Jonathan Frei
@jcfrei.bsky.social
software and finance guy. all opinions my own.
threads.net/@jcfrei, https://x.com/jcfrei
threads.net/@jcfrei, https://x.com/jcfrei
The Dixie is back above 100 and the crypto market is looking very shaky tonight. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.
November 19, 2025 at 8:28 PM
The Dixie is back above 100 and the crypto market is looking very shaky tonight. All major coins like BTC, ETH, XRP, BNB and SOL are below or close to psychologically important price levels.
Is Nvidia the Cisco of the 2020s? Currently their GPUs are the bottleneck for AI. Just like demand for Cisco's routers made them the most valuable firm in the Nasdaq in 2000. But over time the real winners were those who built on top of this infra: Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc.
November 19, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Is Nvidia the Cisco of the 2020s? Currently their GPUs are the bottleneck for AI. Just like demand for Cisco's routers made them the most valuable firm in the Nasdaq in 2000. But over time the real winners were those who built on top of this infra: Amazon, Google, Facebook, etc.
Ist das ein guter Deal für die Schweiz? 200 Mia. die nun in die USA fliessen für eine Zollreduktion die ohnehin kommen wird wenn der Supreme Court der Trump Regierung die ggw. Gesetzesgrundlage für weitreichende Tariffs entzieht: polymarket.com/event/will-t...
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the...
polymarket.com
November 14, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Ist das ein guter Deal für die Schweiz? 200 Mia. die nun in die USA fliessen für eine Zollreduktion die ohnehin kommen wird wenn der Supreme Court der Trump Regierung die ggw. Gesetzesgrundlage für weitreichende Tariffs entzieht: polymarket.com/event/will-t...
Apparently a new trade deal between CH + US is coming. Though I can't really imagine which concessions Swiss side was ready to make to get same rate as EU. Some LNG deal? Allow US meat? Both unlikely to pass parliament. Moving gold biz to US? A bit too little for a 24% cut.
November 13, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Apparently a new trade deal between CH + US is coming. Though I can't really imagine which concessions Swiss side was ready to make to get same rate as EU. Some LNG deal? Allow US meat? Both unlikely to pass parliament. Moving gold biz to US? A bit too little for a 24% cut.
If your largest donor (US Gov) doesn't like your oil demand predictions and threatens to defund you then you might as well just change your prediction with a little wink.
IEA sees global oil supply growth driving larger market glut reut.rs/4i3kXXE
IEA sees global oil supply growth driving larger market glut
The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil supply growth forecasts for this year and next in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, signalling a deeper surplus in 2026.
reut.rs
November 13, 2025 at 11:08 PM
If your largest donor (US Gov) doesn't like your oil demand predictions and threatens to defund you then you might as well just change your prediction with a little wink.
This chart is currently making the rounds. Is the replacement of labour with capital investments really going to be that obvious? I fear that AI is going to reduce bargaining power for workers - meaning shittier jobs for lower pay - not reducing overall employment.
November 5, 2025 at 4:56 PM
This chart is currently making the rounds. Is the replacement of labour with capital investments really going to be that obvious? I fear that AI is going to reduce bargaining power for workers - meaning shittier jobs for lower pay - not reducing overall employment.
Is the future of E-commerce shopping without ever leaving your chatbot? The Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) by OpenAI seems like a step in that direction: openai.com/index/buy-it...
Buy it in ChatGPT: Instant Checkout and the Agentic Commerce Protocol
We’re taking first steps toward agentic commerce in ChatGPT with new ways for people, AI agents, and businesses to shop together.
openai.com
November 3, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Is the future of E-commerce shopping without ever leaving your chatbot? The Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) by OpenAI seems like a step in that direction: openai.com/index/buy-it...
Unstable governments are probably going to become a staple. especially in countries where the populace shuns economic reality and expects a welfare system that tax revenue cannot provide. proposed wealth taxes - when introduced unilaterally - will just lead to a lower tax base.
Breaking News: Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu of France resigned in a surprise move that came less than 24 hours after forming a cabinet.
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu Resigns
Sébastien Lecornu stepped down less than 24 hours after he had formed his cabinet.
nyti.ms
October 6, 2025 at 11:10 AM
Unstable governments are probably going to become a staple. especially in countries where the populace shuns economic reality and expects a welfare system that tax revenue cannot provide. proposed wealth taxes - when introduced unilaterally - will just lead to a lower tax base.
probably the first step towards ads integration once it's released for everybody. a personalized feed like insta / tiktok is the standard ads delivery mechanism. additional compute costs should be low because generated content can be shared with everyone at little extra cost. x.com/sama/status/...
