Jake McMullen
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jakmull.bsky.social
Jake McMullen
@jakmull.bsky.social
630 followers 190 following 13 posts
Academic at the University of Turku, Finland. Math ed, ed psych, methods.
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Jake McMullen
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models). Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve. A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals). Illustrated are 1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals 2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and 3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
August 25, 2025 at 11:49 AM
jakmull.bsky.social
Of all of the ills brought on by genAI, the co-opting of the em-dash may be one of the worst
November 7, 2025 at 8:58 AM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
aidangcw.bsky.social
A new take on the limitations of "psychometric networks" now out in Nature Human Behavior. You don't want to put too much confidence in individual edges. Something we cautioned against in 2017.

1/2

www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Statistical evidence in psychological networks - Nature Human Behaviour
Psychometric network models have become increasingly popular in psychology and the social sciences. Huth et al. show that a large proportion of reported network findings are based on weak or inconclusive evidence inviting caution when interpreting results.
www.nature.com
October 12, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
emilymbender.bsky.social
Mic drop from @abeba.bsky.social at UNESCO Digital Learning Week
Slide: There are no shortcuts--'ugly social realities' Fear of being left out a fabricated & marketing public relations rhetoric Evidence, rigorous testing and evaluation AI in education = commercialization of a collective responsibility Outsourcing a social, civic, and democratic process of cultivating the coming generation to commercial and capitalist enterprise whose priority is profit
September 2, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
psyarxivbot.bsky.social
Exploring Pre-service Teachers' Generative AI Readiness and Behavioral Intentions: A Pilot Study: https://osf.io/3aygt
May 11, 2025 at 6:18 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
jaspstats.bsky.social
This summer: A week of hybrid workshops. 🛠️☀️
jasp-stats.org/workshops/

Discovering Statistics using JASP

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing with JASP

Machine Learning with JASP

State-of-the-Art Meta-Analysis with JASP

ECs for students available.
Bayes is using a JASP magic wand to conjure a white rabbit out of a top hat. Artwork by Viktor Beekman (instagram.com/viktordepictor), concept by Eric-Jan Wagenmakers (@ejwagenmakers.bsky.social). Available under a CC-BY license here: https://www.bayesianspectacles.org/artwork-library/
March 7, 2025 at 8:41 AM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
lorenzspreen.bsky.social
I wanted to highlight key findings from our study and the replication, and how they extend to 2024.

Now it provides a systematic review of more than 600 scientific studies on the relationship between digitalization and democracy.

So what does science have to say? We actually know quite a bit: 1/5
March 8, 2025 at 4:01 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
numcog.bsky.social
Looking for a post-doc? Apply for the Western Postdoctoral Fellowship Program at Western University @westernu.bsky.social in Canada🇨🇦. Comes with a competitive salary and a research stipend: www.uwo.ca/research/fun...
Western Postdoctoral Fellowship Program
Western University, in vibrant London, Ontario, delivers an academic and student experience second to none.
www.uwo.ca
March 6, 2025 at 4:56 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
jessicacalarco.com
It's hard not to see the hypocrisy of his attacks on Zelensky's choice of clothes.
A collage where the top photo has Trump smiling glbly in the Oval Office while Musk stands nearby in a t-shirt, baseball cap, and black coat, and where the bottom photo has Trump in the Oval Office pointing angrily at Zelensky, who is wearing a black, high-collar shirt with official Ukrainian insignia.
March 2, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
jessicacalarco.com
If "60 hours a week is the sweet spot of productivity," that's only because the tech workers who can put in all those hours at the office have offloaded all their caregiving responsibilities onto others more vulnerable than them.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/27/t...
Google’s Sergey Brin Asks Workers to Spend More Time In the Office (Gift Article)
The tech giant’s co-founder said that if employees worked harder and were in the office more, the company could reach an artificial general intelligence breakthrough.
www.nytimes.com
February 28, 2025 at 4:04 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
explaintrade.com
POV: You're 16, believe being in advanced placement math class means you're a once in a generation genius, and have just discovered Reddit.
February 23, 2025 at 11:07 AM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
jessicacalarco.com
I think we're seeing what happens when one side builds a coalition around collective outrage, and the other side mistakes the appeal of collective outrage for the appeal of particular policies.
February 23, 2025 at 12:04 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
sarahjeong.bsky.social
And people talk about how Koreans "showed up for their country" but like. Why do you think they showed up where they showed and when they showed up? The opposition party was literally sending SMS alerts and mass-printing glossy color cardstock signs for their voters
February 14, 2025 at 1:31 AM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
jakmull.bsky.social
Scientists! Can you share examples of society-run, open-access, non-profit journals that you know of? I'm thinking of this like AERA Open, Journal of Numerical Cognition, Frontline Learning Research
February 12, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
katarina-gvozdic.bsky.social
We are pleased to announce that the 5th Jean Piaget Conferences will take place from 25 to 27 June 2025 at the University of Geneva.
This year’s conference will be structured around three key axes: development, learning, and teaching.
Submissions : Feb 28th
confpiaget.sciencesconf.org
5èmes Conférences Jean Piaget - Sciencesconf.org
confpiaget.sciencesconf.org
February 13, 2025 at 8:48 AM
jakmull.bsky.social
Scientists! Can you share examples of society-run, open-access, non-profit journals that you know of? I'm thinking of this like AERA Open, Journal of Numerical Cognition, Frontline Learning Research
February 12, 2025 at 1:28 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
carlbergstrom.com
Modern-Day Oracles or Bullshit Machines?

