John Roberts
@johnactuary.bsky.social
Worn out and retired actuary after 40 years in the profession.
Anyone still interested in mortality trends? The latest age standardised update from CMI show that 2025 continues to trend well below 2024, currently around 1.6% of a full year's mortality lower. So barring a sudden and very severe flu season, we should comfortably end the year with a new low.
November 13, 2025 at 8:50 AM
Anyone still interested in mortality trends? The latest age standardised update from CMI show that 2025 continues to trend well below 2024, currently around 1.6% of a full year's mortality lower. So barring a sudden and very severe flu season, we should comfortably end the year with a new low.
I guess the question is Steve, for how much longer is it appropriate to keep increasing the SP above both earnings and prices, given the huge cost and impact on generational inequity?
September 18, 2025 at 9:35 AM
I guess the question is Steve, for how much longer is it appropriate to keep increasing the SP above both earnings and prices, given the huge cost and impact on generational inequity?
Good morning from Bristol!
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
August 10, 2025 at 7:54 AM
Good morning from Bristol!
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
Just a few of the balloons on this morning’s spectacular 6am ascent. #BalloonFiesta
It’s not obvious to me that the reduction is any more than the long term trend (excl the COVID years) would have suggested. Or am I missing something?
May 21, 2025 at 3:08 PM
It’s not obvious to me that the reduction is any more than the long term trend (excl the COVID years) would have suggested. Or am I missing something?
Blimey. Greek inflation must be steep….
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
May 4, 2025 at 2:56 PM
Blimey. Greek inflation must be steep….
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
2.30pm ↙️ 5.15pm. ↘️
I've only got three years to look at, but my perception that it's been a remarkably fine early Spring is certainly borne out by my solar generation - up a third on the average of 23/24.
April 30, 2025 at 8:25 PM
I've only got three years to look at, but my perception that it's been a remarkably fine early Spring is certainly borne out by my solar generation - up a third on the average of 23/24.
No, but there is a recording of Rodrigo’s Guitar Concierto de Aranjuez by John Williams which has no comparison imo.
April 29, 2025 at 2:49 PM
No, but there is a recording of Rodrigo’s Guitar Concierto de Aranjuez by John Williams which has no comparison imo.
Just back from 17 days in Vietnam and Cambodia and amongst the highlights were sunrise at Angkor Wat, a week cruising the Mekong, and Ha Long Bay.
February 8, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Just back from 17 days in Vietnam and Cambodia and amongst the highlights were sunrise at Angkor Wat, a week cruising the Mekong, and Ha Long Bay.
I don't think the statement hat in normal times earnings should rise faster than CPI or 2.5%. The evidence suggests the contrary.
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
January 17, 2025 at 2:25 PM
I don't think the statement hat in normal times earnings should rise faster than CPI or 2.5%. The evidence suggests the contrary.
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
I disagree with the comment that in normal times wages should rise faster than 2.5% or CPI. The evidence just doesn't support that.
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
January 17, 2025 at 2:21 PM
I disagree with the comment that in normal times wages should rise faster than 2.5% or CPI. The evidence just doesn't support that.
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CB...
Cape Town, 🇿🇦 last month.
December 12, 2024 at 9:56 PM
Cape Town, 🇿🇦 last month.
Clickbait buzzword #94. "Tiny".
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
December 9, 2024 at 2:02 PM
Clickbait buzzword #94. "Tiny".
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
As used here in relation to Bristol Airport, which has c10m passengers a year.
I wonder where they are all stored….
December 4, 2024 at 5:47 PM
I wonder where they are all stored….
Azeem commented on the old site that he gets no engagement here. Can someone add him to a list that will alert people to the fact that he is now on the friendly no bot no porn site?
December 4, 2024 at 5:08 PM
Azeem commented on the old site that he gets no engagement here. Can someone add him to a list that will alert people to the fact that he is now on the friendly no bot no porn site?
