James Hay
jameshay.bsky.social
James Hay
@jameshay.bsky.social
Research Fellow at the Pandemic Sciences Institute, University of Oxford. Using maths and stats to understand infectious disease dynamics, mostly viral kinetics and serology. https://hay-idd.github.io/
An exciting output of our inference is the well-known relationship between antibody titer and probability of infection. Using our method, we can understand not just serological patterns, but also immunity patterns using these multi-antigen serology panels.
April 6, 2024 at 8:32 AM
We find:
1. Serology-based attack rates are high, at around 18% infected per year.
2. Influenza A/H3N2 infection rates are highest in children, decrease with age and plateau in adulthood.
3. Incidence rates are highly correlated at this small spatial scale.
April 6, 2024 at 8:32 AM
Fitting serosolver gave us estimates for: 1) each individual’s sequence of lifetime influenza infections; 2) incidence at a fine spatial scale; and 3) parameters of an antibody kinetics model describing boosting, waning, cross-reactivity and measurement error.
April 6, 2024 at 8:32 AM
This new paper brings these pieces together: we fit serosolver to our massive dataset of over 70,000 HI titers, summarizing antibody profiles against 20 A/H3N2 strains for 1,130 individuals from Guangzhou, China.
April 6, 2024 at 8:31 AM