Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
@jhayron.bsky.social
Earth system scientist using AI - Ph.D. Candidate at the University of Maryland
https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~jhayron/
https://www2.atmos.umd.edu/~jhayron/
Happy to share this short course at #AMS2026 that I'll be helping with:
www.ametsoc.org/ams/educatio...
Excited to see you there!!
www.ametsoc.org/ams/educatio...
Excited to see you there!!
Intermediate Machine Learning in Python for Environmental Science Problems 2026
The AMS is a global community committed to advancing weather, water, and climate science and service.
www.ametsoc.org
November 17, 2025 at 5:44 PM
Happy to share this short course at #AMS2026 that I'll be helping with:
www.ametsoc.org/ams/educatio...
Excited to see you there!!
www.ametsoc.org/ams/educatio...
Excited to see you there!!
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
The WCRP Earth System Modelling and Observations (ESMO) Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Predictions (WGSIP) is launching a new webinar series in late 2025.
29 October 2025, 22:00 UTC — Theme: Predictability limits
More info: https://loom.ly/F-Vfj6o
#WCRP #ESMO #WGSIP
29 October 2025, 22:00 UTC — Theme: Predictability limits
More info: https://loom.ly/F-Vfj6o
#WCRP #ESMO #WGSIP
October 23, 2025 at 12:30 PM
The WCRP Earth System Modelling and Observations (ESMO) Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Predictions (WGSIP) is launching a new webinar series in late 2025.
29 October 2025, 22:00 UTC — Theme: Predictability limits
More info: https://loom.ly/F-Vfj6o
#WCRP #ESMO #WGSIP
29 October 2025, 22:00 UTC — Theme: Predictability limits
More info: https://loom.ly/F-Vfj6o
#WCRP #ESMO #WGSIP
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2025) Committed acceleration of climate stresses in the coming decades. Environmental Research: Climate, in press. doi.org/10.1088/2752...
October 21, 2025 at 3:42 PM
Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2025) Committed acceleration of climate stresses in the coming decades. Environmental Research: Climate, in press. doi.org/10.1088/2752...
Scientists Must Join Forces to Solve Forecasting’s Predictability Desert eos.org/opinions/sci...
Scientists Must Join Forces to Solve Forecasting’s Predictability Desert - Eos
To strengthen societal resilience to worsening natural hazards, siloed Earth system science communities must collaborate to understand conditions that favor skillful subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts.
eos.org
October 18, 2025 at 1:31 PM
Scientists Must Join Forces to Solve Forecasting’s Predictability Desert eos.org/opinions/sci...
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Excited to share that our new paper is out in Weather and Climate Dynamics and was selected as a highlight publication🎉
We introduce a machine-learning approach to identify physically interpretable drivers of regional precipitation extremes. Have a look here: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/9...
We introduce a machine-learning approach to identify physically interpretable drivers of regional precipitation extremes. Have a look here: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/9...
Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders
Abstract. Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme precipitation events and provide sources of predictability of these events on timescales ranging from days to decades. In ...
wcd.copernicus.org
October 13, 2025 at 4:41 PM
Excited to share that our new paper is out in Weather and Climate Dynamics and was selected as a highlight publication🎉
We introduce a machine-learning approach to identify physically interpretable drivers of regional precipitation extremes. Have a look here: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/9...
We introduce a machine-learning approach to identify physically interpretable drivers of regional precipitation extremes. Have a look here: wcd.copernicus.org/articles/6/9...
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Its worth noting that when the first modern climate models were published in 1970 it was hardly clear that there was a warming trend; if anything there had been flat or slightly cooling global temperatures for the past three decades:
September 23, 2025 at 5:07 PM
Its worth noting that when the first modern climate models were published in 1970 it was hardly clear that there was a warming trend; if anything there had been flat or slightly cooling global temperatures for the past three decades:
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
September 23, 2025 at 5:01 PM
In a UN speech today, President Trump said that "all of these [climate] predictions were wrong".
