Inji Achour
LightNews LightNews
banner
injiachour.bsky.social
Inji Achour
@injiachour.bsky.social
40 followers 73 following 3 posts
Political scientist | Avid lover of classic architecture | Avid classical movies and music fan | Socially curious
وهنغزل توب الفرحة يابوي 🎶
Posts Replies Media Videos
Reposted by Inji Achour
jacksapoch.bsky.social
NEW: Since October 2023, the IDF Spokesperson's Unit has released dozens of 3D animations illustrating alleged Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian sites

The style is now unmistakable: satellite zoom-ins, black & white wireframes, and red-textured houses - a new visual language of war
October 8, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
scottlgreer.bsky.social
“52% of all autocratization episodes become U-Turns, which increases to 73% when focusing on the last 30 years. The vast majority of U-Turns (90%) lead to restored or even improved levels of democracy”

V-Dem data
When autocratization is reversed: episodes of U-Turns since 1900
The world is in a “wave of autocratization.” Yet, recent events in Brazil, the Maldives, and Zambia demonstrate that autocratization can be halted and reversed. This article introduces “U-Turn” as ...
www.tandfonline.com
September 20, 2025 at 4:05 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
tkeskinturk.bsky.social
a new working paper: osf.io/vsr5b

I propose a three-stage model of cohortization where dynamics of cohort learning and political sorting serve as complementary engines of aggregate political change.

I apply this to the case of the killing of George Floyd & the BLM.

it's also my job market paper!
Generational Imprinting: How Political Events Shape Cohorts Turgut Keskintürk August, 2025 How, and for whom, do political events translate into enduring political change? This article advances a three-stage model of cohortization, in which salient events produce age differential changes in attitudes, elite cues drive identity-congruent political sorting, and life-course timing regulates whether these attitude changes remain persistent over time. Focusing on the killing of George Floyd and the Black Lives Matter protests in the summer of 2020 as a quasi-natural experiment, I test this model by analyzing attitudes toward U.S. law enforcement among non-Hispanic White Americans using five surveys that collectively span from 2016 to 2024. The findings consistently show that Democrats and Independents became strongly unfavorable toward law enforcement—much more so among younger than older individuals. Moreover, the changes persisted for younger individuals, while fading among older individuals, leading to cohort-led polarization. This article integrates two classic—though largely partial—theories of political learning, offering a model for understanding how salient events can realign generational divides.
September 1, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
ronjasczepanski.bsky.social
Ever asked yourself how to detect and extract social groups from texts with computational social science? @haukelicht.bsky.social and me have a solution for you out at @bjpols.bsky.social. You can also find the pre-trained models on huggingface!
bjpols.bsky.social British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · Sep 1
NEW -

Detecting Group Mentions in Political Rhetoric A Supervised Learning Approach - cup.org/45WZppQ

- @haukelicht.bsky.social & @ronjasczepanski.bsky.social

#OpenAccess
BJPolS Abstract discussing a social science research method that uses text analysis for understanding group language patterns and political leanings, mentioning the use of British articles and generating new empirical insights.
September 1, 2025 at 3:46 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
johnholbein1.bsky.social
August 30, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
mariannedahl.bsky.social
📊 New dataset and paper alert!
We’re proud to launch the Opposition Movements and Groups (OMG) Dataset, 1789–2019: a global dataset covering 1,452 mass mobilization movements. It was just published in Comparative Political Studies. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

Below follows a 🧵
August 29, 2025 at 11:08 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
dingdingpeng.the100.ci
Ever stared at a table of regression coefficients & wondered what you're doing with your life?

Very excited to share this gentle introduction to another way of making sense of statistical models (w @vincentab.bsky.social)
Preprint: doi.org/10.31234/osf...
Website: j-rohrer.github.io/marginal-psy...
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients into Clear Quantities Abstract Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear models, but is more challenging for more complex models with, for example, categorical variables, interactions, non-linearities, and hierarchical structures. Here, we introduce an alternative approach to making sense of statistical models. The central idea is to abstract away from the mechanics of estimation, and to treat models as “counterfactual prediction machines,” which are subsequently queried to estimate quantities and conduct tests that matter substantively. This workflow is model-agnostic; it can be applied in a consistent fashion to draw causal or descriptive inference from a wide range of models. We illustrate how to implement this workflow with the marginaleffects package, which supports over 100 different classes of models in R and Python, and present two worked examples. These examples show how the workflow can be applied across designs (e.g., observational study, randomized experiment) to answer different research questions (e.g., associations, causal effects, effect heterogeneity) while facing various challenges (e.g., controlling for confounders in a flexible manner, modelling ordinal outcomes, and interpreting non-linear models). Figure illustrating model predictions. On the X-axis the predictor, annual gross income in Euro. On the Y-axis the outcome, predicted life satisfaction. A solid line marks the curve of predictions on which individual data points are marked as model-implied outcomes at incomes of interest. Comparing two such predictions gives us a comparison. We can also fit a tangent to the line of predictions, which illustrates the slope at any given point of the curve. A figure illustrating various ways to include age as a predictor in a model. On the x-axis age (predictor), on the y-axis the outcome (model-implied importance of friends, including confidence intervals). Illustrated are 1. age as a categorical predictor, resultings in the predictions bouncing around a lot with wide confidence intervals 2. age as a linear predictor, which forces a straight line through the data points that has a very tight confidence band and 3. age splines, which lies somewhere in between as it smoothly follows the data but has more uncertainty than the straight line.
August 25, 2025 at 11:49 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
dinaosama.bsky.social
Check out my new blog post in Religion in Public on my latest article in Politics and Religion.
Do Catholic churches matter in today’s struggles with democratic backsliding and autocratization?
Do Catholic Churches Defend Democracy?
Dina Osama Lotfy, Cairo University [Cover image source Thomson Reuters; Riot policemen fire tear gas to disperse a Catholic priest and demonstrators during a protest against DRC President Joseph Ka…
religioninpublic.blog
August 25, 2025 at 1:46 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
johnholbein1.bsky.social
This week I saw preprints from academics at very serious institutions that confidently predicted that ...

