Jacob Stokes
@jacobstokes.bsky.social
Senior Fellow & Deputy Director, Indo-Pacific Security Program, Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
Previously White House & U.S. Congress. China, East Asian security, US foreign policy. Views mine.
Previously White House & U.S. Congress. China, East Asian security, US foreign policy. Views mine.
Pinned
Jacob Stokes
@jacobstokes.bsky.social
· Mar 18
Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making
China’s rapid nuclear buildup is raising questions about how the country makes decisions related to nuclear weapons.
www.cnas.org
My newest CNAS report: Assessing China's Nuclear Decision-Making: Three Analytical Lenses
I identify 3 lenses through which to view how Beijing makes decisions related to nukes: leadership, weapons systems & military organizations, & official policies & doctrine.
www.cnas.org/publications...
I identify 3 lenses through which to view how Beijing makes decisions related to nukes: leadership, weapons systems & military organizations, & official policies & doctrine.
www.cnas.org/publications...
One of the key questions of the new nuclear age is how big China's nuclear arsenal will ultimately grow. I game out potential endpoints in a new piece. www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/0...
How big will China’s nuclear arsenal get?
No one knows, but we can game out potential endpoints of Beijing’s buildup.
www.defenseone.com
August 6, 2025 at 5:04 PM
One of the key questions of the new nuclear age is how big China's nuclear arsenal will ultimately grow. I game out potential endpoints in a new piece. www.defenseone.com/ideas/2025/0...
"The most dangerous occupation in Washington these days is being an expert."
A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...
A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...
It’s a Really Bad Time to Be an Expert in Washington
www.nytimes.com
June 6, 2025 at 3:05 PM
"The most dangerous occupation in Washington these days is being an expert."
A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...
A great lede, although I'm not sure it should have made it through the fact check. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/06/u...
"it was not clear why the information about the DF-5, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was made public." www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
Chinese state media releases key details about DF-5 nuclear weapons
Rare disclosure may signal that the country has ‘far more powerful capabilities it has not shown the world’, according to one analyst.
www.scmp.com
June 5, 2025 at 7:48 PM
"it was not clear why the information about the DF-5, an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was made public." www.scmp.com/news/china/m...
I'm delighted to share my newest @cnas.bsky.social report:
Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire
It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...
Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire
It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...
Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency
A contingency across the Taiwan Strait has the potential to reshape the Indo-Pacific and even global security environment.
www.cnas.org
May 21, 2025 at 6:40 PM
I'm delighted to share my newest @cnas.bsky.social report:
Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire
It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...
Regional and Global Responses to a Taiwan Contingency: Gauging the Prospects for Coalition-Building Under Fire
It explains both structural & country-specific determinants & offers policy recommendations. www.cnas.org/publications...
Russia says Putin will travel to China in August apnews.com/article/russ...
Russia says Putin will travel to China in August
The Kremlin says Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to China at the end of August and beginning of September.
apnews.com
May 6, 2025 at 5:52 PM
Russia says Putin will travel to China in August apnews.com/article/russ...
Reposted by Jacob Stokes
“Slowing down China’s military modernization is so important that we should take some risks and incur some costs, especially in those areas where China might be using our capabilities … particularly these high-end chips,”
@jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.
@jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.
May 5, 2025 at 8:20 PM
“Slowing down China’s military modernization is so important that we should take some risks and incur some costs, especially in those areas where China might be using our capabilities … particularly these high-end chips,”
@jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.
@jacobstokes.bsky.social told us.
Reposted by Jacob Stokes
By a vote of 67 to 29, the #Senate confirmed David Perdue to be the Ambassador to the People's Republic of China.
Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse.
Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.
Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse.
Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.
Home - U.S. Senate Daily Press
Senate ScheduleThe Senate began a series of two votes at 11:29 a.m. There are two votes at 2:15 p.m. and further votes expected. Senate Hearings & Meetings
dailypress.senate.gov
April 29, 2025 at 4:17 PM
By a vote of 67 to 29, the #Senate confirmed David Perdue to be the Ambassador to the People's Republic of China.
Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse.
Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.
Senators not voting: Blumenthal, McConnell, Paul, and Whitehouse.
Please see dailypress.senate.gov for the vote breakdown.