A great juxtaposition of posts from you know where which perfectly demonstrate why so many are now using this place more than the other (including me).
November 18, 2024 at 5:19 PM
A great juxtaposition of posts from you know where which perfectly demonstrate why so many are now using this place more than the other (including me).
Because this came through on my feed and I didn’t realise it was a reply.
November 13, 2024 at 9:17 PM
Because this came through on my feed and I didn’t realise it was a reply.
But as ActuarybyDay notes here, just being as good as 5 years previously isn't really any great shakes - in pre-pandemic times it would be quite unusual, given rapid mortality improvements we've seen over many years.
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November 13, 2024 at 3:46 PM
But as ActuarybyDay notes here, just being as good as 5 years previously isn't really any great shakes - in pre-pandemic times it would be quite unusual, given rapid mortality improvements we've seen over many years.
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I'm wondering how significant the "continuing trend" is. Most of the fall was in the two weeks highlighted here. Which as you say would result in a one off step change, as you might expect. Since then any variation doesn't appear out of line with the volatility we saw before the change.
November 13, 2024 at 2:20 PM
I'm wondering how significant the "continuing trend" is. Most of the fall was in the two weeks highlighted here. Which as you say would result in a one off step change, as you might expect. Since then any variation doesn't appear out of line with the volatility we saw before the change.
An early morning boat ride, and I’m now marooned for the next 12 hours…#Steepholm
October 7, 2024 at 9:00 AM
An early morning boat ride, and I’m now marooned for the next 12 hours…#Steepholm
In 2019 we started walking Offa’s Dyke footpath, and yesterday finished at Prestatyn Beach, 177 miles from the start near Chepstow. A fantastic adventure, with some beautiful scenery on the way. Highly recommended!
October 5, 2024 at 8:05 AM
In 2019 we started walking Offa’s Dyke footpath, and yesterday finished at Prestatyn Beach, 177 miles from the start near Chepstow. A fantastic adventure, with some beautiful scenery on the way. Highly recommended!
Indeed, and unlike the insurance market you don’t need to worry about health, where you live etc. that will influence the cost.
It just starts getting paid at state retirement age (unless you decide to defer it.)
It just starts getting paid at state retirement age (unless you decide to defer it.)
September 14, 2024 at 7:24 AM
Indeed, and unlike the insurance market you don’t need to worry about health, where you live etc. that will influence the cost.
It just starts getting paid at state retirement age (unless you decide to defer it.)
It just starts getting paid at state retirement age (unless you decide to defer it.)
Without understating the alleged crime here, I really don’t understand why a relatively minor celebrity’s prosecution is more important than major world events.
September 13, 2024 at 6:31 PM
Without understating the alleged crime here, I really don’t understand why a relatively minor celebrity’s prosecution is more important than major world events.
Why is increasing the TL over both prices and earnings a problem? Over time, it will burden then current taxpayers with an ever increasing cost as a proportion of GDP.
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September 10, 2024 at 7:52 PM
Why is increasing the TL over both prices and earnings a problem? Over time, it will burden then current taxpayers with an ever increasing cost as a proportion of GDP.
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Here we see how the link to price increases only in the 80s eroded the state pension in relation to earnings, but has since recovered to some extent since the TL was introduced. (Note that the lower (pre 16) SP is often accompanied by second state pension income.)
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September 10, 2024 at 7:51 PM
Here we see how the link to price increases only in the 80s eroded the state pension in relation to earnings, but has since recovered to some extent since the TL was introduced. (Note that the lower (pre 16) SP is often accompanied by second state pension income.)
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Even before next year's increase, this table shows how the cherry-picking aspect of the #TripleLock means the BSP inevitably increases faster than both prices and earnings over time.
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September 10, 2024 at 7:50 PM
Even before next year's increase, this table shows how the cherry-picking aspect of the #TripleLock means the BSP inevitably increases faster than both prices and earnings over time.
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