Jonathan Frei
@jcfrei.bsky.social
software and finance guy. all opinions my own.
threads.net/@jcfrei, https://x.com/jcfrei
threads.net/@jcfrei, https://x.com/jcfrei
The Dixie is back above 100 and the crypto market is looking very shaky tonight. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.
November 19, 2025 at 8:28 PM
The Dixie is back above 100 and the crypto market is looking very shaky tonight. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.
Apparently a new trade deal between CH + US is coming. Though I can't really imagine which concessions Swiss side was ready to make to get same rate as EU. Some LNG deal? Allow US meat? Both unlikely to pass parliament. Moving gold biz to US? A bit too little for a 24% cut.
November 13, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Apparently a new trade deal between CH + US is coming. Though I can't really imagine which concessions Swiss side was ready to make to get same rate as EU. Some LNG deal? Allow US meat? Both unlikely to pass parliament. Moving gold biz to US? A bit too little for a 24% cut.
Strategy's market cap is below the value of it's bitcoin. There's quite some room to go lower: Interest on all the outstanding loans are going to kick in later and the revenue from the actual operating business is barely covering expenses.
November 12, 2025 at 12:11 PM
Strategy's market cap is below the value of it's bitcoin. There's quite some room to go lower: Interest on all the outstanding loans are going to kick in later and the revenue from the actual operating business is barely covering expenses.
This chart is currently making the rounds. Is the replacement of labour with capital investments really going to be that obvious? I fear that AI is going to reduce bargaining power for workers - meaning shittier jobs for lower pay - not reducing overall employment.
November 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM
This chart is currently making the rounds. Is the replacement of labour with capital investments really going to be that obvious? I fear that AI is going to reduce bargaining power for workers - meaning shittier jobs for lower pay - not reducing overall employment.
France will go to the polls once more. That won't resolve the underlying issues but maybe a different coalition can sell the necessary cuts to the French. A tried and tested method could be rabid populism that blames it all on the rich and foreigners t.co/IymNM2paHB
October 7, 2025 at 5:32 PM
France will go to the polls once more. That won't resolve the underlying issues but maybe a different coalition can sell the necessary cuts to the French. A tried and tested method could be rabid populism that blames it all on the rich and foreigners t.co/IymNM2paHB
And here's the Sora 2 announcement - makes perfect sense now to create the content for the personalized feeds. And just putting an ad every now and then between the reels is a tried and tested monetization engine:
x.com/OpenAI/statu...
x.com/OpenAI/statu...
September 30, 2025 at 8:27 PM
And here's the Sora 2 announcement - makes perfect sense now to create the content for the personalized feeds. And just putting an ad every now and then between the reels is a tried and tested monetization engine:
x.com/OpenAI/statu...
x.com/OpenAI/statu...
probably the first step towards ads integration once it's released for everybody. a personalized feed like insta / tiktok is the standard ads delivery mechanism. additional compute costs should be low because generated content can be shared with everyone at little extra cost. x.com/sama/status/...
September 25, 2025 at 8:47 PM
probably the first step towards ads integration once it's released for everybody. a personalized feed like insta / tiktok is the standard ads delivery mechanism. additional compute costs should be low because generated content can be shared with everyone at little extra cost. x.com/sama/status/...
Interesting to follow LLM API usage via openrouter.ai Anthropic and Google seem to be clearly leading on the B2B front. While OpenAI captures the largest share of the B2C LLM market (according to app installations). Take a guess which market will have larger margins.
August 28, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Interesting to follow LLM API usage via openrouter.ai Anthropic and Google seem to be clearly leading on the B2B front. While OpenAI captures the largest share of the B2C LLM market (according to app installations). Take a guess which market will have larger margins.
How's the next Commissioner going to deal with the inevitable revisions? Will there be changes to the release schedule, quantity or quality of reports? Politicizing a supposedly independent bureau will turn investors away from the US - contrary to the administration's intentions.
August 12, 2025 at 5:12 PM
How's the next Commissioner going to deal with the inevitable revisions? Will there be changes to the release schedule, quantity or quality of reports? Politicizing a supposedly independent bureau will turn investors away from the US - contrary to the administration's intentions.
Don't know whether +51% control of the hash rate was achieved with malicious intent. But it's the most likely outcome for any PoW chain (unless prices keep rising forever). Monero has a fixed tail emission (0.6 XMR) - still couldn't prevent it. Here's why it's almost inevitable:
August 12, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Don't know whether +51% control of the hash rate was achieved with malicious intent. But it's the most likely outcome for any PoW chain (unless prices keep rising forever). Monero has a fixed tail emission (0.6 XMR) - still couldn't prevent it. Here's why it's almost inevitable:
Pretty smart way to mitigate aforementioned problem: x.com/elonmusk/sta...