Schrödinger's leaders call between Trump and Xi. Apparently, it happened and didn't happen simultaneously. www.ft.com/content/0192...
Donald Trump claims to have received call from Xi Jinping and to have cut ‘200 deals’ on trade
Beijing says there are no active talks and Washington should ‘stop creating confusion’
www.ft.com
April 25, 2025 at 3:18 PM
Schrödinger's leaders call between Trump and Xi. Apparently, it happened and didn't happen simultaneously. www.ft.com/content/0192...
"Mr. Trump is the latest commander in chief to arrive at the White House with an eye toward China, only to be diverted." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/o...
Opinion | Pete Hegseth Blunders Into His Forever War (Gift Article)
The operation in Yemen has sent the Trump administration into an exorbitant, potentially escalatory spiral.
www.nytimes.com
April 24, 2025 at 7:23 PM
"Mr. Trump is the latest commander in chief to arrive at the White House with an eye toward China, only to be diverted." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/24/o...
Reposted by Jacob Stokes
NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
CNAS Launches New National Security Human Capital Program to Safeguard America’s Warfighting Edge
Military personnel, political appointees, and civil servants meet the demands of the National Security Strategy by providing the nation with the…
www.cnas.org
April 16, 2025 at 2:35 PM
NEW: CNAS launches National Security Human Capital (NSHC) Program, a major research program led by
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
@klkuzminski.bsky.social focused on strengthening the United States’ most critical defense asset: its people.
www.cnas.org/press/press-...
Reposted by Jacob Stokes
"To help negotiators work out how...Xi Jinping, might react to a scenario...an AI alter ego, dubbed “Xibot”, is being developed...His team has produced three such AI “advisers” that reason in the distinct styles of George Patton, Genghis Khan and Sun Tzu." www.economist.com/science-and-...
AI models could help negotiators secure peace deals
Some are being developed to help end the war in Ukraine
www.economist.com
April 16, 2025 at 2:39 PM
"To help negotiators work out how...Xi Jinping, might react to a scenario...an AI alter ego, dubbed “Xibot”, is being developed...His team has produced three such AI “advisers” that reason in the distinct styles of George Patton, Genghis Khan and Sun Tzu." www.economist.com/science-and-...
Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China www.axios.com/2025/04/16/t...
Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China
"What the f**k is Elon doing there? Make sure he doesn't go," Trump said.
www.axios.com
April 16, 2025 at 12:51 PM
Trump dashed Musk's secret Pentagon briefing on China www.axios.com/2025/04/16/t...
How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance
Extensively reported Reuters piece.
www.reuters.com/markets/how-...
Extensively reported Reuters piece.
www.reuters.com/markets/how-...
How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance
The combative approach marked a hard turn for Beijing, which had tried to avoid a spiraling trade war.
www.reuters.com
April 13, 2025 at 8:15 PM
How China went from courting Trump to ‘never yield’ tariff defiance
Extensively reported Reuters piece.
www.reuters.com/markets/how-...
Extensively reported Reuters piece.
www.reuters.com/markets/how-...
In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Exclusive | In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks
A senior Chinese official linked intrusions to escalating U.S. support for Taiwan.
www.wsj.com
April 10, 2025 at 6:07 PM
In Secret Meeting, China Acknowledged Role in U.S. Infrastructure Hacks www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Not huge numbers, but still interesting and symbolically meaningful (if confirmed).
kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...
kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...
Over 160 Chinese nationals fight for Russia, obtained documents show
The documents, obtained by the Kyiv Independent, list the names, personal data, brigades, and ranks of Chinese nationals fighting for Russia.
kyivindependent.com
April 9, 2025 at 5:03 PM
Not huge numbers, but still interesting and symbolically meaningful (if confirmed).
kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...
kyivindependent.com/over-160-chi...
I was pleased to share some thoughts with @afpfr.bsky.social on how Trump's tariffs will shape broader US-China relations and Beijing's approach to the rest of the world. www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Trump tariffs offer opportunity for China
In unleashing global tariffs, President Donald Trump has vowed to remake the world to benefit US workers. One beneficiary could be the country he sees as the primary adversary -- China.
www.france24.com
April 7, 2025 at 5:07 PM
I was pleased to share some thoughts with @afpfr.bsky.social on how Trump's tariffs will shape broader US-China relations and Beijing's approach to the rest of the world. www.france24.com/en/live-news...
