and he carries the ball into the box.
Why do we like this player? He gets into the box.
Why do we like this player? He gets into the box.
August 28, 2025 at 4:15 AM
Garnacho is an extreme player. He doesn't contribute in build up, he's not a prolific passer, he does 2 things. He shoots a lot from pretty good spots, and he carries the ball into the box.
Why do we like this player? He gets into the box.
Why do we like this player? He gets into the box.
You’ll live with that second half v Palace every day of every week
August 17, 2025 at 2:59 PM
You’ll live with that second half v Palace every day of every week