Julian Spencer-Churchill, Ph.D. Columbia University, Capt 3 FER
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julian-churchill.bsky.social
Julian Spencer-Churchill, Ph.D. Columbia University, Capt 3 FER
@julian-churchill.bsky.social
7 followers 1 following 28 posts
Associate Professor of Political Science at Concordia University
https://publishing7.webnode.com/
https://muckrack.com/julian-spencer-churchill/articles
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCJ9qXW39CcNcyuzwyvZQzew/videos
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julian-churchill.bsky.social
It is the petty interference in the domestic affairs of other states such as Brazil, not on the issue of preserving democracy, but on controversies related to a genderized culture war, that is wounding the prospect of any future war coalition against China.
moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/08/13/t...
The Very High Cost of Getting Brazil to Help in a China-Taiwan War
For most of the time since the beginning of the 20th century, Brazil has been a close ally of the U.S., participating in both the First and Second World Wars.
moderndiplomacy.eu
August 13, 2025 at 12:58 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
For far too long Canadian leaders have pursued a foreign policy of a world they would like to imagine, believing we have come to the end of history, rather than one that really exists.

www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com
July 21, 2025 at 10:51 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Donald Trump has cut the Gordian Knot of legitimizing the bombing Iran that should have been done against North Korea in 1994. He preserved his political base, enhanced the U.S. national interest, and reinvigorated the U.S.'s compellent reputation.

www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com
July 2, 2025 at 12:32 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Even a man as self-confidently powerful as Ronald Reagan spoke in terms of peace and nuclear disarmament because he recognized how doubly vulnerable the U.S. was, as a capitalist democracy, to the spread of nuclear weapons. Fract. Orbital Bomb. Syst. are cheap.

moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/29/p...
Presidents Must Never Brandish the Power of Nukes
There are many dangerous and unpredictable opportunities for the use of nuclear weapons in the ongoing Iranian-Israeli rivalry and periodic violent flare-ups.
moderndiplomacy.eu
June 29, 2025 at 12:33 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Washington (& Moscow) may find sponsorship of an Israeli-Indian effort to denuclearize Pakistan's arsenal irresistible, the last one of a Muslim state, as it would free India's armed forces to focus on China.

moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/24/o...
Once Israel Defeats Iran, Pakistan is Next
Tel Aviv’s strategy of striking by air against the nuclear proliferation efforts of its neighboring adversaries has been continuously rewarded
moderndiplomacy.eu
June 24, 2025 at 5:09 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
One way to avoid apology fatigue is to anticipate issues. Canada's Liberal Party needs to save themselves and others a lot of grief by addressing the challenge of stopping pro-Beijing espionage in Canada by some of its 2 million Chinese-Canadian citizens.

www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com
June 23, 2025 at 3:44 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Its vital to wargame out scenarios to measure escalation. Civilian leaders often entertain the wrong path mistakenly believing that since nuclear weapons are "unusable," they therefore will never be used, and its safe to swagger at the precipice.

moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/20/i...
Israel sees Victory in Tempting Iran to Escalate Against the U.S.
Israel’s likely strategy is to either provoke Iran to provoke a U.S. intervention, or to indirectly overthrow the regime.
moderndiplomacy.eu
June 20, 2025 at 5:56 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
This is my China-Taiwan nuclear crisis class simulations I use to generate a Monte Carlo counter of nuclear escalation in a multi-polar concept:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQVH...
China Grand Strategy Simulation Briefing 2025 2035 2080
YouTube video by Julian Spencer-Churchill
www.youtube.com
June 18, 2025 at 11:12 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
This is my North Korea nuclear crisis class simulations I use to generate a Monte Carlo counter of nuclear escalation in a multi-polar concept:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDuh...
North Korea Nuclear Crisis Simulation
YouTube video by Julian Spencer-Churchill
www.youtube.com
June 18, 2025 at 11:11 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
This is my India-Pakistan class simulation I use to generate a Monte Carlo counter of nuclear escalation in a multi-polar environment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=fo9Z...
India Pakistan Nuclear War Simulation
YouTube video by Julian Spencer-Churchill
www.youtube.com
June 18, 2025 at 11:09 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
This is my Russia-Ukraine class simulation I use to generate a Monte Carlo counter of nuclear escalation in a multi-polar environment:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=xD2B...
002 Nuclear Strategy Lecture Russia-Ukraine Nuclear Simulation IV
YouTube video by Julian Spencer-Churchill
www.youtube.com
June 18, 2025 at 11:04 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
This is the class simulation to explore nuclear and geographic escalation in an Iran-Israel conflict over 20 years ago, based on the Harpoon V Persian Incursion. It accompanies an article I wrote wargaming out the escalation.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKtO...