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Back in 2019 I led a research effort to digitize old climate model projections and assess how well they did. Turns out they got future warming pretty spot on!
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
🚨 Recruiting Two PhD/MS Students 🚨
I am looking to bring on at least two GRAs (M.S. or Ph.D. Level) beginning Spring or Fall 2026 to join our CHAOS research group. Research projects will be related to artificial intelligence and machine learning applications for extreme temperatures and rainfall
I am looking to bring on at least two GRAs (M.S. or Ph.D. Level) beginning Spring or Fall 2026 to join our CHAOS research group. Research projects will be related to artificial intelligence and machine learning applications for extreme temperatures and rainfall
September 8, 2025 at 4:21 PM
🚨 Recruiting Two PhD/MS Students 🚨
I am looking to bring on at least two GRAs (M.S. or Ph.D. Level) beginning Spring or Fall 2026 to join our CHAOS research group. Research projects will be related to artificial intelligence and machine learning applications for extreme temperatures and rainfall
I am looking to bring on at least two GRAs (M.S. or Ph.D. Level) beginning Spring or Fall 2026 to join our CHAOS research group. Research projects will be related to artificial intelligence and machine learning applications for extreme temperatures and rainfall
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
🌳 Deforestation and deadly heat
A new study links tropical deforestation to ~28,000 heat-related deaths each year.
Local warming from forest loss now accounts for over a third of climate heat mortality in affected regions.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#SciComm #ClimateCrisis 🧪
A new study links tropical deforestation to ~28,000 heat-related deaths each year.
Local warming from forest loss now accounts for over a third of climate heat mortality in affected regions.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#SciComm #ClimateCrisis 🧪
Tropical deforestation is associated with considerable heat-related mortality - Nature Climate Change
The authors assess the impacts of tropical deforestation and its subsequent local warming on human heat-related mortality. They estimate that deforestation-related warming (+0.27 °C) is associated wit...
www.nature.com
August 29, 2025 at 8:40 PM
🌳 Deforestation and deadly heat
A new study links tropical deforestation to ~28,000 heat-related deaths each year.
Local warming from forest loss now accounts for over a third of climate heat mortality in affected regions.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#SciComm #ClimateCrisis 🧪
A new study links tropical deforestation to ~28,000 heat-related deaths each year.
Local warming from forest loss now accounts for over a third of climate heat mortality in affected regions.
🔗 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
#SciComm #ClimateCrisis 🧪
🚨I’m excited to share that the final version of my first PhD paper is already published! With my amazing advisor, Maria Molina, we characterized the predictability of North American weather regimes.
August 19, 2025 at 9:13 PM
🚨I’m excited to share that the final version of my first PhD paper is already published! With my amazing advisor, Maria Molina, we characterized the predictability of North American weather regimes.
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Katie Dagon @ncar-ucar.bsky.social presents our next Lecture in #Climate #Data Science!
📅 THURS, 7/24/25
🕧 12:30p ET * please note time-shift this week *
📍 @columbiaseas.bsky.social Innovation Hub/Zoom
💻 RSVP: www.eventbrite.com/e/summer-202...
@climate.columbia.edu #LEAPEducation #CESM #AI
📅 THURS, 7/24/25
🕧 12:30p ET * please note time-shift this week *
📍 @columbiaseas.bsky.social Innovation Hub/Zoom
💻 RSVP: www.eventbrite.com/e/summer-202...
@climate.columbia.edu #LEAPEducation #CESM #AI
July 22, 2025 at 3:11 PM
Katie Dagon @ncar-ucar.bsky.social presents our next Lecture in #Climate #Data Science!
📅 THURS, 7/24/25
🕧 12:30p ET * please note time-shift this week *
📍 @columbiaseas.bsky.social Innovation Hub/Zoom
💻 RSVP: www.eventbrite.com/e/summer-202...
