Jumana Saleheen, PhD
@jumanasaleheen.bsky.social
Chief Economist at Vanguard, Europe. Talks about the economy and markets. Former Bank of England. Spent time at the Boston Fed. Loves blackberries. She|Her.
Pinned
It was an honour to appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee last week.
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
UK inflation higher than expected in April. A 🧵
Outturn=3.5%
Expected=3.3%
Last month=2.6%
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to April 2025, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to March.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
Outturn=3.5%
Expected=3.3%
Last month=2.6%
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to April 2025, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to March.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
Consumer price inflation, UK - Office for National Statistics
Price indices, percentage changes, and weights for the different measures of consumer price inflation.
www.ons.gov.uk
May 21, 2025 at 6:50 AM
UK inflation higher than expected in April. A 🧵
Outturn=3.5%
Expected=3.3%
Last month=2.6%
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to April 2025, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to March.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
Outturn=3.5%
Expected=3.3%
Last month=2.6%
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) rose by 3.5% in the 12 months to April 2025, up from 2.6% in the 12 months to March.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl...
Anticipation builds ahead of UK CPI inflation print tomorrow.
Inflation in April expected to ⬆️
April consensus view=3.3% March actual=2.6%
Inflation target=2%
Inflation looks to be going in the wrong direction.
But April’s figure is plagued by noise…
moneyweek.com/economy/live...
Inflation in April expected to ⬆️
April consensus view=3.3% March actual=2.6%
Inflation target=2%
Inflation looks to be going in the wrong direction.
But April’s figure is plagued by noise…
moneyweek.com/economy/live...
UK inflation expected to hit highest level in over a year
The headline rate of UK inflation is expected to jump from 2.6% to 3.4% when April’s data is published tomorrow
moneyweek.com
May 20, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Anticipation builds ahead of UK CPI inflation print tomorrow.
Inflation in April expected to ⬆️
April consensus view=3.3% March actual=2.6%
Inflation target=2%
Inflation looks to be going in the wrong direction.
But April’s figure is plagued by noise…
moneyweek.com/economy/live...
Inflation in April expected to ⬆️
April consensus view=3.3% March actual=2.6%
Inflation target=2%
Inflation looks to be going in the wrong direction.
But April’s figure is plagued by noise…
moneyweek.com/economy/live...
US effective tariff on China=39%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
May 18, 2025 at 2:53 PM
US effective tariff on China=39%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
China effective tariff on the US=27%
On @bloomberg.com last week talking about trade deals!
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
May 16, 2025 at 9:58 AM
On @bloomberg.com last week talking about trade deals!
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
Trade deals that bring tariffs down from liberation day highs are great news. They improve the outlook.
That said RELATIVE to 6 months ago tariffs are higher. Outlook weaker.
Fed decision today
No change.
Didn’t really learn much about where next.
We heard a lot about uncertainty.
We heard the risks were to the upside on inflation and unemployment.
Dual mandate pulling in opposite directions.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/05/...
No change.
Didn’t really learn much about where next.
We heard a lot about uncertainty.
We heard the risks were to the upside on inflation and unemployment.
Dual mandate pulling in opposite directions.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/05/...
Fed meeting recap: Powell rules out a preemptive rate cut to blunt any tariff impact
The central bank held steady on rates, keeping them at a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, but highlighted rising inflation risk.
www.cnbc.com
May 7, 2025 at 9:03 PM
Fed decision today
No change.
Didn’t really learn much about where next.
We heard a lot about uncertainty.
We heard the risks were to the upside on inflation and unemployment.
Dual mandate pulling in opposite directions.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/05/...
No change.
Didn’t really learn much about where next.
We heard a lot about uncertainty.
We heard the risks were to the upside on inflation and unemployment.
Dual mandate pulling in opposite directions.
www.cnbc.com/amp/2025/05/...
News: US NFP =177k in April
Higher than expected= 130k
Jobs growth =185k in March
Why this matters: Strong jobs data shows that elevated policy uncertainty and soft sentiment data is not yet reflected in hard data.
www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomi...
Higher than expected= 130k
Jobs growth =185k in March
Why this matters: Strong jobs data shows that elevated policy uncertainty and soft sentiment data is not yet reflected in hard data.
www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomi...
