Joe Twyman
@joetwyman.bsky.social
Co-founder of the public opinion consultancy Deltapoll.
Your regular reminder that a significant change in power is not necessarily the same as a significant change in public opinion.
Comparing the relation between the presidential election results in 2020 and 2024 with the post-election commentary is a fascinating exercise.
2020
Biden 81,283,501 popular votes, 51.3%
Trump 74,223,975 popular votes 46.8%
2024
Trump 77,302,580 49.8%
Harris 75,017,613. 48.3%
2020
Biden 81,283,501 popular votes, 51.3%
Trump 74,223,975 popular votes 46.8%
2024
Trump 77,302,580 49.8%
Harris 75,017,613. 48.3%
November 2, 2025 at 8:23 AM
Your regular reminder that a significant change in power is not necessarily the same as a significant change in public opinion.
It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
October 24, 2025 at 9:34 AM
It is tempting to over-analyse the result in Caerphilly, but one thing it does demonstrate is the potential power of tactical voting.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
That is something very difficult for polling to take account of at any stage, but particularly more than three years out from a general election.
I say this not as any sort of political point, but simply because I think accuracy is important.
I have visited all over Britain, been fortunate to travel all over the world and have worked in a number of countries across the Middle East.
I have never seen anyone wearing a burqua. Not once.
I have visited all over Britain, been fortunate to travel all over the world and have worked in a number of countries across the Middle East.
I have never seen anyone wearing a burqua. Not once.
October 21, 2025 at 2:41 PM
I say this not as any sort of political point, but simply because I think accuracy is important.
I have visited all over Britain, been fortunate to travel all over the world and have worked in a number of countries across the Middle East.
I have never seen anyone wearing a burqua. Not once.
I have visited all over Britain, been fortunate to travel all over the world and have worked in a number of countries across the Middle East.
I have never seen anyone wearing a burqua. Not once.
Apropos of nothing, just a quick reminder on the popularity of policies.....
October 3, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Apropos of nothing, just a quick reminder on the popularity of policies.....
Which politicians can the British public actually name? In honour of party conference season Deltapoll has produced a league table of leading political figures - and at the top comes Keir Starmer. More than three quarters could correctly name him.
September 30, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Which politicians can the British public actually name? In honour of party conference season Deltapoll has produced a league table of leading political figures - and at the top comes Keir Starmer. More than three quarters could correctly name him.
An interesting historical counter factual to consider is what would have happened if Tony Blair, while riding high in the polls during his first term, had forced through a national ID card scheme in the late 1990s?
September 26, 2025 at 2:27 PM
An interesting historical counter factual to consider is what would have happened if Tony Blair, while riding high in the polls during his first term, had forced through a national ID card scheme in the late 1990s?
Reposted by Joe Twyman
There are figures for “detected” arrivals (ie the massive majority of small boats), but none for undetected. Even if we assume that only half of such arrivals are detected, they would still be less than 10% of the total.
It is, in fact, a non-problem.
It is, in fact, a non-problem.
September 26, 2025 at 10:46 AM
There are figures for “detected” arrivals (ie the massive majority of small boats), but none for undetected. Even if we assume that only half of such arrivals are detected, they would still be less than 10% of the total.
It is, in fact, a non-problem.
It is, in fact, a non-problem.
Nearly half of British adults believe a majority of immigrants to this country in the last year came here illegally.
Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.
Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.
September 26, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Nearly half of British adults believe a majority of immigrants to this country in the last year came here illegally.
Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.
Just under a third (32%) believe the majority came here legally and a further one in five (20%) don't know.
I would just like to make it clear that if you do have extensive experience in coding SPSS Syntax - and particularly SPSS Script - over here at Deltapoll, I am always interested in hearing from you.
Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.
Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.
Peter Kyle frantically wondering why Britain's legion of HTML 3.0 and SPSS coders can't get jobs
September 19, 2025 at 11:53 AM
I would just like to make it clear that if you do have extensive experience in coding SPSS Syntax - and particularly SPSS Script - over here at Deltapoll, I am always interested in hearing from you.
Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.
Even if it's just to cheerfully reminisce.
Just a reminder, in case it was needed, that there is a WORLD OF DIFFERENCE between a theoretical new party gaining X% share of the vote in a hypothetical poll and it actually going on to achieve that level of support.
And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.
And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.
September 18, 2025 at 2:15 PM
Just a reminder, in case it was needed, that there is a WORLD OF DIFFERENCE between a theoretical new party gaining X% share of the vote in a hypothetical poll and it actually going on to achieve that level of support.
And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.
And I say that as the official pollster for Change UK.
RIP Robert Redford.
And if you haven't seen 'Three Days of the Condor', it takes an approach to this question which has held up . . . . . er . . . . less well.
And if you haven't seen 'Three Days of the Condor', it takes an approach to this question which has held up . . . . . er . . . . less well.
I can't remember the details, and can't find them now, for my favorite Robert Redford anecdote, but: When Indecent Proposal was being discussed, someone asked a film critic if she would sleep with Robert Redford for $1 million, and she replied, "Yes, but where would I get the money?"
September 16, 2025 at 2:23 PM
RIP Robert Redford.
And if you haven't seen 'Three Days of the Condor', it takes an approach to this question which has held up . . . . . er . . . . less well.
And if you haven't seen 'Three Days of the Condor', it takes an approach to this question which has held up . . . . . er . . . . less well.
Reposted by Joe Twyman
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
September 16, 2025 at 10:25 AM
🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴♂️🚴♂️🚴♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...
