Ian Bowers
@ianbowers.bsky.social
Professsor of International Security at Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies - Norwegian Defence University College | Sea power, joint operations, deterrence, Korea | Professional Military Education
Reposted by Ian Bowers
The reality of North Korea punditry is that *very* few people *remotely* have an idea of what Kim Jong Un is up to, and even then, they haven’t had an informed take since probably 2019-20. Yet “experts” are asked to opine and speculate and it becomes headline news. Yes, the media fuels this, I know.
September 2, 2025 at 2:48 PM
The reality of North Korea punditry is that *very* few people *remotely* have an idea of what Kim Jong Un is up to, and even then, they haven’t had an informed take since probably 2019-20. Yet “experts” are asked to opine and speculate and it becomes headline news. Yes, the media fuels this, I know.
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Reposted by Ian Bowers
The Future of Defense Is Coincidentally Made By My Company
by
Every War Industry Executive
by
Every War Industry Executive
August 5, 2025 at 6:07 PM
The Future of Defense Is Coincidentally Made By My Company
by
Every War Industry Executive
by
Every War Industry Executive
Reposted by Ian Bowers
A nuclear promise is only as strong as it is believable. And right now, South Korea isn’t convinced. warontherocks.com/20...
Bridging the Ambiguity-Explicitness Gap in the U.S.-South Korean Alliance - War on the Rocks
One side wants more explicitness in the level of commitment to the relationship, while the other wants to remain ambiguous. While this tug-of-war could
warontherocks.com
July 28, 2025 at 2:01 PM
A nuclear promise is only as strong as it is believable. And right now, South Korea isn’t convinced. warontherocks.com/20...
Reposted by Ian Bowers
A great smorgasbord of strategic thinking in the latest issue of Survival. Key words: time is of the essence. The piece on "NATO's vulnerable space assets" is ground-breaking (@IanBowers & Henrik Stålhane Hiim) re the baleful consequences for Europe of 🇨🇳space operations in a Taiwan crisis.
July 12, 2025 at 4:12 PM
A great smorgasbord of strategic thinking in the latest issue of Survival. Key words: time is of the essence. The piece on "NATO's vulnerable space assets" is ground-breaking (@IanBowers & Henrik Stålhane Hiim) re the baleful consequences for Europe of 🇨🇳space operations in a Taiwan crisis.
Reposted by Ian Bowers
NEW satellite imagery and AIS data provide the first complete timeline of how China has systematically deployed structures in disputed Yellow Sea waters despite S. Korean objections, according to @csis.org Beyond Parallel analysis.
cc: @victordcha.bsky.social, AMTI, Jennifer Jun
↓ Findings below
cc: @victordcha.bsky.social, AMTI, Jennifer Jun
↓ Findings below
June 23, 2025 at 1:56 PM
NEW satellite imagery and AIS data provide the first complete timeline of how China has systematically deployed structures in disputed Yellow Sea waters despite S. Korean objections, according to @csis.org Beyond Parallel analysis.
cc: @victordcha.bsky.social, AMTI, Jennifer Jun
↓ Findings below
cc: @victordcha.bsky.social, AMTI, Jennifer Jun
↓ Findings below
Check out our new article in Survival written with Henrik Hiim.
We examine the knock-on risks of a US-China conflict to NATO's space operations and the potential impact on NATO's warfighting capabilities.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
We examine the knock-on risks of a US-China conflict to NATO's space operations and the potential impact on NATO's warfighting capabilities.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Knock-on Risks to NATO’s Space-based War-fighting Capabilities
NATO is more vulnerable to a war in the Indo-Pacific than is commonly understood. In a conflict between the United States and China, key US space-based capabilities would be tasked away from Europe...
www.tandfonline.com
June 4, 2025 at 8:13 AM
Check out our new article in Survival written with Henrik Hiim.
We examine the knock-on risks of a US-China conflict to NATO's space operations and the potential impact on NATO's warfighting capabilities.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
We examine the knock-on risks of a US-China conflict to NATO's space operations and the potential impact on NATO's warfighting capabilities.
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Exit polls have Lee Jae-myung as South Korea's next president. There will be plenty of pieces in next few days saying why that's good/bad-most will say bad-for US-ROK alliance. For now, enough to say this starts to bring closure to a very turbulent few months in South Korea's domestic politics.
