João Sousa
@joaosousa.bsky.social
Deputy Director of @fraserofallander.org at the University of Strathclyde, formerly at the OBR. Mostly economic and fiscal policy, plus the odd rugby and football post. Views are my own, shares are not endorsements. He/him
Reposted by João Sousa
Our view - the £22bn headroom is a fiscal fiction. Allowing for fuel duty freezes and discounting non-credible spending cuts, it's more like £15bn - so not much higher than before, and not enough for normal forecast uncertainty
So much briefing inevitably leads to a Budget that did not have many surprises. But what's the real story behind the spin? Read our initial reaction, and keep checking back over the course of the afternoon and evening for further analysis:
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
fraserofallander.org/budget-2025-...
Budget 2025 reaction: meeting the (briefed) expectations | FAI
*Please note that this blog will be updated over the course of the afternoon and evening. Check back for further analysis*
fraserofallander.org
November 26, 2025 at 3:41 PM
Our view - the £22bn headroom is a fiscal fiction. Allowing for fuel duty freezes and discounting non-credible spending cuts, it's more like £15bn - so not much higher than before, and not enough for normal forecast uncertainty
My view on the two-forecast situation: it's not a time-consistent equilibrium to say there won't be policy accompanying a forecast. With Britain's institutions, the only way to reduce tinkering is to cut fiscal forecasts to one a year
www.ft.com/content/921d...
www.ft.com/content/921d...
Letter: Here’s how the British economy reduces fiscal volatility
From João Sousa, Deputy Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute, University of Strathclyde; Former Senior Fiscal Analyst, Office for Budget Responsibility, Glasgow, UK
www.ft.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:56 PM
My view on the two-forecast situation: it's not a time-consistent equilibrium to say there won't be policy accompanying a forecast. With Britain's institutions, the only way to reduce tinkering is to cut fiscal forecasts to one a year
www.ft.com/content/921d...
www.ft.com/content/921d...
Reposted by João Sousa
As the Chancellor reaches for the smorgasbord option on taxes, why is she in such a pickle? And is her planned headroom enough to avoid coming back next year for more?
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
UK Budget Preview #3: Eyeing up a smorgasbord | FAI
The UK Budget is still more than a week away, but it feels very long in the tooth already…
fraserofallander.org
November 18, 2025 at 7:17 PM
As the Chancellor reaches for the smorgasbord option on taxes, why is she in such a pickle? And is her planned headroom enough to avoid coming back next year for more?
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
Read our latest Budget preview below:
fraserofallander.org/uk-budget-pr...
Reposted by João Sousa
This is clever briefing but not actually how OBR forecasts work.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
The UK government ditched plans to raise income tax rates after an improved fiscal forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility, according to people familiar with the matter.
Follow our live blog for the latest: on.ft.com/4pc7LC1
Follow our live blog for the latest: on.ft.com/4pc7LC1
November 14, 2025 at 11:52 AM
This is clever briefing but not actually how OBR forecasts work.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
The last pre-measures forecast, where this could have been true - was 31 Oct, 5 days before Chancellor's speech. Market determinants were also taken a month ago.
This suggest pulling back was the plan all along.
Reposted by João Sousa
What better way to round off our conference than with a look ahead to the 2026 Holyrood election with Professor Sir John Curtice? #FAI50
September 19, 2025 at 1:37 PM
What better way to round off our conference than with a look ahead to the 2026 Holyrood election with Professor Sir John Curtice? #FAI50
A really interesting piece from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - highlighting, as we have discussed at @fraserofallander.org as well, that the real crux of the issue is the looseness of the fiscal stance and inadequate buffer that makes every tiny shock enough to derail policy
shorturl.at/uDy1a
shorturl.at/uDy1a
September 18, 2025 at 9:08 AM
A really interesting piece from @instituteforgovernment.org.uk - highlighting, as we have discussed at @fraserofallander.org as well, that the real crux of the issue is the looseness of the fiscal stance and inadequate buffer that makes every tiny shock enough to derail policy
shorturl.at/uDy1a
shorturl.at/uDy1a
Reposted by João Sousa
If you think the attack on the Fed's Lisa Cook has nothing to do with you, you're wrong — any one of us may be next paulkrugman.substack.com/p/we-are-all...
We Are All Lisa Cook
Nobody is safe from weaponized government
paulkrugman.substack.com
August 25, 2025 at 12:49 PM
If you think the attack on the Fed's Lisa Cook has nothing to do with you, you're wrong — any one of us may be next paulkrugman.substack.com/p/we-are-all...