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...
Israel Iran Nuclear Crisis Simulation
YouTube video by Julian Spencer-Churchill
www.youtube.com
June 18, 2025 at 10:51 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
What can Canada do to deal with a threatened U.S. invasion? Please see my interview on "Clearing the Benches." The first thirty seconds of audio has a loud overlay, but the rest of the discussion between Dave Kaufman and Andrew Berkshire are very insightful and valuable.
lnkd.in/e6p7GVBp
Canadian Security & Should we build Nukes? - with Julian Spencer-Churchill
Clearing The Benches · Episode
open.spotify.com
June 16, 2025 at 5:16 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Entrepreneurialism and innovation are what Ottawa needs to nurture in order to deflect American interest in annexing Canada. Deterrence through nukes, conscripts, insurgents, and even European allies, can't save Canada.
moderndiplomacy.eu/2025/06/15/o...
Only a Morally Superior Canada Can Deter Annexation by Washington
Donald Trump’s jest about annexing Canada had the effect of galvanizing Canadian patriotism and driving an unlikely Liberal Party win
moderndiplomacy.eu
June 15, 2025 at 9:39 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
I used the metric of equivalent-VLS as measures of attack and defense surges in naval combat, with the underlying assumption of the factor of saturation. I found, that the US Navy had remained static while China's PLAN had increased its VLS-e by 50 percent.

warontherocks.com/2025/05/the-...
The Value of an Asian Tinder Box - War on the Rocks
In 2021, Julian Spencer-Churchill wrote “Embrace the Arms Race in Asia,” where he argued that an arms race in Asia was a constructive dynamic that would
warontherocks.com
May 22, 2025 at 2:28 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
The U.S. Navy is falling behind China's PLAN in the number of VLS-equivalents, which is a critical measure of missile surge capacity needed both to sink and protect fleets. Since 2021, China has increased e-VLS by 50% to 6,712, and the USN has shrunk.
www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
The U.S. Is Falling Behind in an Arms Race That May Not Exist
Despite Communist Chinese warning of the dangers of arms racing that I explored in a 2021 article, I have since come to the conclusion that the current Asian naval buildup does not match the instabili
www.realcleardefense.com
May 21, 2025 at 1:53 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
One of Washington's wisest long-term foreign policy engagements is with the security and survival of the democracy of Pakistan. Few countries are so poorly understood and frequently mischaracterized by those who have never set foot there.

www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com
May 17, 2025 at 1:17 AM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Canada is burdened by politicians hyper-specialized to win elections. Canadian leaders foster an immature strategic defense culture that often lacks proportionality and good judgment, and this insecurity spills out in public debates.

policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/ma...
Bombs away: A Canadian nuclear weapons program to deter Trump is not feasible
Canada could build nuclear weapons, but doing so would undermine its security, freedoms and alliances.
policyoptions.irpp.org
May 16, 2025 at 2:55 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
These are my recommended books for strategic studies students:

shepherd.com/best-books/n...

shepherd.com/bboy/2023/f/...

shepherd.com/best-books/s...
The best books on national security decision-making
Julian Schofield shares the 5 best books on national security decision-making. Have you read Bodyguard of Lies?
shepherd.com
May 12, 2025 at 11:29 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
The Trump administration's strategy of divide and conquer in anticipation of a conflict over Taiwan is proceeding apace, with trade distractions applied to China, offers of peace focusing Moscow on European diplomacy, and the successful isolation of Iran.

www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com
May 6, 2025 at 12:24 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Great interview by Col. John Mills of America Out Loud News on the security implications of the Canadian elections at the end of April.

www.americaoutloud.news/explaining-c...
Explaining Canada to the American audience
Canada and the United States have had a long and close relationship, but oftentimes the nature of America’s neighbor has not been fully understood by...
www.americaoutloud.news
May 2, 2025 at 4:39 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
See my and Nasir Mehmood's (National Defence University) piece on arms control related to the 2022 BrahMos launch into Pakistan. Thanks to our two very helpful anonymous reviewers.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Accidental/Inadvertent Indian Missile Launch and Procedural Arms Control in South Asia
Arms control sceptics claim that arms control is either impossible in hostile rivalries or unnecessary in confrontations where disputes are being resolved. We propose five arms control measures, in...
www.tandfonline.com
April 28, 2025 at 2:31 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
It will be curious to see whether the new Canadian government will avoid its collective security and defense responsibilities by "hiding" military assets in Canada's arctic against an imaginary adversary (Chinese, Iranian and Russian amphibious armies).

www.realcleardefense.com/articles/202...
www.realcleardefense.com
April 24, 2025 at 1:17 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social
Anthony Cave Brown's Bodyguard of Lies described the deception ops for D-DAY, The first step in ID-ing a Chicom deception op over Taiwan is fixing c-intel, through which most disinfo is passed.
nationalinterest.org/feature/japa...
Japan: A Weak Link?
As America’s most important Asian ally, Japan must improve its anti-espionage capabilities.
nationalinterest.org
April 20, 2025 at 1:16 PM
julian-churchill.bsky.social

Risking U.S. CVNs to block a Chinese amphibious attack on Taiwan may be justified until the USAF is ready to fly out of Luzon. But stationing CVNs anywhere near the Asian littoral to enforce a many years' long blockade, is negligent.

nationalinterest.org/feature/indo...
Indonesia And Taiwan’s Defense
The archipelagic nation would be critical for blockading China in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. However, Jakarta is wary of complete alignment with the United States.
nationalinterest.org
December 23, 2024 at 10:55 PM