Der Bundesrat fühlte sich wohl unter Druck hier rasch eine Lösung zu präsentieren. Dabei hätte er besser das Supreme Court Ruling abgewartet. Die Hoffnung bleibt, dass viele der versprochenen Investitionen später gar nie stattfinden und die Schweiz nur auf Zeit spielt.

Die zugesagten 1500 Tonnen an zollfreiem Geflügel entsprechen rund 1-2% des Schweizer Jahresverbrauchs. Überraschend, dass ausgerechnet Parmelin hier Eingeständnisse macht. Bei den sehr knappen Margen in der Landwirtschaft tun auch diese kleinen Importsteigerung weh.

Die EU hat im Vergleich zur Schweiz Investitionszusagen in der Höhe von 650 Mia. gemacht, was rund 3% ihres BIPs darstellen. Die 200 Mia. der Schweiz entsprechen demgegenüber 21%! Obendrauf kommen noch zollfreie Kontingente für Poulet und Rindfleisch.

Maybe some promise of future private investments by Swiss companies? Seems the most likely variant. Is that a good idea though given that current tariffs are likely deemed unconstitutional? Then those investments would flow to the US rather than staying in CH for little gain.

Strategy's market cap is below the value of it's bitcoin. There's quite some room to go lower: Interest on all the outstanding loans are going to kick in later and the revenue from the actual operating business is barely covering expenses.

Exact same issue in the UK: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...

France will go to the polls once more. That won't resolve the underlying issues but maybe a different coalition can sell the necessary cuts to the French. A tried and tested method could be rabid populism that blames it all on the rich and foreigners t.co/IymNM2paHB

or be faced by a shrinking tax base for government revenue if they do implement higher taxes on the asset-rich. regarding a third option: any global cooperation between all states to shift the tax burden will always fail due to the prisoners dilemma: www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Any extension of social benefits will either directly or indirectly (via inflation) be funded by the working class itself, making the wealth gap between the asset-rich and working-poor larger every year. either governments can successfully distract people from this fact

I hate to be a cynic - but governments can either choose between becoming populist or losing their mandate every other year. The reality is that national governments have largely lost their ability to tax rich individuals or corporations due to today's global mobility of capital.

And here's the Sora 2 announcement - makes perfect sense now to create the content for the personalized feeds. And just putting an ad every now and then between the reels is a tried and tested monetization engine:
x.com/OpenAI/statu...

And that is excluding all other costs like salaries, servers, bandwidth, data acquisition and web crawling, etc. Demand for LLMs is huge but current cost structure and pricing is unsustainable. I expect prices to increase and model size to decrease when funding gets tight.

So far we have also assumed that all GPUs run at 100% utilization - hardly realistic. More likely is 50%, hence halving our revenue to $71 and generating a net profit margin of ca. -400%. Therefore in order to break even with current models prices need to be at least 5x higher.

This means the training cost is about $0.125 additionally per 1M tokens: $15M training cost / 120T * 1M tokens. This increases our costs further: (369 + 142) * $0.125 by $64 from $288 to $352. With $141 in revenue we got a net profit of -$211.

These models also have a finite life-span; let's assume half a year until they are outdated. During that time the model will generate about 120T tokens - assuming openrouter.ai captures about 1% of global API usage and 50B Tokens are used by GPT-4o-mini in 1 week.

For a model like Llama we need to train on around 15 trillion tokens. 1 H100 can work on 1.9B tokens in about 20.5 days. Therefore to train the model in 20.5 days we need to rent 7680 H100 GPUs running in parallel. Total cost: 7680 * 20.5d * 24h * $4 = about $15M