NonFarm Payrolls Forecast
Everything you need to keep informed about NonFarm Payroll Forecast. Check this estimation of nonfarm employment based on the private sector businesses
www.fxstreet.com
May 2, 2025 at 2:31 PM
News: US NFP =177k in April
Higher than expected= 130k
Jobs growth =185k in March
Why this matters: Strong jobs data shows that elevated policy uncertainty and soft sentiment data is not yet reflected in hard data.
www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomi...
Higher than expected= 130k
Jobs growth =185k in March
Why this matters: Strong jobs data shows that elevated policy uncertainty and soft sentiment data is not yet reflected in hard data.
www.fxstreet.com/macroeconomi...
Thanks to @bloomberg.com for having me on the show this morning to talk about tariffs, exchange rates and central banks.
🧵
🧵
April 16, 2025 at 5:49 PM
Thanks to @bloomberg.com for having me on the show this morning to talk about tariffs, exchange rates and central banks.
🧵
🧵
Uk headline inflation falls to 2.6% in March.
2.8% in Feb.
pretty much as we had expected.
Core inflation
3.4% March 2025
3.5% February
CPI goods annual rate eased from 0.8% to 0.6%
CPI services annual rate slowed from 5.0% to 4.7%.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl....
2.8% in Feb.
pretty much as we had expected.
Core inflation
3.4% March 2025
3.5% February
CPI goods annual rate eased from 0.8% to 0.6%
CPI services annual rate slowed from 5.0% to 4.7%.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl....
UK inflation rate falls by more than expected to 2.6% in March - live updates
The Bank of England has forecast inflation to rise further this year to 3.7%, and stay above its 2% target until the end of 2027.
www.bbc.co.uk
April 16, 2025 at 6:16 AM
Uk headline inflation falls to 2.6% in March.
2.8% in Feb.
pretty much as we had expected.
Core inflation
3.4% March 2025
3.5% February
CPI goods annual rate eased from 0.8% to 0.6%
CPI services annual rate slowed from 5.0% to 4.7%.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl....
2.8% in Feb.
pretty much as we had expected.
Core inflation
3.4% March 2025
3.5% February
CPI goods annual rate eased from 0.8% to 0.6%
CPI services annual rate slowed from 5.0% to 4.7%.
www.ons.gov.uk/economy/infl....
Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings excluding bonuses in Great Britain was 5.9% in December 2024 to February 2025, and annual growth in total earnings including bonuses was 5.6%.
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
Labour market overview, UK - Office for National Statistics
Estimates of employment, unemployment, economic inactivity and other employment-related statistics for the UK.
www.ons.gov.uk
April 15, 2025 at 7:36 AM
Annual growth in employees' average regular earnings excluding bonuses in Great Britain was 5.9% in December 2024 to February 2025, and annual growth in total earnings including bonuses was 5.6%.
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
www.ons.gov.uk/employmentan...
UK wage growth rose 5.9%!! Data released today.
The ONS said pay excluding bonuses rose 5.9% in the three months, up from 5.8% in the period through January. Private-sector wage growth, held at 5.9%.
That is high! But data measurement means we don’t know if this is driven by compositional changes.
The ONS said pay excluding bonuses rose 5.9% in the three months, up from 5.8% in the period through January. Private-sector wage growth, held at 5.9%.
That is high! But data measurement means we don’t know if this is driven by compositional changes.
April 15, 2025 at 7:27 AM
UK wage growth rose 5.9%!! Data released today.
The ONS said pay excluding bonuses rose 5.9% in the three months, up from 5.8% in the period through January. Private-sector wage growth, held at 5.9%.
That is high! But data measurement means we don’t know if this is driven by compositional changes.
The ONS said pay excluding bonuses rose 5.9% in the three months, up from 5.8% in the period through January. Private-sector wage growth, held at 5.9%.
That is high! But data measurement means we don’t know if this is driven by compositional changes.
Tariffs have surprised to the upside. We judge that negotiations will give rise to a small fall in the effective of tariff rate. Our new macros forecasts can be found here.
ifamagazine.com/vanguard-ami...
ifamagazine.com/vanguard-ami...
