Joost van der Leij
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joostvanderleij.bsky.social
Joost van der Leij
@joostvanderleij.bsky.social
Philosopher applying Bayesianism to football (see: http://linktr.ee/joostvanderleij) DM open for requests! Also if you want to use our AI agent for scouting.
Viktor Gyökeres is a very good CF and has even improved over his 22/23 performance with maxed out finishing probability and high passing game probability.

Replacement value for Sporting = €24,436,600.
May 23, 2025 at 6:12 AM
Matheus Gonçalves still is a subpar winger. The biggest difference with the 2022 and 2023 data is that his finishing is slightly better and his passing game is a bit worse. Nevertheless, the replacement value for Flamengo = €6,214,472. So this still makes him undervalued.
May 20, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Here is the recording of the #Eurovision techno festival with lots of lyrics, singing and euro tunes, but then with a techno beat!

Go here: www.mixcloud.com/joostvanderl...
May 17, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Sem Steijn is going to join Gijs Smal at Feyenoord next season. I promoted both players at FC Twente. I liked Gijs Smal, but I loved Sem Steijn when was still he playing at ADO. So good to see that Feyenoord pays a 10M transfer fee for this fantastic player.
May 1, 2025 at 9:04 PM
FC Volendam has won the Dutch tier #2. In 20/20 hindsight some people call this an easy win that was to be expected. But reality is that this was a hard won win.

So a lot of praise for Rick Kruys and Patrick Busby for pulling this off. Proud to have been able to add a sliver of support.
April 29, 2025 at 9:46 AM
Ege Tıknaz is a superstar DM in Portugal! With very high defending probability combined with high finishing probability and more than decent passing game probability. Replacement value for Rio Ave = €7,854,523.
April 27, 2025 at 2:26 PM
Sondre Ørjasæter is a very good winger in Norway, almost superstar level. He has very high passing game probability and high defending probability and decent finishing probability.

Replacement value for Sarpsborg 08 = €6,672,561. So he is slightly undervalued.
April 22, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Nökkvi Thórisson is a subpar winger with okayish defending probability and a bit of passing game probability, but low finishing probability (yes I know he just scored twice as a striker, maybe that is a better role for him in the future, but statistically it is still unlikely).
April 22, 2025 at 11:28 AM
Keny Arroyo is a superstar teenager winger! Based on his youth performance he is a superstar with very high passing game probability and high defending probability and decent finishing probability. He also has decent creativity.
April 22, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Reminder that there is yet another Football Behavior Management course in July this year at the VU-university of Amsterdam => vu.nl/en/education...
February 7, 2025 at 5:16 PM
For the last couple of weeks I have tried many different hashtag#AI solutions for answering my mails. None worked. So in the end I build my own hashtag#AI agent for answering my mails using our own AIBM platform.
January 19, 2025 at 2:06 PM
At the end of last year I had the honor to actually model my first professional football club using the Viable System Model (VSM). That is why the VSM is part of the FBM course at the VU-university => vu.nl/en/education...

You can read all about it here: managementcybernetics.nl/voetbal
January 9, 2025 at 1:19 PM
Shuto Machino is doing very well at Holstein_Kiel with maxed out finishing probability. That is especially good given the weakness of the team in the Bundesliga.

Shuto Machino is doing much better than expected based on the Japanese data we looked at earlier. Now he is deadly efficient.
January 3, 2025 at 11:27 PM
Luiz Araújo is showing the same kind of FBM stat profile playing for Flamengo as he did before. Very high passing game probability and high defending probability. BUT also very low finishing probability.

Replacement value for Flamengo = €4,976,703. So he is a bit undervalued nowadays.
January 3, 2025 at 11:27 PM
DM request: Christian Ordóñez is an above average defensive CM with good defending probability and decent passing game probability. He is also quite creative which is a rare combination.

Replacement value for Vélez Sarsfield = €2,164,868.
December 24, 2024 at 11:01 PM
Spent the entire day modeling a professional football organization (BVO) using the Viable System Model (VSM). In essence:

If an organization is still using a traditional organizational chart, it can immediately be optimized by replacing that chart with the Viable System Model.
December 6, 2024 at 3:38 PM
OPTA has a fancier graphic, but only 72% correlation with the actual table. FBM stats outperform OPTA with 80% correlation. Which is a big deal because 80% correlation is the minimum for good data and correlation is non-linear so 8% more correlation is a lot more correlation.
November 23, 2024 at 5:20 PM
Current standing of the Dutch KKD Eerste Divisie tier #2 as it should be according to FBM stats. 80.1% correlation with the real table, so FBM stats is a good explanation of the current order.
Only the future will tell whether or not reality adapts to the model or vice versa.
November 23, 2024 at 12:15 PM