@climate.columbia.edu #LEAPEducation #CESM #AI
📅 THURS, 7/24/25
🕧 12:30p ET * please note time-shift this week *
📍 @columbiaseas.bsky.social Innovation Hub/Zoom
💻 RSVP: www.eventbrite.com/e/summer-202...
@climate.columbia.edu #LEAPEducation #CESM #AI
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Please consider submitting an abstract to the Weather Regime session that I am co-chairing at the AMS 106th Annual Meeting. 👍🏼
July 15, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Please consider submitting an abstract to the Weather Regime session that I am co-chairing at the AMS 106th Annual Meeting. 👍🏼
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
New Article: "When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis" rdcu.be/evfGV
A causality-guided explainable AI framework shows soil moisture dominates vapour pressure deficit in shaping global photosynthesis during water-limited conditions.
A causality-guided explainable AI framework shows soil moisture dominates vapour pressure deficit in shaping global photosynthesis during water-limited conditions.
July 8, 2025 at 3:34 AM
New Article: "When and where soil dryness matters to ecosystem photosynthesis" rdcu.be/evfGV
A causality-guided explainable AI framework shows soil moisture dominates vapour pressure deficit in shaping global photosynthesis during water-limited conditions.
A causality-guided explainable AI framework shows soil moisture dominates vapour pressure deficit in shaping global photosynthesis during water-limited conditions.
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Published in JGR:MLC! We introduce CaStLe (Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning), a method for grid-level space-time causal discovery that scales efficiently in high-dimensional Earth system data. It enables causal analysis of grid-level processes like eruption plumes.
#EarthScience #CausalDiscovery
#EarthScience #CausalDiscovery
Space‐Time Causal Discovery in Earth System Science: A Local Stencil Learning Approach
We introduce Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning (CaStLe) for learning local causal dynamical structure underlying space-time data CaStLe enables previously infeasible analyses of grid-cell-level ...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
July 11, 2025 at 8:19 PM
Published in JGR:MLC! We introduce CaStLe (Causal Space-Time Stencil Learning), a method for grid-level space-time causal discovery that scales efficiently in high-dimensional Earth system data. It enables causal analysis of grid-level processes like eruption plumes.
#EarthScience #CausalDiscovery
#EarthScience #CausalDiscovery
👏👏👏👏
I’m thrilled to announce that I’m a new Future Investigator for NASA’s Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology.
July 10, 2025 at 5:48 PM
👏👏👏👏
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
⚒️ Article: Both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the Southwestern US in recent decades
@ynkuo.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
@ynkuo.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Recent southwestern US drought exacerbated by anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming - Nature Geoscience
Climate model simulations suggest that both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the southwestern United States in recent decades, thus maki...
www.nature.com
July 10, 2025 at 1:24 PM
⚒️ Article: Both anthropogenic aerosols and tropical ocean warming have contributed to reduced precipitation over the Southwestern US in recent decades
@ynkuo.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
@ynkuo.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Under Trump, NOAA ran the most recent competition for their highly prestigious postdoc program in climate and global change — but funded no one, wasting huge amounts of applicant and reviewer time.
It gets a lot worse. Now current postdocs in the program are going unpaid.
It gets a lot worse. Now current postdocs in the program are going unpaid.
Recipients of a U.S. Climate Science Fellowship Are Put on Unpaid Leave
www.nytimes.com
July 9, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Under Trump, NOAA ran the most recent competition for their highly prestigious postdoc program in climate and global change — but funded no one, wasting huge amounts of applicant and reviewer time.
It gets a lot worse. Now current postdocs in the program are going unpaid.
It gets a lot worse. Now current postdocs in the program are going unpaid.
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
As the UK prepares for an extended heatwave over coming days, interesting new @natgeosci.nature.com research suggests longer heatwaves as climate warms #climate #heatwave
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Accelerating increase in the duration of heatwaves under global warming - Nature Geoscience
The duration of long heatwaves increases at an accelerating rate with warming such that a large increase in the risk of long-lasting heatwaves results from relatively modest warming, according to an a...
www.nature.com
July 8, 2025 at 9:45 AM
As the UK prepares for an extended heatwave over coming days, interesting new @natgeosci.nature.com research suggests longer heatwaves as climate warms #climate #heatwave
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Climate mitigation and adaptation measures are not costs. They are investments.
