Jumana Saleheen, PhD
@jumanasaleheen.bsky.social
Chief Economist at Vanguard, Europe. Talks about the economy and markets. Former Bank of England. Spent time at the Boston Fed. Loves blackberries. She|Her.
Thanks to @channel4news.bsky.social for inviting me on the show to talk about April’s inflation print.
May 21, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Thanks to @channel4news.bsky.social for inviting me on the show to talk about April’s inflation print.
Inflation rising above 3% for the first time since March 2024.
May 21, 2025 at 6:56 AM
Inflation rising above 3% for the first time since March 2024.
US effective tariff on China=39%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
May 18, 2025 at 2:53 PM
US effective tariff on China=39%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
On @bloomberg.com last week talking about trade deals!
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
May 16, 2025 at 9:58 AM
On @bloomberg.com last week talking about trade deals!
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
CPI inflation fell today. But it’s partly due to lower energy prices.
Going forward economists expect inflation to rise.
Going forward economists expect inflation to rise.
April 16, 2025 at 6:42 PM
CPI inflation fell today. But it’s partly due to lower energy prices.
Going forward economists expect inflation to rise.
Going forward economists expect inflation to rise.
Thanks to @bloomberg.com for having me on the show this morning to talk about tariffs, exchange rates and central banks.
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April 16, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Thanks to @bloomberg.com for having me on the show this morning to talk about tariffs, exchange rates and central banks.
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🧵
April 10, 2025 at 7:11 PM
China places 84% tariffs on US goods.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
April 10, 2025 at 7:01 PM
China places 84% tariffs on US goods.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
Stocks recover today, but not fully!
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
April 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Stocks recover today, but not fully!
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
US tariffs of 145% on. China means
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
April 10, 2025 at 6:30 PM
US tariffs of 145% on. China means
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
Not a good day for European stocks.
April 9, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Not a good day for European stocks.
It was an honour to appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee last week.
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
April 9, 2025 at 6:51 AM
It was an honour to appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee last week.
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
US Treasuries hit hard.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
April 9, 2025 at 6:40 AM
US Treasuries hit hard.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
S&P has fallen by over 500 points (10%) in the last couple of days.
April 9, 2025 at 6:25 AM
S&P has fallen by over 500 points (10%) in the last couple of days.
The chart below doesn’t include the 50% uplift to Chinese goods which was announced last night. That would take the total rise in Chinese tariffs in 2025 to 104%.
April 9, 2025 at 6:23 AM
The chart below doesn’t include the 50% uplift to Chinese goods which was announced last night. That would take the total rise in Chinese tariffs in 2025 to 104%.
Liberation day tariffs.
1. Min 10% on all countries
2. Higher rate applies to countries listed in image below.
EU 20%
UK 10%
China 34%
Rates are 1/2 the estimated reciprocal tariff.
Based on what the countries charge as monetary and non-monetary tariffs on US goods.
1. Min 10% on all countries
2. Higher rate applies to countries listed in image below.
EU 20%
UK 10%
China 34%
Rates are 1/2 the estimated reciprocal tariff.
Based on what the countries charge as monetary and non-monetary tariffs on US goods.
April 2, 2025 at 8:57 PM
Liberation day tariffs.
1. Min 10% on all countries
2. Higher rate applies to countries listed in image below.
EU 20%
UK 10%
China 34%
Rates are 1/2 the estimated reciprocal tariff.
Based on what the countries charge as monetary and non-monetary tariffs on US goods.
1. Min 10% on all countries
2. Higher rate applies to countries listed in image below.
EU 20%
UK 10%
China 34%
Rates are 1/2 the estimated reciprocal tariff.
Based on what the countries charge as monetary and non-monetary tariffs on US goods.
All goods to see a minimum of 10% tariff.
Some economies will see a higher rate. It will be one-half of a calculated reciprocal tariff.
The "reciprocal" tariff rate is based on a government tally of the levies and non-tariff barriers that other countries impose on US goods.
Some economies will see a higher rate. It will be one-half of a calculated reciprocal tariff.
The "reciprocal" tariff rate is based on a government tally of the levies and non-tariff barriers that other countries impose on US goods.
April 2, 2025 at 8:44 PM
All goods to see a minimum of 10% tariff.
Some economies will see a higher rate. It will be one-half of a calculated reciprocal tariff.
The "reciprocal" tariff rate is based on a government tally of the levies and non-tariff barriers that other countries impose on US goods.
Some economies will see a higher rate. It will be one-half of a calculated reciprocal tariff.
The "reciprocal" tariff rate is based on a government tally of the levies and non-tariff barriers that other countries impose on US goods.
Happy International Women’s Day!
Last week it was an honour to be on a panel with our President at CIO Greg Davis and our Head of Fixed Income, Sara Devereaux.
Topic: Visibility. How being seen and heard can advance your career. Being visible can creates opportunities.
Last week it was an honour to be on a panel with our President at CIO Greg Davis and our Head of Fixed Income, Sara Devereaux.
Topic: Visibility. How being seen and heard can advance your career. Being visible can creates opportunities.
March 9, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Happy International Women’s Day!
Last week it was an honour to be on a panel with our President at CIO Greg Davis and our Head of Fixed Income, Sara Devereaux.
Topic: Visibility. How being seen and heard can advance your career. Being visible can creates opportunities.
Last week it was an honour to be on a panel with our President at CIO Greg Davis and our Head of Fixed Income, Sara Devereaux.
Topic: Visibility. How being seen and heard can advance your career. Being visible can creates opportunities.
US #inflation - the last mile back to 2% is taking time.
February 12, 2025 at 9:23 PM
US #inflation - the last mile back to 2% is taking time.
Love all the questions from the audience!
January 29, 2025 at 11:31 AM
Love all the questions from the audience!
Now for our amazing panel discussion.
First question from mehreen khan. Why is our wealth and inheritance tax so controversial?
First question from mehreen khan. Why is our wealth and inheritance tax so controversial?
January 29, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Now for our amazing panel discussion.
First question from mehreen khan. Why is our wealth and inheritance tax so controversial?
First question from mehreen khan. Why is our wealth and inheritance tax so controversial?
Ageing and a move away from DB to DC pensions is putting a greater burden on individuals to save for retirement.
January 29, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Ageing and a move away from DB to DC pensions is putting a greater burden on individuals to save for retirement.
Some photos of the event. So lucky to have an amazing panel of women experts.
January 29, 2025 at 10:48 AM
Some photos of the event. So lucky to have an amazing panel of women experts.
Vanguard are excited to co-host an expert panel event on aging in Britain. The event has now started.
January 29, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Vanguard are excited to co-host an expert panel event on aging in Britain. The event has now started.
Half and half!
Analysis of UK gilt yield moves in January show that about half the rise is mimicked by changes in the US(global). And half come from UK specific factors.
UK Markets Cap Dire Week With Yields Stuck Near Decade Highs www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Analysis of UK gilt yield moves in January show that about half the rise is mimicked by changes in the US(global). And half come from UK specific factors.
UK Markets Cap Dire Week With Yields Stuck Near Decade Highs www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
January 10, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Half and half!
Analysis of UK gilt yield moves in January show that about half the rise is mimicked by changes in the US(global). And half come from UK specific factors.
UK Markets Cap Dire Week With Yields Stuck Near Decade Highs www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Analysis of UK gilt yield moves in January show that about half the rise is mimicked by changes in the US(global). And half come from UK specific factors.
UK Markets Cap Dire Week With Yields Stuck Near Decade Highs www.bloomberg.com/news/article...