Jevin West (@jevinwest.bsky.social) and I have spent the last eight months developing the course on large language models (LLMs) that we think every college freshman needs to take.

thebullshitmachines.com
INTRODUCTION
thebullshitmachines.com
February 4, 2025 at 4:12 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
maggieliz.bsky.social
Signal Boost: All U.S. federal government websites are already archived by the End of Term Web Archive

Let people know, download your own copies.
Don't let this digital book burn continue.

#Feds #Health #WHO #CDC #AMA #USPHS #FDA #NIH #NCHS #PCORI
All U.S. federal government websites are already archived by the End of Term Web Archive
Here's all the information you might need. Official website: https://eotarchive.org/ Wikipedia:...
old.reddit.com
January 31, 2025 at 11:19 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
cos.io
📣 Big news: Lifecycle Journal is now open for submissions! 📣

Lifecycle Journal is a new, innovative, community-driven approach to scholarly publishing, initiated by COS.

Learn more and submit: lifecyclejournal.org/
January 30, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
celiaford.bsky.social
Hi, Vox reporter here: If you've had a study section, NIH travel, or other NIH-related meeting cancelled (or not), raise your hand! Reply or DM me, and repost for visibility if you're able.

#academicsky @drugmonkey.bsky.social
January 23, 2025 at 6:03 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
lecagle.bsky.social
I desperately want an AI that submits travel reports for me so I can get reimbursed for my $12 breakfast without spending way more of my time than that $12 is worth to do it.

Is that what's being built or what I'm being offered? Of course not.
January 12, 2025 at 1:58 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
jessicacalarco.com
There is no maternity leave for members of Congress. And members aren't allowed to cast votes remotely while recovering from childbirth or caring for young kids. Yet, 47% American men believe the US has gone so far to promote women's equality that we're hurting men.
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/11/u...
In Congress, a Push for Proxy Voting for New Parents Draws Bipartisan Support
A group of younger lawmakers is pressing to change House rules to allow members who are new parents to vote remotely.
www.nytimes.com
January 12, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
laurajwilkinson.bsky.social
Finland vs. Germany: the case of MDPI

by @deevybee.bsky.social

deevybee.blogspot.com/2024/12/finl...

#PeerReview
Finland vs. Germany: the case of MDPI
It's been an odd week for the academic publisher MDPI. On 16th December, Finland's Publication Forum (known as JUFO) announced that from J...
deevybee.blogspot.com
January 8, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Reposted by Jake McMullen
brendannyhan.bsky.social
For all your 2025 teaching, writing, and article reviewing needs
brendannyhan.bsky.social Brendan Nyhan @brendannyhan.bsky.social · Sep 4
Grad methods should teach:
-Gelman & Stern 2006 (below)
-Heinmueller et al. on interactions
-Data Colada on power
-Gelman on interaction power
-Jacob/me on post-treatment bias
-Franco et al. on dropping conditions/outcomes (still common in "preregistered" work)

So many of my reviews are about these
January 1, 2025 at 4:25 PM