The book also speaks to our current authoritarian moment. Like other brands of reactionary politics, counterrevolution has been on the rise in recent years (following decades of decline). The book explains why, and connects these trends to broader global dynamics of democratic backsliding

But if they prioritize old regime appeasement, their coalitions may collapse and they may be overwhelmed by social unrest – which opens a path for counterrevolutionaries to return.

Check out, for example, unrest in Egypt in the year and a half before the coup (these are weekly protest counts):

But even unarmed, democratic revolutions – like Egypt’s – often fare pretty well against counterrevolutions. More than two-thirds of them manage to survive

In the aftermath of Egypt’s coup – and the broader failures of the 2011 Arab revolutions – a lot of people have argued that this outcome was unavoidable.

But actually, the data I collected reveal that over 80% of revolutionary governments either avoid or survive counterrevolutions

There's a book launch at Georgetown on October 30, hosted by @mortaracenter.bsky.social and with my fantastic colleague @laiabalcells.bsky.social as discussant. If you’re in the DC area, please consider joining!

🚨🚨 I’m thrilled to share that my book, Return of Tyranny: Why Counterrevolutions Emerge and Succeed, will be published this month with @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org in their Comparative Politics Series