Lee Jae-myung poised to win S. Korean presidency
Lee Jae-myung, leader of South Korea's main liberal Democratic Party of Korea, is poised to win the presidency, according to an exit poll released after voting
www.koreaherald.com
June 3, 2025 at 11:24 AM
Exit polls have Lee Jae-myung as South Korea's next president. There will be plenty of pieces in next few days saying why that's good/bad-most will say bad-for US-ROK alliance. For now, enough to say this starts to bring closure to a very turbulent few months in South Korea's domestic politics.
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Just announced: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will deliver a keynote (virtually) at our Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday morning. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
April 19, 2025 at 2:49 PM
Just announced: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi will deliver a keynote (virtually) at our Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference on Monday morning. carnegieendowment.org/events/2024/...
Reposted by Ian Bowers
🇩🇰Danish shipping giant Maersk apparently has offered Danish defence shipbuilding capacity in South Korea for the new air defence frigates. The hulls could be built in 🇰🇷South Korea and then fully assembled and equipped in Denmark to speed up the proces.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Mærsk vil hjælpe Forsvaret med at sætte turbo på fregatbyggeri
Rederigiganten tilbyder ifølge DR Nyheders oplysninger at hjælpe Danmark gennem selskabets værft i Sydkorea.
www.dr.dk
April 5, 2025 at 8:05 AM
🇩🇰Danish shipping giant Maersk apparently has offered Danish defence shipbuilding capacity in South Korea for the new air defence frigates. The hulls could be built in 🇰🇷South Korea and then fully assembled and equipped in Denmark to speed up the proces.
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
www.dr.dk/nyheder/indl...
Reposted by Ian Bowers
ONP Doctoral Research Fellow @frhoffmann.bsky.social, together with @marksbell.bsky.social, has published a new article in Foreign Affairs examining the implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the European continent for European nuclear deterrence.
New piece out in @foreignaffairs.com by @marksbell.bsky.social and me.
We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma.
Access the full piece via this link:
www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ...
Short summary below:
1/x
We argue that as the USA pulls back from Europe, including its nuclear arsenal, European leaders face a nuclear trilemma.
Access the full piece via this link:
www.foreignaffairs.com/europe/europ...
Short summary below:
1/x
Europe’s Nuclear Trilemma
The difficult and dangerous options for post-American deterrence.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 1, 2025 at 8:25 AM
ONP Doctoral Research Fellow @frhoffmann.bsky.social, together with @marksbell.bsky.social, has published a new article in Foreign Affairs examining the implications of a U.S. withdrawal from the European continent for European nuclear deterrence.
Reposted by Ian Bowers
An important finding. "...officials from several European countries on the North Sea and Baltic Sea told Recorded Future News there is increasing confidence among their governments that the incidents were accidental and not directed by the Kremlin." therecord.media/european-off...
European officials increasingly certain Baltic Sea cable breaks are accidental, not sabotage
Officials from several European countries on the North Sea and Baltic Sea said there is increasing confidence that a series of submarine cable breaks were accidental and not directed by the Kremlin.
therecord.media
March 28, 2025 at 2:06 PM
An important finding. "...officials from several European countries on the North Sea and Baltic Sea told Recorded Future News there is increasing confidence among their governments that the incidents were accidental and not directed by the Kremlin." therecord.media/european-off...
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Velkommen til bokbad på Litteraturhuset! 📖
23. april, kl. 15.30 lanseres boken "Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry".
Meld deg på her👇
23. april, kl. 15.30 lanseres boken "Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry".
Meld deg på her👇
Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry
Boklansering: Hvordan former supermaktrivaliseringen mellom Kina og USA vår tid – er vi på vei mot en ny kald krig, eller er dette noe helt annet?
www.forsvaret.no
March 27, 2025 at 1:40 PM
Velkommen til bokbad på Litteraturhuset! 📖
23. april, kl. 15.30 lanseres boken "Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry".
Meld deg på her👇
23. april, kl. 15.30 lanseres boken "Not Just Another Cold War – The Implications of the US-China Rivalry".
Meld deg på her👇
This would seem to be a sub-optimal result for long-term US strategic goals towards China (assuming long-term thinking is still a consideration in Washington). 🤦♂️
China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape
South Korea’s Industry Minister Ahn Duk-geun will host the meeting with Japan’s Yoji Muto and China’s Wang Wentao.
www.japantimes.co.jp
March 27, 2025 at 11:23 AM
This would seem to be a sub-optimal result for long-term US strategic goals towards China (assuming long-term thinking is still a consideration in Washington). 🤦♂️
China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
China, Japan, South Korea to meet as Trump tariffs take shape www.japantimes.co.jp/business/202...
