Jason Doctor
@jasndoc.bsky.social
Reposted by Jason Doctor
People who have more complex social identities view political identity as a less reliable source of information about others. Therefore they rely less on group-based stereotypes when judging outgroup members.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103125000915
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103125000915
October 3, 2025 at 3:30 PM
People who have more complex social identities view political identity as a less reliable source of information about others. Therefore they rely less on group-based stereotypes when judging outgroup members.
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103125000915
www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022103125000915
Clicked "See All" on Concur but sadly did not become omniscient.
The Vice Dean who gets FOMO from approving travel reimbursements.
June 19, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Clicked "See All" on Concur but sadly did not become omniscient.
The Vice Dean who gets FOMO from approving travel reimbursements.
June 18, 2025 at 2:32 AM
The Vice Dean who gets FOMO from approving travel reimbursements.
Both 2FA and accepting cookies all day. I predict in 2035 there will be a third thing.
May 20, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Both 2FA and accepting cookies all day. I predict in 2035 there will be a third thing.
Sure QJE has a fabricated data scandal. But once again, they claim this is somehow new, when a few psychologists had been doing this for years.
May 19, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Sure QJE has a fabricated data scandal. But once again, they claim this is somehow new, when a few psychologists had been doing this for years.
LLMs seem like the human experience of reading aloud when it is going extremely well, as if, to the listener, you could look away from the book and continue reading all the same. Musicians call this "reading ahead". It is predicting the next letter, word, tone, mood from what came before.
May 19, 2025 at 7:28 PM
LLMs seem like the human experience of reading aloud when it is going extremely well, as if, to the listener, you could look away from the book and continue reading all the same. Musicians call this "reading ahead". It is predicting the next letter, word, tone, mood from what came before.
Reading aloud improves comprehension. In this case, that means reduced confusion and differential response to risk vs mirrors.
files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ8...
files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ8...
May 1, 2025 at 3:28 AM
Reading aloud improves comprehension. In this case, that means reduced confusion and differential response to risk vs mirrors.
files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ8...
files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ8...
Reposted by Jason Doctor
I’ll use this as an opportunity to promote a second independent non-replication. bsky.app/profile/geow...
💡 Open science: A team of researchers at Shandong University has attempted to replicate Oprea (2024 AER). The results do not replicate.
Oprea 2024 reported an online lab experiment, and found that prospect theory anomalies occur not only for lotteries, but also for deterministic 'mirrors'.
Oprea 2024 reported an online lab experiment, and found that prospect theory anomalies occur not only for lotteries, but also for deterministic 'mirrors'.
May 1, 2025 at 12:37 AM
I’ll use this as an opportunity to promote a second independent non-replication. bsky.app/profile/geow...
Sending my accountant a long philosophical stream-of-consciousness email a few days before the tax deadline.
April 14, 2025 at 7:50 PM
Sending my accountant a long philosophical stream-of-consciousness email a few days before the tax deadline.
Live picture of Trump showing his cross-modality matching tariff results where he was asked to adjust the brightness of a light and loudness of a pure tone to generate power functions that would set the tariffs.
April 9, 2025 at 1:42 AM
Live picture of Trump showing his cross-modality matching tariff results where he was asked to adjust the brightness of a light and loudness of a pure tone to generate power functions that would set the tariffs.
Reposted by Jason Doctor
this guy should call his senator tbh
While markets plunge and retirement accounts reel from Trump’s tariffs:
Elon and DOGE are taking a blowtorch to Social Security
They shut down local offices
They shut down phone services
They shut down website services
And now they’re proposing another round of mass layoffs
Elon and DOGE are taking a blowtorch to Social Security
They shut down local offices
They shut down phone services
They shut down website services
And now they’re proposing another round of mass layoffs
April 8, 2025 at 12:31 AM
this guy should call his senator tbh
Reposted by Jason Doctor
When I was in grad school in the 90's the rule of thumb from twin studies was that the heritability of everything was ~50%. It turns out that twin studies are highly confounded, & after unconfounding w/ new genome-based methods (Family-GWAS), the median heritability of behavioral phenotypes is ~5% 🧪
I know it's a rough time to be talking science, but in case anyone wants some distraction, I wrote about the Tan et al (2024) analysis of heritability and polygenic indices for complex human behavior. Title: Is Tan et al The End of Social Science Genomics?
Is Tan et al. The End of Social Science Genomics?