Vanguard: amid turbulence – a new economic outlook for the UK and Europe - IFA Magazine
Jumana Saleheen, Chief Economist, Vanguard, Europe comments:
ifamagazine.com
April 12, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Tariffs have surprised to the upside. We judge that negotiations will give rise to a small fall in the effective of tariff rate. Our new macros forecasts can be found here.
ifamagazine.com/vanguard-ami...
ifamagazine.com/vanguard-ami...
China places 84% tariffs on US goods.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
April 10, 2025 at 7:01 PM
China places 84% tariffs on US goods.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
US places a 145% on Chinese goods.
The trade war escalates.
In the middle of a US-China trade war.
April 10, 2025 at 6:44 PM
In the middle of a US-China trade war.
Stocks recover today, but not fully!
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
April 10, 2025 at 6:43 PM
Stocks recover today, but not fully!
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
The 90 day pause of liberation day tariffs (for all except China) provides relief to global stock.
But stocks are still below levels seen prior to Liberation day. Stocks dip down again as the China/US tariff got for that continues.
EU pauses the tariffs it had intended to place on the US in retaliation for the steel, aluminium and auto tariffs that were placed on the EU.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
EU suspends retaliatory 25% tariffs on US goods after Trump U-turn
‘We want to give negotiations a chance,’ says Ursula von der Leyen in announcement of 90-day pause
www.theguardian.com
April 10, 2025 at 6:35 PM
EU pauses the tariffs it had intended to place on the US in retaliation for the steel, aluminium and auto tariffs that were placed on the EU.
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
www.theguardian.com/world/2025/a...
US tariffs of 145% on. China means
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
April 10, 2025 at 6:30 PM
US tariffs of 145% on. China means
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
=>trade just stops between the two economies
=> shares and bonds yields plummet again
www.theguardian.com/business/liv...
The trade and financial channel are linked.
trade people: i see the finance people are making this all about them
April 9, 2025 at 9:34 AM
The trade and financial channel are linked.
Commodities: Gold ⬆️
Currencies: Euro ⬆️
Stocks: ⬇️
Bond yields:
long end - 10 yr ⬆️
short end - 2 yr ⬇️ Europe
Currencies: Euro ⬆️
Stocks: ⬇️
Bond yields:
long end - 10 yr ⬆️
short end - 2 yr ⬇️ Europe
April 9, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Commodities: Gold ⬆️
Currencies: Euro ⬆️
Stocks: ⬇️
Bond yields:
long end - 10 yr ⬆️
short end - 2 yr ⬇️ Europe
Currencies: Euro ⬆️
Stocks: ⬇️
Bond yields:
long end - 10 yr ⬆️
short end - 2 yr ⬇️ Europe
Not a good day for European stocks.
April 9, 2025 at 7:07 AM
Not a good day for European stocks.
The dollar has weakened against its G7 peers.
The euro jumping as much as 1% to $1.1069.
The euro jumping as much as 1% to $1.1069.
April 9, 2025 at 7:03 AM
The dollar has weakened against its G7 peers.
The euro jumping as much as 1% to $1.1069.
The euro jumping as much as 1% to $1.1069.
Markets start to pricing in more rate cuts in 2025.
BoE now expected to cut 4 times in 2025.
BoE now expected to cut 4 times in 2025.
April 9, 2025 at 7:01 AM
Markets start to pricing in more rate cuts in 2025.
BoE now expected to cut 4 times in 2025.
BoE now expected to cut 4 times in 2025.
It was an honour to appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee last week.
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
April 9, 2025 at 6:51 AM
It was an honour to appear in front of the Treasury Select Committee last week.
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
A key question was: how tariffs might affect the UK economy and the fiscal finances.
They also asked about how markets price fiscal risk. Answer: bond markets prefer fiscal rules to be met.
#TSC #SpringStatement2025
US Treasuries hit hard.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
April 9, 2025 at 6:40 AM
US Treasuries hit hard.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
10-year yield jumps to 4.51% before easing to 4.42%.
S&P has fallen by over 500 points (10%) in the last couple of days.
April 9, 2025 at 6:25 AM
S&P has fallen by over 500 points (10%) in the last couple of days.
The chart below doesn’t include the 50% uplift to Chinese goods which was announced last night. That would take the total rise in Chinese tariffs in 2025 to 104%.
April 9, 2025 at 6:23 AM
The chart below doesn’t include the 50% uplift to Chinese goods which was announced last night. That would take the total rise in Chinese tariffs in 2025 to 104%.