Julian King
@juliankingnz.bsky.social
Public policy consultant | Evaluation and Value for Investment at https://juliankingnz.substack.com
The big idea behind this framework is deceptively simple: social investments have value propositions, and if we can define the value proposition, we can evaluate how well it is being met.
This simplicity carries profound implications…
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
This simplicity carries profound implications…
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Navigating donor wants and needs in evaluation - part 2
A solution to the impact theatre problem we identified in part 1
open.substack.com
November 10, 2025 at 7:06 PM
The big idea behind this framework is deceptively simple: social investments have value propositions, and if we can define the value proposition, we can evaluate how well it is being met.
This simplicity carries profound implications…
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
This simplicity carries profound implications…
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Impact theatre can divert NGOs away from their purpose and values. In this blog we lay out the problem. Next week, we’ll offer a way forward . open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Navigating donor wants and needs in evaluation - Part 1
The case of the 1000 Days Fund
open.substack.com
November 5, 2025 at 3:41 AM
Impact theatre can divert NGOs away from their purpose and values. In this blog we lay out the problem. Next week, we’ll offer a way forward . open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Instant coffee isn’t a bad drink. Its only crime is the use of the name “coffee”. It should have a different name to avoid misleading. Similarly, “evaluator-free evaluation” may provide useful and valid analysis - it just shouldn’t use the name “evaluation”.👇
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Evaluator-free evaluation
A one-minute and one-hour evaluation, by Perplexity Pro
open.substack.com
October 20, 2025 at 8:56 PM
Instant coffee isn’t a bad drink. Its only crime is the use of the name “coffee”. It should have a different name to avoid misleading. Similarly, “evaluator-free evaluation” may provide useful and valid analysis - it just shouldn’t use the name “evaluation”.👇
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
October 20, 2025 at 7:29 AM
Reposted by Julian King
Just in case anyone wants to add Simeon or Luxons face to this for Thursdays strike
October 18, 2025 at 7:56 PM
Just in case anyone wants to add Simeon or Luxons face to this for Thursdays strike
AI is super, super useful and I won’t be told otherwise.
October 19, 2025 at 5:49 AM
AI is super, super useful and I won’t be told otherwise.
October 14, 2025 at 2:02 PM
Rather than making evaluators obsolete, I could see AI increasing demand for evaluation, but only if we get the mix of human and AI inputs right. Woe betide those who get the mix wrong…
"Deloitte Australia will issue a partial refund to the federal government after admitting that artificial intelligence had been used in the creation of a $440,000 report littered with errors including three nonexistent academic references and a made-up quote from a Federal Court judgement."
October 6, 2025 at 11:53 PM
Rather than making evaluators obsolete, I could see AI increasing demand for evaluation, but only if we get the mix of human and AI inputs right. Woe betide those who get the mix wrong…
Will AI make evaluators redundant? Or could it enable better, quicker, cheaper evaluation, boosting demand and making evaluators busier than ever?
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
October 6, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Will AI make evaluators redundant? Or could it enable better, quicker, cheaper evaluation, boosting demand and making evaluators busier than ever?
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
This has been up for less than 2 weeks and is already my most read blog post of all 147 to date. It’s always the one you least suspect eh… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Applying Bradford Hill Criteria to observational evidence
Towards evidentiary criteria for causal inference in evaluation
open.substack.com
September 30, 2025 at 2:54 AM
This has been up for less than 2 weeks and is already my most read blog post of all 147 to date. It’s always the one you least suspect eh… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Reposted by Julian King
Wow look at this street. There must be incredible productivity gains on this crucial economic route from Simeon Browns blanket speed increases. So safe, and so fitting at 50km/h!
September 27, 2025 at 7:38 AM
Wow look at this street. There must be incredible productivity gains on this crucial economic route from Simeon Browns blanket speed increases. So safe, and so fitting at 50km/h!
Reposted by Julian King
Had to witness this for myself – it’s real, and even worse as seen from the footpath.
(Context: these narrow back-streets had a community-supported 30kmh speed limit… but in mid-2025, were forcibly reverted to 50kmh by the current govt.)
Dangerous, petty, ridiculous kneejerk vice-signalling, ugh.
(Context: these narrow back-streets had a community-supported 30kmh speed limit… but in mid-2025, were forcibly reverted to 50kmh by the current govt.)
Dangerous, petty, ridiculous kneejerk vice-signalling, ugh.
September 27, 2025 at 10:31 PM
Had to witness this for myself – it’s real, and even worse as seen from the footpath.
(Context: these narrow back-streets had a community-supported 30kmh speed limit… but in mid-2025, were forcibly reverted to 50kmh by the current govt.)
Dangerous, petty, ridiculous kneejerk vice-signalling, ugh.
(Context: these narrow back-streets had a community-supported 30kmh speed limit… but in mid-2025, were forcibly reverted to 50kmh by the current govt.)