What happens when everything is unconfounded?
open.substack.com
April 6, 2025 at 6:54 PM
When I was in grad school in the 90's the rule of thumb from twin studies was that the heritability of everything was ~50%. It turns out that twin studies are highly confounded, & after unconfounding w/ new genome-based methods (Family-GWAS), the median heritability of behavioral phenotypes is ~5% 🧪
Sure it's a 1/1000 chance. But, the real question is "What’s the probability of such a bad trading day, given that the economy is actively being destroyed by someone.”
Then it is more like 9/10.
#ForeverBayesian
Then it is more like 9/10.
#ForeverBayesian
The past two days have been nothing short of historically bad. They have been worse than 99.9% of other trading days since 1929. This was the 5th worst 2-day window for stocks since 1945.
It is arguably the singular major drawdown resulting from a policy choice by the President.
It is arguably the singular major drawdown resulting from a policy choice by the President.
April 5, 2025 at 2:08 AM
Sure it's a 1/1000 chance. But, the real question is "What’s the probability of such a bad trading day, given that the economy is actively being destroyed by someone.”
Then it is more like 9/10.
#ForeverBayesian
Then it is more like 9/10.
#ForeverBayesian
Reposted by Jason Doctor
imagine explaining to someone in 2016 that Bill Kristol had united in a AOC/Bernie popular front against fascism
March 22, 2025 at 11:16 PM
imagine explaining to someone in 2016 that Bill Kristol had united in a AOC/Bernie popular front against fascism
Dolphins greeting astronauts—a beautiful planet
March 19, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Dolphins greeting astronauts—a beautiful planet
Reposted by Jason Doctor
social scientists should be smart enough not to see broad trends in observational data and conclude it's due to their pet theory BUT ALAS I GUESS
March 16, 2025 at 3:10 AM
social scientists should be smart enough not to see broad trends in observational data and conclude it's due to their pet theory BUT ALAS I GUESS
Reposted by Jason Doctor
Now you can read a short version of our comment on the AER paper, "Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity" on Data Colada.
... or the long version: bsky.app/profile/geow...
... or a follow-up (just posted yesterday):
bsky.app/profile/geow...
Bonus points for reading all 3.
... or the long version: bsky.app/profile/geow...
... or a follow-up (just posted yesterday):
bsky.app/profile/geow...
Bonus points for reading all 3.
Measurement error, Nobel Prize winning research, friendly disagreements, and more....
datacolada.org/124
datacolada.org/124
[124] "Complexity": 75% of participants missed comprehension questions in AER paper critiquing Prospect Theory - Data Colada
Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) “Prospect Theory” article is the most cited paper in the history of economics, and it won Kahneman the Nobel Prize in 2002. Among other things, it predicts that people ar...
datacolada.org
March 14, 2025 at 2:35 PM
Now you can read a short version of our comment on the AER paper, "Decisions under Risk Are Decisions under Complexity" on Data Colada.
... or the long version: bsky.app/profile/geow...
... or a follow-up (just posted yesterday):
bsky.app/profile/geow...
Bonus points for reading all 3.
... or the long version: bsky.app/profile/geow...
... or a follow-up (just posted yesterday):
bsky.app/profile/geow...
Bonus points for reading all 3.
Twitter is so creepy and weird now.
March 12, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Twitter is so creepy and weird now.
His past drug use does not disqualify him, but his “lived experience” doesn’t speak to the experiences of those who died or otherwise didn’t make it out of that hole.
It just remains very weird that a former heroin abuser is now trying to determine drug policy for your kids
RFK Jr’s views are dangerous, misguided, and deeply disturbing. Frankly, his policies will hurt people. I will push back on any attempts to disrupt the health and safety of Illinoisans.
abcnews.go.com/Politics/rfk...
abcnews.go.com/Politics/rfk...
February 23, 2025 at 9:40 PM
His past drug use does not disqualify him, but his “lived experience” doesn’t speak to the experiences of those who died or otherwise didn’t make it out of that hole.
minus the free homestead
February 21, 2025 at 3:16 AM
minus the free homestead
Exciting hockey! Like '80 Olympics. But, I worry this time Russia will win.
February 21, 2025 at 3:00 AM
Exciting hockey! Like '80 Olympics. But, I worry this time Russia will win.
ya think?
I'm beginning to believe that LLM scaling is some sort of investment scam.
February 19, 2025 at 4:28 PM
ya think?
Reposted by Jason Doctor
Public comment genuinely matters. Courts will overturn rules based on an administration not responding to substantive comments.
Department of Education FAFSA changes are open for public comment. The changes include requiring trans students to misgender themselves and removes the nonbinary option on forms. Note: comment period is 60 days, and comments are publicly visible.
Form here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
Form here: www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
February 19, 2025 at 3:40 AM
Public comment genuinely matters. Courts will overturn rules based on an administration not responding to substantive comments.