UK fiscal issues aren't solved by ignoring poor productivity data or abolishing the OBR. Productivity growth has been averaging 0.5% a year. PSNB/GDP has averaged 4.8% since 2000-01, and 5.9% since 08-09.
This screams fiscal policy that's too loose, and policy and politicians must reckon with that
This screams fiscal policy that's too loose, and policy and politicians must reckon with that
In this week's update, we look at the Chancellor's predicament; why it is time the OBR reflected poor productivity data in its assumptions; and why calls to scrap the OBR fail to address the issue of UK fiscal policy being likely too loose for too long. Read below:
buff.ly/A2W3W5i
buff.ly/A2W3W5i
Unpleasant fiscal arithmetic has nothing to do with the OBR | FAI
Imagine you’re heading out for a walk. You really want it to be dry, but your weather forecast app says it’s more likely than not that it will rain. You chance it…
fraserofallander.org
August 22, 2025 at 2:34 PM
UK fiscal issues aren't solved by ignoring poor productivity data or abolishing the OBR. Productivity growth has been averaging 0.5% a year. PSNB/GDP has averaged 4.8% since 2000-01, and 5.9% since 08-09.
This screams fiscal policy that's too loose, and policy and politicians must reckon with that
This screams fiscal policy that's too loose, and policy and politicians must reckon with that
Reposted by João Sousa
🚨 We're delighted to announce our (near) final programme for our Economic and Social Policy Conference on the 18th and 19th September, including a new live conference page on our site.
Read more: buff.ly/OK8xjug
Read more: buff.ly/OK8xjug
The Fraser of Allander Institute Economic and Social Policy Conference 2025 | FAI
A few weeks ago, we announced our exciting plans to celebrate the Fraser of Allander’s 50th anniversary. As part of this, we were thrilled to announce that we are hosting our first economic and…
fraserofallander.org
August 15, 2025 at 9:17 AM
🚨 We're delighted to announce our (near) final programme for our Economic and Social Policy Conference on the 18th and 19th September, including a new live conference page on our site.
Read more: buff.ly/OK8xjug
Read more: buff.ly/OK8xjug
Reposted by João Sousa
This chart shows the decomposition of the change in the notional deficit from 2023-24 to 2024-25 - devolved spending is clearly the largest factor. Even if devolved revenues grew faster in percentage terms, devolved spending is just much larger a share of the economy
August 13, 2025 at 10:38 AM
This chart shows the decomposition of the change in the notional deficit from 2023-24 to 2024-25 - devolved spending is clearly the largest factor. Even if devolved revenues grew faster in percentage terms, devolved spending is just much larger a share of the economy
Reposted by João Sousa
Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.
It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.
It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.
August 1, 2025 at 8:54 PM
Firing the BLS Commissioner — the wonk in charge of the statisticians who track economic reality — is an authoritarian four alarm fire.
It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.
It will also backfire: You can't bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.
Reposted by João Sousa
Reposted by João Sousa
3/ A much more insightful – though perhaps less cheery – conclusion from looking at the SFC’s forecast is that by 2028-29, funding will be £0.7 billion lower than their central estimate published on 29 May
June 11, 2025 at 3:56 PM
3/ A much more insightful – though perhaps less cheery – conclusion from looking at the SFC’s forecast is that by 2028-29, funding will be £0.7 billion lower than their central estimate published on 29 May
Reposted by João Sousa
2/ It essentially assumes that no additional funding would have been made available for the Scottish Government in cash terms relative to that in 2025-26 – which is not a credible baseline
June 11, 2025 at 3:56 PM
2/ It essentially assumes that no additional funding would have been made available for the Scottish Government in cash terms relative to that in 2025-26 – which is not a credible baseline
Reposted by João Sousa
1/ We have seen Labour MPs and MSPs describing the SR event as increasing the block grant by £9.1 billion over the SR period. While Barnett consequentials add up to this, it's a figure that is neither transparent nor helpful
The SR looks like a rollercoaster ride for public services. Boosts short-term, real-terms cuts in resource and capital in the medium-term; health and defence the main winners. ScotGov budget also grows by less than @scotfisccomm.bsky.social thought 2 weeks ago:
fraserofallander.org/2025-spendin...
fraserofallander.org/2025-spendin...
2025 Spending Review: a rollercoaster ride | FAI
Earlier today, Rachel Reeves announced in the House of Commons the outcome of the Spending Review for both resource and capital budgets across…
fraserofallander.org
June 11, 2025 at 3:56 PM
1/ We have seen Labour MPs and MSPs describing the SR event as increasing the block grant by £9.1 billion over the SR period. While Barnett consequentials add up to this, it's a figure that is neither transparent nor helpful
Reposted by João Sousa
The SR looks like a rollercoaster ride for public services. Boosts short-term, real-terms cuts in resource and capital in the medium-term; health and defence the main winners. ScotGov budget also grows by less than @scotfisccomm.bsky.social thought 2 weeks ago:
fraserofallander.org/2025-spendin...
fraserofallander.org/2025-spendin...
