With the 2026 WNBA lottery combinations announced — @kareemcopeland.bsky.social I believe had it first — here are the odds for each pick in the top five (assuming the process does not change from 2025)

@herhoopstats.com | @theixbasketball.bsky.social

And Seattle

Phoenix

Las Vegas

Adding some revised charts

ATL

Seattle

LA

8 seed
Go 2-0, Golden State 1-0

Eliminated
Anything else

Indiana have basically the inverse of GSV

6 seed
Golden State 0-2 and Indiana 1-0

New playoff possibility charts, in order of simplicity

First up: Golden State

8 seed
Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 1-0

6 seed
Anything else

And lastly, Indiana. Win a game, or LA loses one, and they’re in.

Seattle gets a little to complex to list everything out, but the short version is this:

Clinch
1. Go 1-0 OR
2. LAS loses 1+ game

Eliminated
1. Go 0-1 AND LAS go 3-0

6 Seed
1. Go 1-0 AND GSV and IND go winless

Every other outcome is either a 7 or 8 seed

For Los Angeles:

Clinch
1. Go 3-0 AND Seattle OR Indiana go winless

7 Seed
1. Go 3-0 AND Seattle AND Indiana go winless

8 Seed
1. Go 3-0 AND Seattle 0-1 AND Indiana 1-1 OR
2. Go 3-0 AND Seattle 1-0 AND Indiana 0-3

Finally have some legible playoff seeding flowcharts, starting with Golden State.

6 Seed
1. Go 1-1 or better OR
2. Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 1-1

7 Seed
1. Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 0-2

8 Seed
1. Go 0-2 and Indiana goes 2-0

@theixbasketball.bsky.social | @herhoopstats.com