July 4, 2025 at 3:56 PM
Pretty smart way to mitigate aforementioned problem: x.com/elonmusk/sta...
Odds of Elon Musk starting his own political party have now declined to <40% by year end. Not surprising since it's a near impossible task to gain even a single seat in the US parliament for a third party. The outdated FPTP voting system effectively guarantees a two party system.
July 2, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Odds of Elon Musk starting his own political party have now declined to <40% by year end. Not surprising since it's a near impossible task to gain even a single seat in the US parliament for a third party. The outdated FPTP voting system effectively guarantees a two party system.
This is the top 100 Coinmarketcap Index. It peaked roughly one month after Trump won the election. It has failed to reach new heights ever since. Bitcoin however did, leading to an increase in dominance last seen in April of 2021. April and November in '21 marked a BTC double top
July 1, 2025 at 6:07 PM
This is the top 100 Coinmarketcap Index. It peaked roughly one month after Trump won the election. It has failed to reach new heights ever since. Bitcoin however did, leading to an increase in dominance last seen in April of 2021. April and November in '21 marked a BTC double top
After alienating lots of Democrats Musk is now beefing with the MAGA base as well. No surprise TSLA is down 14% today.
June 5, 2025 at 10:26 PM
After alienating lots of Democrats Musk is now beefing with the MAGA base as well. No surprise TSLA is down 14% today.
And now Elon is even threatening the President himself. This has gotten more out of hand than I expected: x.com/elonmusk/sta...
June 5, 2025 at 8:41 PM
And now Elon is even threatening the President himself. This has gotten more out of hand than I expected: x.com/elonmusk/sta...
The reason the US cannot balance its budget lies in an ancient political system which unintentionally and inevitably leads to a two party system (x.com/jcfrei/statu...). No side can afford to lose too many voters due to unpopular benefit cuts. Inflation is the only way out.
June 5, 2025 at 3:14 PM
The reason the US cannot balance its budget lies in an ancient political system which unintentionally and inevitably leads to a two party system (x.com/jcfrei/statu...). No side can afford to lose too many voters due to unpopular benefit cuts. Inflation is the only way out.
A fitting end to the DOGE story: The initial lack of scapegoating has now been made up for. Musk blames congress as expected and is back to sleeping on the SpaceX factory floor: x.com/elonmusk/sta...
June 3, 2025 at 6:21 PM
A fitting end to the DOGE story: The initial lack of scapegoating has now been made up for. Musk blames congress as expected and is back to sleeping on the SpaceX factory floor: x.com/elonmusk/sta...
To nobody's surprise DOGE ended up in scenario one. Only surprise is the lack of scapegoating.
April 18, 2025 at 3:50 PM
To nobody's surprise DOGE ended up in scenario one. Only surprise is the lack of scapegoating.
And there's your answer, Trump did: x.com/tracyalloway...
April 9, 2025 at 5:31 PM
And there's your answer, Trump did: x.com/tracyalloway...
10-year yield now above "Liberation Day" announcement. Tariff war is already increasing costs for US gov to refinance debt. At the same time it's supposed to spur factory building in the US - hard to do with higher rates and constant uncertainty due to ongoing "negotiations".
April 8, 2025 at 3:39 PM
10-year yield now above "Liberation Day" announcement. Tariff war is already increasing costs for US gov to refinance debt. At the same time it's supposed to spur factory building in the US - hard to do with higher rates and constant uncertainty due to ongoing "negotiations".
If the Trump Tariffs come into effect on Wednesday then the trade war will turn into a game of chicken. Who blinks first? International companies or the American consumer? Inflation will come quickly and directly hurt Trump on one of his main campaign promises: Lowering prices.
April 8, 2025 at 3:05 PM
If the Trump Tariffs come into effect on Wednesday then the trade war will turn into a game of chicken. Who blinks first? International companies or the American consumer? Inflation will come quickly and directly hurt Trump on one of his main campaign promises: Lowering prices.
Trump’s the same as 40 years ago - Art of the Deal in full swing. Escalate, never retreat. Only difference? Then it was a casino; now it’s the global economy.
April 7, 2025 at 3:25 PM
Trump’s the same as 40 years ago - Art of the Deal in full swing. Escalate, never retreat. Only difference? Then it was a casino; now it’s the global economy.