Academics (including myself) infrequently update their personal websites after they get tenure. What happens when you win the Nobel Prize?

This is a current screenshot of Paul Milgrom's personal website:

In the interim before we have extremely dexterous robots, many tasks can be automated by low-skill humans receiving elaborate step-by-step instructions from AI via headphones. What economic consequences will this have?

What happens if we look over time when people start using antibiotics? We find an even bigger increase. Mortality increases by 42% in the 6 months following initiation of some antiobiotic therapy.

I decided to look at the data for myself. In Medicare, those prescribed antiobiotics were 37% MORE LIKELY TO DIE than people who didn't use antibiotics. And yes, this difference is enormously statistically significant (p << 0.0001)

Anecdotally I would have guessed economists had shifted much more heavily to BlueSky but it seems like Twitter still has almost 10x the # of economists (might have shifted somewhat since the survey was done).

People overestimate the degree to which research is about new ideas and underestimate the degree to which research is about correctly identifying which ideas are important and deserve more attention and why they deserve it.

I enjoyed Station 11 and Klara and the Sun -- they are well-written books, but Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow is a different beast. This is like comparing Hamilton with Stravinsky. Then I became suspicious and I googled the first words...

The book is filled with clever wordplay and imagery, some of which I understood, and some of which were esoteric jibes that I could see were jibes, but that seemed arbitrary and random. I was on board anyway -- fuck those mediocre Irish poets!

A book review of Tomorrow and Tomorrow and Tomorrow by Gabrielle Zevin.

This is probably the first book review you will read that has absolutely no spoilers and that you will appreciate equally whether you have read the book or not (at least if you read to the end).

*For a monopolist selling a durable good
*Provided they lack commitment
*Subject to a few other regularity and monotonicity conditions

What is money spent on? Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security are 45%. Defense and debt payments are 28%. The VA, education and transportation are 15%. SNAP, UI, child nutrition, and the earned income tax credit are 7.5%. The remainder is stuff like military pensions.

The total payroll of the federal government is about $110 billion a year https://buff.ly/3CnrMCx

Federal government spending was $6.1 trillion https://buff.ly/3YLb0Vf

You cannot meaningfully shrink the federal government by firing "unelected bureaucrats"

This graph from Casey Mulligan seems like a big deal if it's correct:

a) Can people confirm that the # of clinical trials has declined dramatically?

b) It looks like this is partly a time trend that predates the IRA. Any explanations for this effect? (aside from anticipation of price controls)