Reposted by Jacob Stokes
For some other time: issues where people, including me, have disagreed w Larry Summers.
For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...
For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...
April 3, 2025 at 7:28 PM
For some other time: issues where people, including me, have disagreed w Larry Summers.
For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...
For our exact moment in history: admiration and respect to him for making the points below so plainly and forcefully. Each person who speaks up makes a difference.
www.nytimes.com/2025/04/03/o...
"Sources said those fired include Brian Walsh, senior director for intelligence; Thomas Boodry, senior director for legislative affairs; and David Feith, another senior director."
Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...
Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...
Trump National Security Council staffers purged, U.S. officials say
One source said the firings come after Laura Loomer presented President Trump with opposition research on NSC staffers she views as neoconservatives or not sufficiently loyal to him.
www.cbsnews.com
April 3, 2025 at 5:20 PM
"Sources said those fired include Brian Walsh, senior director for intelligence; Thomas Boodry, senior director for legislative affairs; and David Feith, another senior director."
Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...
Alex Wong also reportedly being scrutinized. He worked for Romney's campaign in 2012. www.cbsnews.com/news/top-nat...
"the source familiar said they were 'being labeled as an anti-neocon move.'"
www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...
www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...
Scoop: Multiple firings on Trump's National Security Council after Loomer visit
A source described the firings as an anti-neocon "bloodbath"
www.axios.com
April 3, 2025 at 3:26 PM
"the source familiar said they were 'being labeled as an anti-neocon move.'"
www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...
www.axios.com/2025/04/03/t...
Reposted by Jacob Stokes
The US has sanctioned a handful of police, national security and government figures in Hong Kong, for actions that "threaten to further erode the autonomy of Hong Kong"
www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...
www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...
U.S. Sanctions Six Individuals for Undermining Hong Kong’s Autonomy - United States Department of State
Beijing and Hong Kong officials have used Hong Kong national security laws extraterritorially to intimidate, silence, and harass 19 pro-democracy activists who were forced to flee overseas, including ...
www.state.gov
March 31, 2025 at 5:51 PM
The US has sanctioned a handful of police, national security and government figures in Hong Kong, for actions that "threaten to further erode the autonomy of Hong Kong"
www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...
www.state.gov/u-s-sanction...
Reposted by Jacob Stokes
Also, post-2016 Abe did plenty of outreach to China of his own.
If we're looking at the big picture, Abe embracing the US as much as he did is more of an exception than the norm. It's always been about hedging.
March 31, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Also, post-2016 Abe did plenty of outreach to China of his own.
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China
Four Taiwanese soldiers have been jailed for passing information to China in a case that analysts say shows the extent of Beijing’s infiltration of Taipei.
www.washingtonpost.com
March 28, 2025 at 7:00 PM
Taiwanese soldiers guarding president’s office were spying for China www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0...
"A review committee said the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence and another company, the Beijing Innovation Wisdom Technology Co. were judged to have developed large AI models and advanced computer chips for military purposes." apnews.com/article/chin...
US adds Chinese tech firms to its export control list, says they sought US knowhow for military use
The U.S. has added dozens of companies to its export control, including more than 50 based in China that it says sought advanced knowhow in supercomputing, artificial intelligence and quantum technolo...
apnews.com
March 26, 2025 at 4:37 PM
"A review committee said the Beijing Academy of Artificial Intelligence and another company, the Beijing Innovation Wisdom Technology Co. were judged to have developed large AI models and advanced computer chips for military purposes." apnews.com/article/chin...
How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China www.propublica.org/article/elon...
How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China
As a U.S. military contractor, SpaceX sees allowing Chinese ownership as fraught. But it will allow the investment if it comes through secrecy hubs like the Cayman Islands, court records say. “It is c...
www.propublica.org
March 26, 2025 at 12:15 PM
How Elon Musk’s SpaceX Secretly Allows Investment From China www.propublica.org/article/elon...
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community:
"Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests."
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
"Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests."
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
www.dni.gov
March 25, 2025 at 8:17 PM
Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community:
"Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests."
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...
"Cooperation between China and Russia has the greatest potential to pose enduring risks to U.S. interests."
www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/d...