1.) there will be no humans by 2339 and
2.) Congress will be dominated by the Democrats in 2050.

Wild, since I can’t even predict what's gonna happen tomorrow.
August 22, 2025 at 3:54 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
chknutsen.bsky.social
Are regimes with higher nr's of core supporters more durable? Are regimes with more diverse coalitions of supporters more durable?

In this (published today) @cpsjournal.bsky.social article, @sirianned.bsky.social , @magnusrasmussen.bsky.social , and @torewig.bsky.social I answer "Yes" to both Qs.
August 20, 2025 at 9:20 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
johnholbein1.bsky.social
New article at the Journal of Politics finds that when Swifties failed to get Eras Tour tickets it made them more likely to...

-see Ticketmaster as unfair,
-support reforms to make ticket sales more equal, &
-file government complaints

This study uses the ticket lottery for the Eras Tour.
August 10, 2025 at 5:41 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
cambup-polsci.cambridge.org
#OpenAccess from Politics and Religion -

Catholic churches’ stances toward electoral manipulation in the post-Third Wave period - cup.org/4ot1WRe

- @dinaosama.bsky.social

#FirstView
Graphic with the words 'Politics and Religion' in bold red letters on a striped background with a red banner and the hashtag '#OpenAccess' at the bottom.
August 6, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
chknutsen.bsky.social
Does higher state capacity go together with lower risk of democratic breakdown? Many political scientists certainly believe so!

Yet, in an article just published in @polstudies.bsky.social , David Andersen, @skaaning.bsky.social and I highlight important nuances to this general relationship.
July 3, 2025 at 9:32 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
cultarchaeo.bsky.social
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

Humans really did build the pyramids.
jensnotroff.com Jens Notroff @jensnotroff.com · Jun 17
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

Yeah, but … this is just a stone.
jensfoell.de Dr. Jens Foell @jensfoell.de · Jun 17
What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

We’re not clear on what intelligence is, at all
June 17, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
jonaswschmid.bsky.social
While we didn't anticipate this when we started this project, our paper now also has important implications for the US in light of their slide into competitive authoritarianism, cuts to FEMA and Trump's open plans to use disaster relief as a political weapon.
jonaswschmid.bsky.social Jonas W. Schmid @jonaswschmid.bsky.social · Jun 11
After large-scale disasters autocrats often shift the blame on others to save their popularity. Our 🚨new paper🚨, just accepted at Perspectives on Politics, shows that this tactic is prone to backfire. With @edwardgoldring.bsky.social & @fapaydin.bsky.social . shorturl.at/v6wIV%E2%AC%...
The title page of a paper listing the title: "Blame Shifting in Autocracies Following Large-scale Disasters: Evidence from Turkey"; the authors: Edward Goldring, Jonas Willibald Schmid, and Fulya Apaydin; and the abstract: "Large-scale disasters, particularly when handled poorly, often spark popular outrage and threaten an autocrat’s hold on power. Autocrats frequently employ blame shifting strategies to redirect public anger and weather these storms. We examine whether blame shifting after a large-scale disaster helps or hurts an autocrat’s popularity through a mixed-methods research design in the electoral autocracy of Turkey in April-July 2023, following the February 2023 earthquakes. An online survey experiment (n=3,839) identifies the effects of blaming the aftermath of the earthquake on the opposition, a force majeure, private construction companies, or a govern- ment minister, while focus groups explore the mechanisms behind these effects. We find that blaming the opposition or a force majeure leads to a backlash, especially among those more able to critically evaluate information. Focus groups reveal that these backlash effects are driven by voters’ dismay at electoral opportunism and the incumbent’s polarizing language following a large-scale disaster."; and the note that the paper is forthcoming in Perspectives on Politics.
June 11, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
pengzell.bsky.social
Sociology is mostly about choosing whether something is “structured”, “contingent”, or “performed”
June 10, 2025 at 1:10 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
henrymance.ft.com
I guess we'll never know who shot them
June 3, 2025 at 6:58 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
fabioangiolillo.bsky.social
🚨New publication!