September 25, 2025 at 8:47 PM
probably the first step towards ads integration once it's released for everybody. a personalized feed like insta / tiktok is the standard ads delivery mechanism. additional compute costs should be low because generated content can be shared with everyone at little extra cost. x.com/sama/status/...
Here are some back-of-the-envelope calculations why the current API prices for LLMs are only possible due to massive VC investments and corporate sponsoring. Long term prices either need to increase by 5-10x or model size needs to be reduced.
September 2, 2025 at 5:21 PM
Here are some back-of-the-envelope calculations why the current API prices for LLMs are only possible due to massive VC investments and corporate sponsoring. Long term prices either need to increase by 5-10x or model size needs to be reduced.
Interesting to follow LLM API usage via openrouter.ai Anthropic and Google seem to be clearly leading on the B2B front. While OpenAI captures the largest share of the B2C LLM market (according to app installations). Take a guess which market will have larger margins.
August 28, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Interesting to follow LLM API usage via openrouter.ai Anthropic and Google seem to be clearly leading on the B2B front. While OpenAI captures the largest share of the B2C LLM market (according to app installations). Take a guess which market will have larger margins.
A stable CPI and a hotter than expected PPI means companies are so far not forwarding higher prices to consumers. Most likely to avoid drawing bad PR from the White House and being singled out. Unlikely to continue like this since it hurts shareholders. www.cnbc.com/2025/08/14/p...
Wholesale prices rose 0.9% in July, much more than expected
The producer price index was expected to show a 0.2% increase for July, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
www.cnbc.com
August 14, 2025 at 2:39 PM
A stable CPI and a hotter than expected PPI means companies are so far not forwarding higher prices to consumers. Most likely to avoid drawing bad PR from the White House and being singled out. Unlikely to continue like this since it hurts shareholders. www.cnbc.com/2025/08/14/p...
How's the next Commissioner going to deal with the inevitable revisions? Will there be changes to the release schedule, quantity or quality of reports? Politicizing a supposedly independent bureau will turn investors away from the US - contrary to the administration's intentions.
August 12, 2025 at 5:12 PM
How's the next Commissioner going to deal with the inevitable revisions? Will there be changes to the release schedule, quantity or quality of reports? Politicizing a supposedly independent bureau will turn investors away from the US - contrary to the administration's intentions.
Don't know whether +51% control of the hash rate was achieved with malicious intent. But it's the most likely outcome for any PoW chain (unless prices keep rising forever). Monero has a fixed tail emission (0.6 XMR) - still couldn't prevent it. Here's why it's almost inevitable:
August 12, 2025 at 1:34 PM
Don't know whether +51% control of the hash rate was achieved with malicious intent. But it's the most likely outcome for any PoW chain (unless prices keep rising forever). Monero has a fixed tail emission (0.6 XMR) - still couldn't prevent it. Here's why it's almost inevitable:
Fascinating to follow outrage over GPT-5 rollout. Model seems worse/less suitable for lots of people. I believe OpenAI tries to automatically reroute queries to bigger and smaller GPTs to optimize costs. Learnings: Users 1) are highly sensitive to model capability 2) want choice
August 11, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Fascinating to follow outrage over GPT-5 rollout. Model seems worse/less suitable for lots of people. I believe OpenAI tries to automatically reroute queries to bigger and smaller GPTs to optimize costs. Learnings: Users 1) are highly sensitive to model capability 2) want choice
Seit etwas mehr als 24h sind Trumps Zölle nun in Kraft (die höchsten in Europa). Polemiker beschulden mangels eigener Ideen den Bundesrat. Was in der Diskussion entweder fehlt oder unausgesprochen bleibt ist dass die Schweiz von historisch einzigartigen Umständen profitiert hat.
August 8, 2025 at 3:05 PM
Seit etwas mehr als 24h sind Trumps Zölle nun in Kraft (die höchsten in Europa). Polemiker beschulden mangels eigener Ideen den Bundesrat. Was in der Diskussion entweder fehlt oder unausgesprochen bleibt ist dass die Schweiz von historisch einzigartigen Umständen profitiert hat.