The true costs occur when mitigation fails and adaptation is too slow so we suffer from continually worsening extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods.
Invest now to reduce costs in future.
The true costs occur when mitigation fails and adaptation is too slow so we suffer from continually worsening extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods.
Invest now to reduce costs in future.
June 29, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Climate mitigation and adaptation measures are not costs. They are investments.
The true costs occur when mitigation fails and adaptation is too slow so we suffer from continually worsening extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods.
Invest now to reduce costs in future.
The true costs occur when mitigation fails and adaptation is too slow so we suffer from continually worsening extreme weather events like heatwaves and floods.
Invest now to reduce costs in future.
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
The 💯-hour Weather and Climate Livestream is now available on YouTube! Head to www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcWR... to rewatch your favorite talks, catch up on the parts you missed, and learn how you can help Save America's Forecasts. And there's still time to call your reps at wclivestream.com/act
The 100-Hour Weather & Climate Livestream, Part 1
YouTube video by The Weather & Climate Livestream
www.youtube.com
June 24, 2025 at 11:43 AM
The 💯-hour Weather and Climate Livestream is now available on YouTube! Head to www.youtube.com/watch?v=CcWR... to rewatch your favorite talks, catch up on the parts you missed, and learn how you can help Save America's Forecasts. And there's still time to call your reps at wclivestream.com/act
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Our first paper on the CREDIT AI weather prediction framework is now published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science! Updated paper includes comparisons with pangu and more details about the model. Check it out at www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling - npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science - Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin: a scalable framework for AI-driven Earth System Modeling
www.nature.com
June 23, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Our first paper on the CREDIT AI weather prediction framework is now published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science! Updated paper includes comparisons with pangu and more details about the model. Check it out at www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Yesterday from Iowa City ☁️
June 20, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Yesterday from Iowa City ☁️
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started but have you ever wondered how hurricane seeds form? Read about it 👇
Thanks to @dinahvp.bsky.social @usatoday.com for the article!
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
Thanks to @dinahvp.bsky.social @usatoday.com for the article!
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
How 'tropical waves' carry confounding clues about huge hurricanes
The patterns found in the atmosphere often uneventfully dissipate, but occasionally feed giant hurricanes.
www.usatoday.com
June 4, 2025 at 1:49 AM
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season started but have you ever wondered how hurricane seeds form? Read about it 👇
Thanks to @dinahvp.bsky.social @usatoday.com for the article!
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
Thanks to @dinahvp.bsky.social @usatoday.com for the article!
www.usatoday.com/story/news/n...
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
While global mean sea level rise over recent decades has been driven mainly by greenhouse gases, the regional pattern in the Pacific has likely resulted from sulfate aerosol emissions - with important implications for the coming decades... www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Pan-Pacific low-frequency modes of sea level and climate variability
Coastal sea level records suggest that Pacific Ocean sea level and climate trends are unlikely to persist over the coming decades.
www.science.org
June 2, 2025 at 8:22 PM
While global mean sea level rise over recent decades has been driven mainly by greenhouse gases, the regional pattern in the Pacific has likely resulted from sulfate aerosol emissions - with important implications for the coming decades... www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
Reposted by Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan tropical cyclones? | PNAS
Predicting gray swan weather extremes, which are possible but so rare that they are
absent from the training dataset, is a major concern for AI wea...
doi.org
May 21, 2025 at 12:43 PM
Can AI weather models predict out-of-distribution gray swan extremes? We report @pnas.org that the answer is NO for global gray swans, YES for regional ones: AI models can't extrapolate from weaker events but can learn from similar events in other regions during training! doi.org/10.1073/pnas...