Dangerous, petty, ridiculous kneejerk vice-signalling, ugh.
The pipe dream of objectivity is alluring but doomed - the real choice is between making values explicit or hiding them under a rug.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
September 4, 2025 at 3:16 AM
The pipe dream of objectivity is alluring but doomed - the real choice is between making values explicit or hiding them under a rug.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Goldilocks and the Three Criteria - not too specific, not too vague: just right.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
September 2, 2025 at 5:04 AM
Goldilocks and the Three Criteria - not too specific, not too vague: just right.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Value is more than a number, but the number travels halfway around the world while the full value story is pulling its boots on.
Welcome to Episode 141 of Old Man Yells at Cloud...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Welcome to Episode 141 of Old Man Yells at Cloud...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Communicating value
The headline travels around the world while the real story is pulling its boots on
open.substack.com
August 18, 2025 at 10:55 PM
Value is more than a number, but the number travels halfway around the world while the full value story is pulling its boots on.
Welcome to Episode 141 of Old Man Yells at Cloud...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Welcome to Episode 141 of Old Man Yells at Cloud...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
There are some who believe the only real #evaluation is one that sums up an entire policy or program in a single number.
I see genuine value in that number. But only if it’s used right. It’s not objective, nor precise. It doesn't count everything that matters.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
I see genuine value in that number. But only if it’s used right. It’s not objective, nor precise. It doesn't count everything that matters.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Ten Commandments for Social CBA and SROI
The Stone Tablets of Social Value
open.substack.com
July 22, 2025 at 9:37 PM
There are some who believe the only real #evaluation is one that sums up an entire policy or program in a single number.
I see genuine value in that number. But only if it’s used right. It’s not objective, nor precise. It doesn't count everything that matters.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
I see genuine value in that number. But only if it’s used right. It’s not objective, nor precise. It doesn't count everything that matters.
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Ten Commandments for social cost-benefit analysis (#CBA) and social return on investment (#SROI).
Coming up next. Subscribe so you don’t miss it. Also check out my discount offer!
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Coming up next. Subscribe so you don’t miss it. Also check out my discount offer!
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
July 20, 2025 at 10:21 PM
Ten Commandments for social cost-benefit analysis (#CBA) and social return on investment (#SROI).
Coming up next. Subscribe so you don’t miss it. Also check out my discount offer!
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Coming up next. Subscribe so you don’t miss it. Also check out my discount offer!
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
In the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams talked about circumpolar cultures having over 200 different words for snow because it’s such a big part of their lives.
Should evaluators have over 200 words for epistemic harm? I managed to think of 42… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Should evaluators have over 200 words for epistemic harm? I managed to think of 42… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Is evaluation violent? Part 2
Summing up
open.substack.com
July 10, 2025 at 12:30 AM
In the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams talked about circumpolar cultures having over 200 different words for snow because it’s such a big part of their lives.
Should evaluators have over 200 words for epistemic harm? I managed to think of 42… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Should evaluators have over 200 words for epistemic harm? I managed to think of 42… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
#Realist #Economic #Evaluation: a new hybrid methodology with big potential… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Realist economic evaluation
Not just “is the intervention worth it?” but how, for whom, when, and why
open.substack.com
June 17, 2025 at 6:16 AM
#Realist #Economic #Evaluation: a new hybrid methodology with big potential… open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
For decades, Cost-Benefit Analysis has been central to how the U.S. makes regulations, weighing gains and losses to society. But as the political landscape evolves, will CBA emphasise cost minimisation over the wider public good, undermining its intended purpose?👇
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Cost-benefit analysis in U.S. regulatory decision-making
What does the future hold?
open.substack.com
May 26, 2025 at 10:18 AM
For decades, Cost-Benefit Analysis has been central to how the U.S. makes regulations, weighing gains and losses to society. But as the political landscape evolves, will CBA emphasise cost minimisation over the wider public good, undermining its intended purpose?👇
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Human judgement isn’t a flaw in the process - it is the process. Making good decisions that enhance public value in spending reviews👇
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Value for Disinvestment
When budgets are shrinking and you have to decide what to let go of, it’s an opportunity to increase value from the remaining resources.
open.substack.com
April 22, 2025 at 10:25 PM
Human judgement isn’t a flaw in the process - it is the process. Making good decisions that enhance public value in spending reviews👇
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
Sharepoint! MFA so effective even you can’t access your files.
March 27, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Sharepoint! MFA so effective even you can’t access your files.
Cost-benefit analysis, born out of an attempt to establish ‘objective’ standards by which policies could be deemed economically desirable or not, remains as subjective as any other evaluation method at our disposal. Still useful tho. My take:
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
March 1, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Cost-benefit analysis, born out of an attempt to establish ‘objective’ standards by which policies could be deemed economically desirable or not, remains as subjective as any other evaluation method at our disposal. Still useful tho. My take:
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...
open.substack.com/pub/julianki...