By now, we know 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 democratic institutions autocratizers undermine, yet we (w/ Gorazd Ordanoski) ask:

𝑯𝒐𝒘 do they attack them?

We present three sequential repressive steps:
1️⃣ legitimization rhetoric
2️⃣ legal engineering
3️⃣ coercive control

🔓🧵
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Patterns of incumbents’ repression during autocratization
How do incumbents attack accountability during autocratization? The literature focuses on what democratic institutions autocratizers undermine, yet incumbents’ steps in attacking accountability mea...
www.tandfonline.com
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
aljazeera.com
Lawyers for six victims say ‘historic’ decision recognises the plight of survivors who demanded justice for decades.
Guatemala jails ex-paramilitaries for 40 years over rapes during civil war
Lawyers for six victims say ‘historic’ decision recognises the plight of survivors who demanded justice for decades.
bit.ly
May 31, 2025 at 5:00 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
johnholbein1.bsky.social
Men dominate hollywood scripts.

pudding.cool/2017/03/film...
The Largest Analysis of Film Dialogue by Gender, Ever
Lately, Hollywood has been taking so much shit for rampant sexism and racism. The prevailing theme: white men dominate movie roles.
pudding.cool
May 26, 2025 at 2:52 PM
Reposted by Inji Achour
bjpols.bsky.social
From March 2025 -

Behind the Throne: Regime support coalitions around the world, 1789-2020 - cup.org/41ytCt3

- @chknutsen.bsky.social, @sirianned.bsky.social, @magnusrasmussen.bsky.social & @torewig.bsky.social

#OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the support and opposition of various regimes from 1789-2020, utilizing a "regime support dataset" to analyze different features of these regimes. The abstract outlines the methodology, scope, and historical analysis of political and social changes on a global scale.
May 19, 2025 at 8:20 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
kristianvsf.bsky.social
🛎️New WP with @morganlcj.bsky.social @timallinger.bsky.social and @danbischof.bsky.social

Against the surge of conjoints and other hypothetical experiments in relation to democratic backsliding, we study the consequences of using hypotheticals versus real-world scenarios.

osf.io/preprints/os...
May 14, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
skaaning.bsky.social
Interested in debates about how to measure democracy and/or the use of observable and judgmental indicators? Then check out this piece.
danpemstein.com Dan Pemstein @danpemstein.com · Apr 30
A few years ago, @danweitzel.net, John Gerring, @skaaning.bsky.social and I were curious how well one could predict subjective democracy measures using easy(ish) to code observables. Turns out, *quite* well, even out of sample. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
Measuring electoral democracy with observables Most cross-national indices of democracy rely centrally on coder judgments, which are susceptible to bias and error, and require expensive and time consuming coding by experts. We present an approach to measurement based on observables that aim to preserve the nuanced quality of subjectively coded democracy indices. Our observable-to-subjective score mapping is free of idiosyncratic coder errors arising from misinformation, slack, or biases. It is less susceptible to systematic bias that may arise from coders’ inferences about a country’s regime, for example, from the ideology of the ruler. The data collection procedure and mode of analysis are fully transparent and replicable, and the procedure is based on random forests and is cheap to produce, easy to update, and offers coverage for all polities with sovereign or semisovereign status, surpassing the sample of any existing index. We show that this expansive coverage makes a big difference to our understanding of some causal questions.
May 2, 2025 at 7:12 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
profjanegreen.bsky.social
Loved working on this paper. We have too narrow a view of economic self-interest in politics. People also support policies and parties that protect those we care about…the family is a key focal point for these concerns.
bjpols.bsky.social British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · Apr 24
NEW -

Family Matters: How Concerns about the Financial Wellbeing of Young Relatives Shape the Political Preferences of Older Adults - cup.org/3Gny1bz

- @zackgp94.bsky.social, @profjanegreen.bsky.social & Geoffrey Evans

#OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the financial and political polarization, the support for government spending on welfare measures, and the struggles of younger individuals and families in managing economic hardships, possibly in the context of British assets and family-centric economical approaches.
April 24, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Reposted by Inji Achour
anjaneundorf.bsky.social
🧵 THREAD: Can a short online intervention help defend democracy against partisan polarization?

In our new study - just published in the @bjpols.bsky.social - my colleagues and I tested this question across 33 countries 🌍 with over 41,000 participants 🧑‍🤝‍🧑.

Here’s what we found 👇
April 24, 2025 at 11:17 AM