Doubtful that this is the final word regarding tariffs. Under Trump everything is always negotiable and nothing is final. Plus: Supreme court still gets to say if Pres has authority on tariffs. In any case: Uncertainty is not good for CH economy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...
Switzerland Is Stunned by 39% U.S. Tariff, Among the Highest in the World
www.nytimes.com
August 1, 2025 at 10:42 AM
Doubtful that this is the final word regarding tariffs. Under Trump everything is always negotiable and nothing is final. Plus: Supreme court still gets to say if Pres has authority on tariffs. In any case: Uncertainty is not good for CH economy. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/01/b...
Reposted by Jonathan Frei
Schweizer Immo-Markt: Auf immer und ewig nur aufwärts?: Der Konsens ist breit: Aus vielen guten Gründen kennen die Preise für Wohnliegenschaften auch künftig grundsätzlich nur eine Richtung. Eine zentrale Rolle spielt dabei die Erfahrung der letzten Jahrzehnte; die Warner lagen immer… #Banken
Schweizer Immo-Markt: Auf immer und ewig nur aufwärts?
Der Konsens ist breit: Aus vielen guten Gründen kennen die Preise für Wohnliegenschaften auch künftig grundsätzlich nur eine Richtung. Eine zentrale Rolle spielt dabei die Erfahrung der letzten Jahrzehnte; die Warner lagen immer falsch. Bei so viel Einigkeit lohnt es sich, in die Suppe zu spucken, findet finews.ch-Redaktor Peter Kuster.
dlvr.it
July 14, 2025 at 4:12 AM
Schweizer Immo-Markt: Auf immer und ewig nur aufwärts?: Der Konsens ist breit: Aus vielen guten Gründen kennen die Preise für Wohnliegenschaften auch künftig grundsätzlich nur eine Richtung. Eine zentrale Rolle spielt dabei die Erfahrung der letzten Jahrzehnte; die Warner lagen immer… #Banken
1000 new tanks that are likely to be destroyed by cheap drones within minutes of any actual combat sortie. This spending by the new German government looks more like economic stimulus rather than a serious investment in military capabilities. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Germany Prepares €25 Billion Tank Order to Ramp Up NATO Brigades
Germany is considering purchasing up to 2,500 armored fighting vehicles and as many as 1,000 battle tanks as part of a joint European effort to create new NATO brigades to deter Russia, according to p...
www.bloomberg.com
July 4, 2025 at 3:48 PM
1000 new tanks that are likely to be destroyed by cheap drones within minutes of any actual combat sortie. This spending by the new German government looks more like economic stimulus rather than a serious investment in military capabilities. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Odds of Elon Musk starting his own political party have now declined to <40% by year end. Not surprising since it's a near impossible task to gain even a single seat in the US parliament for a third party. The outdated FPTP voting system effectively guarantees a two party system.
July 2, 2025 at 9:37 PM
Odds of Elon Musk starting his own political party have now declined to <40% by year end. Not surprising since it's a near impossible task to gain even a single seat in the US parliament for a third party. The outdated FPTP voting system effectively guarantees a two party system.
This is the top 100 Coinmarketcap Index. It peaked roughly one month after Trump won the election. It has failed to reach new heights ever since. Bitcoin however did, leading to an increase in dominance last seen in April of 2021. April and November in '21 marked a BTC double top
July 1, 2025 at 6:07 PM
This is the top 100 Coinmarketcap Index. It peaked roughly one month after Trump won the election. It has failed to reach new heights ever since. Bitcoin however did, leading to an increase in dominance last seen in April of 2021. April and November in '21 marked a BTC double top
After alienating lots of Democrats Musk is now beefing with the MAGA base as well. No surprise TSLA is down 14% today.
June 5, 2025 at 10:26 PM
After alienating lots of Democrats Musk is now beefing with the MAGA base as well. No surprise TSLA is down 14% today.
Reposted by Jonathan Frei
everything is securities fraud www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
June 5, 2025 at 8:26 PM
everything is securities fraud www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
The reason the US cannot balance its budget lies in an ancient political system which unintentionally and inevitably leads to a two party system (x.com/jcfrei/statu...). No side can afford to lose too many voters due to unpopular benefit cuts. Inflation is the only way out.
June 5, 2025 at 3:14 PM
The reason the US cannot balance its budget lies in an ancient political system which unintentionally and inevitably leads to a two party system (x.com/jcfrei/statu...). No side can afford to lose too many voters due to unpopular benefit cuts. Inflation is the only way out.