Big fan of Reddit's political analysis in the context of football broadcasting.
September 3, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Big fan of Reddit's political analysis in the context of football broadcasting.
BREAKING: No lanyard sponsor for this year's Conservative Party Conference.
September 2, 2025 at 5:40 PM
BREAKING: No lanyard sponsor for this year's Conservative Party Conference.
Disappointed that the time I nearly ran him over after he walked into the road without looking is not listed.
www.theguardian.com/film/2025/au...
www.theguardian.com/film/2025/au...
The strangest David Lynch facts – ranked!
Ahead of a new biography of the late director (whose favourite number was seven), we rundown some of the most offbeat things about this most mysterious modern genius
www.theguardian.com
August 21, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Disappointed that the time I nearly ran him over after he walked into the road without looking is not listed.
www.theguardian.com/film/2025/au...
www.theguardian.com/film/2025/au...
Back in the pre-Windows 95 days, and after getting Trumpet Winsock (finally) configured correctly, hearing this sound felt like you were opening a portal to the future.
The great thing about the dial-up noise was it really felt like the Internet was trying its hardest for you.
August 8, 2025 at 6:32 PM
Back in the pre-Windows 95 days, and after getting Trumpet Winsock (finally) configured correctly, hearing this sound felt like you were opening a portal to the future.
What did Keir Starmer’s dad do for work?
Although it was frequently mentioned (some suggested to the point of parody) during the election campaign, Deltapoll found fewer than one in five British adults could correctly identify that the Prime Minister’s father was a tool maker.
Although it was frequently mentioned (some suggested to the point of parody) during the election campaign, Deltapoll found fewer than one in five British adults could correctly identify that the Prime Minister’s father was a tool maker.
August 7, 2025 at 9:04 AM
What did Keir Starmer’s dad do for work?
Although it was frequently mentioned (some suggested to the point of parody) during the election campaign, Deltapoll found fewer than one in five British adults could correctly identify that the Prime Minister’s father was a tool maker.
Although it was frequently mentioned (some suggested to the point of parody) during the election campaign, Deltapoll found fewer than one in five British adults could correctly identify that the Prime Minister’s father was a tool maker.
A happiest of birthdays to @lukemcgee.bsky.social and Terry Wogan. Let's see which one of us makes it into Playbook this year.
August 3, 2025 at 10:16 AM
A happiest of birthdays to @lukemcgee.bsky.social and Terry Wogan. Let's see which one of us makes it into Playbook this year.
Reposted by Joe Twyman
think this is sort of interesting as actually.....no you probably didn't need to do "more research" into it? you just had to trust the state and local authorities to know better than you when it came to vaccinating your child? not good that the internet has killed faith in institutions!
July 28, 2025 at 8:09 AM
think this is sort of interesting as actually.....no you probably didn't need to do "more research" into it? you just had to trust the state and local authorities to know better than you when it came to vaccinating your child? not good that the internet has killed faith in institutions!
Immigrants. They get the job done.
July 27, 2025 at 6:46 PM
Immigrants. They get the job done.
Fewer than a third of British adults say that Donald Trump should be invited to address the Houses of Parliament during the US President's state visit to the UK.
This compares to more than half (56%) who believe he should not be invited.
This compares to more than half (56%) who believe he should not be invited.
July 21, 2025 at 2:11 PM
Fewer than a third of British adults say that Donald Trump should be invited to address the Houses of Parliament during the US President's state visit to the UK.
This compares to more than half (56%) who believe he should not be invited.
This compares to more than half (56%) who believe he should not be invited.
Missed this the first time around, but really enjoyed it.
With bonus points for references to Bakshi.
With bonus points for references to Bakshi.
Shamelessly leaping on this to promote my Life and Arts essay on Tolkien’s legacy from a few years back. As I said then, Martin is ultimately being defeated by distance:
July 21, 2025 at 10:56 AM
Missed this the first time around, but really enjoyed it.
With bonus points for references to Bakshi.
With bonus points for references to Bakshi.
Your regular reminder that headlines saying "Poll shows this specific policy will cost this party this number of seats at the next election" have an appalling track record when compared to reality.
As has been seen time and again, voting is far, far more complicated than that.
As has been seen time and again, voting is far, far more complicated than that.
July 21, 2025 at 9:54 AM
Your regular reminder that headlines saying "Poll shows this specific policy will cost this party this number of seats at the next election" have an appalling track record when compared to reality.
As has been seen time and again, voting is far, far more complicated than that.
As has been seen time and again, voting is far, far more complicated than that.
Should Donald Trump have been invited to address the Houses of Parliament during his state visit? We have an exclusive from Deltapoll on what this British public think in @theipaper.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
Why Farage and Badenoch risk turning off voters over Trump visit
Exclusive new polling reveals most voters disagree with Reform and Tory leaders and do not want the US President to address Parliament
inews.co.uk
July 17, 2025 at 9:06 AM
Should Donald Trump have been invited to address the Houses of Parliament during his state visit? We have an exclusive from Deltapoll on what this British public think in @theipaper.
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
inews.co.uk/news/politic...
It might be fun to ask basically anyone who is not English if the English are allowed to mention that England won the world cup.
Rupert Lowe tweets at his anger that we are simply never allowed to ever mention that this country won the World Wars - nor England's 1966 World Cup. [How did we let those become unknown, untold stories, whose anniversaries just slip by - unnoticed, verboten - in politics. media & broader society?
July 11, 2025 at 9:09 AM
It might be fun to ask basically anyone who is not English if the English are allowed to mention that England won the world cup.