2025 Spending Review: a rollercoaster ride | FAI
Earlier today, Rachel Reeves announced in the House of Commons the outcome of the Spending Review for both resource and capital budgets across…
fraserofallander.org
June 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM
The SR looks like a rollercoaster ride for public services. Boosts short-term, real-terms cuts in resource and capital in the medium-term; health and defence the main winners. ScotGov budget also grows by less than @scotfisccomm.bsky.social thought 2 weeks ago:
fraserofallander.org/2025-spendin...
fraserofallander.org/2025-spendin...
1/ As we gear up for the UK Government's main spending review, it's worth pausing and looking at how we have ended up with this slightly bizarre system of ministers settling bilaterally with the Treasury in a sort of zero-sum world where the envelope has already been set
We are less than a week away from the Spending Review - so what can we expect, and how have we ended up with this strange process? Does it work?
Read more below:
fraserofallander.org/why-do-we-ha...
Read more below:
fraserofallander.org/why-do-we-ha...
What’s the Spending Review and what can expect? | FAI
It’s less than a week until the Spending Review announcement, and rumours abound about what departments will get in funding and how it ties in with the…
fraserofallander.org
June 6, 2025 at 12:04 PM
1/ As we gear up for the UK Government's main spending review, it's worth pausing and looking at how we have ended up with this slightly bizarre system of ministers settling bilaterally with the Treasury in a sort of zero-sum world where the envelope has already been set
This is a crucial point. The two-forecast-a-year practice in the UK is a peculiarly British thing, and a remnant of the high inflation of the 1970s, when it became codified, and subsequently was put into the BRNA 2011. There's no convincing reason to do a forecast more than once a year
The point is that "one fiscal event, two forecasts" doesn't work. If the government is serious about having only one fiscal event per year - and there's a lot to be said for doing so - they should also move to having a single OBR forecast each year.
May 28, 2025 at 8:33 AM
This is a crucial point. The two-forecast-a-year practice in the UK is a peculiarly British thing, and a remnant of the high inflation of the 1970s, when it became codified, and subsequently was put into the BRNA 2011. There's no convincing reason to do a forecast more than once a year
Reposted by João Sousa
In this week's update: a flurry of announcements, from a UK-EU trade deal to public sector pay awards to winter fuel U-turns.
Read all about what they mean below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
Read all about what they mean below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
Weekly update: UK-EU deal, public sector pay and U-turns | FAI
It’s been a busy week of events and announcements. The week kicked off with an announcement on a UK-EU trade deal. Some of the details on this are…
fraserofallander.org
May 23, 2025 at 3:55 PM
In this week's update: a flurry of announcements, from a UK-EU trade deal to public sector pay awards to winter fuel U-turns.
Read all about what they mean below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
Read all about what they mean below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
Reposted by João Sousa
Brennan Johnson strikes to clinch Europa League glory for Tottenham
Brennan Johnson strikes to clinch Europa League glory for Tottenham
For Ange Postecoglou and Tottenham, there was only one story, one mission. It was not about what happens next with the manager; that can wait. It was about grasping an opportunity that does not come around very often, about emerging from what has felt like a generation’s worth of jibes; about winning.
On a golden night for their longsuffering followers, they chased the baggage from their backs, they changed the narrative. Yet again, Postecoglou won in his second season at a club. For the first time since 2008, Spurs got their hands on a trophy. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
May 21, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Brennan Johnson strikes to clinch Europa League glory for Tottenham
Reposted by João Sousa
Well I never thought I’d see the day. Tottenham Hotspur win the Europa League.
May 21, 2025 at 8:59 PM
Well I never thought I’d see the day. Tottenham Hotspur win the Europa League.
Reposted by João Sousa
In this week's update: what's driving GDP growth? And as news of a pay deal land from NHS Scotland, is the Scottish Government following its own pay policy?
Read more below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
Read more below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
Weekly update: GDP growth and Scottish pay deals | FAI
It was good news all around for Rachel Reeves yesterday, it seemed, as the ONS announced that their first estimate of GDP growth for the first quarter…
fraserofallander.org
May 16, 2025 at 2:17 PM
In this week's update: what's driving GDP growth? And as news of a pay deal land from NHS Scotland, is the Scottish Government following its own pay policy?
Read more below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...
Read more below:
fraserofallander.org/weekly-updat...