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Tomorrow, Norwegian F-35s will escort American B-52 Stratofortress over Eastern Norway. The aircraft will make a low pass over Oslo city centre at 12:00 noon. The flight is part of normal training activities and gives Norwegian and US forces vital training. #StrongerTogether #WeAreNATO
B-52 Stratofortress to pass over Oslo
On Friday, Norwegian F-35s will escort American B-52 Stratofortress in the airspace over Eastern Norway. The aircraft will fly at low altitude over Akershus Fortress in Oslo at 12:00 noon. The flight ...
www.forsvaret.no
March 13, 2025 at 1:29 PM
Tomorrow, Norwegian F-35s will escort American B-52 Stratofortress over Eastern Norway. The aircraft will make a low pass over Oslo city centre at 12:00 noon. The flight is part of normal training activities and gives Norwegian and US forces vital training. #StrongerTogether #WeAreNATO
This is a solid argument for a French/Anglo-French European extended nuclear deterrent.
Coming round to the view that a French/Anglo-French extended deterrence system is the best option vs. continued reliance on an inconstant US, or opening the door to European (and global) nuclear proliferation.
March 12, 2025 at 4:40 PM
This is a solid argument for a French/Anglo-French European extended nuclear deterrent.
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Coming round to the view that a French/Anglo-French extended deterrence system is the best option vs. continued reliance on an inconstant US, or opening the door to European (and global) nuclear proliferation.
March 12, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Coming round to the view that a French/Anglo-French extended deterrence system is the best option vs. continued reliance on an inconstant US, or opening the door to European (and global) nuclear proliferation.
Reposted by Ian Bowers
A mother & son in Ukraine 🇺🇦, 1993 vs. 2025.
Whose side are we on, America🇺🇸?
Whose side are we on, America🇺🇸?
March 11, 2025 at 1:27 AM
A mother & son in Ukraine 🇺🇦, 1993 vs. 2025.
Whose side are we on, America🇺🇸?
Whose side are we on, America🇺🇸?
Reposted by Ian Bowers
In a "quiet but seismic recalibration," Trump has rolled back constraints on American commanders to authorize airstrikes & special operation raids outside conventional battlefields, broadening the range of people who can be targeted according to US officials with knowledge of the policy shift
Trump eases rules on military raids and airstrikes, expanding range of who can be targeted
The increase in the range of people who can be targeted by the U.S. military dismantles Biden-era mandates that included more safeguards.
www.cbsnews.com
February 28, 2025 at 12:18 AM
In a "quiet but seismic recalibration," Trump has rolled back constraints on American commanders to authorize airstrikes & special operation raids outside conventional battlefields, broadening the range of people who can be targeted according to US officials with knowledge of the policy shift
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Reposted by Ian Bowers
📆Happening tomorrow, Feb. 25, 9-10am.
❓How should Europe engage with Russia amid its ongoing war with Ukraine?
☢️Join us in Oslo for a timely panel discussion with experts from the Peace Research Institute Oslo & ONP.
Learn more and register ➡️ prio.org/events/9215
❓How should Europe engage with Russia amid its ongoing war with Ukraine?
☢️Join us in Oslo for a timely panel discussion with experts from the Peace Research Institute Oslo & ONP.
Learn more and register ➡️ prio.org/events/9215
Managing Europe's Long-Term Relations with Russia – Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
This seminar explores strategies for shaping future security dynamics between Europe and Russia, focusing on arms control, policies and diplomatic init ...
prio.org
February 24, 2025 at 9:32 AM
📆Happening tomorrow, Feb. 25, 9-10am.
❓How should Europe engage with Russia amid its ongoing war with Ukraine?
☢️Join us in Oslo for a timely panel discussion with experts from the Peace Research Institute Oslo & ONP.
Learn more and register ➡️ prio.org/events/9215
❓How should Europe engage with Russia amid its ongoing war with Ukraine?
☢️Join us in Oslo for a timely panel discussion with experts from the Peace Research Institute Oslo & ONP.
Learn more and register ➡️ prio.org/events/9215
Reposted by Ian Bowers
French Navy aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) coming into Subic Bay - February 21, 2025 #fscharlesdegaulle #r91
SRC: TW-@MarieFontanelPH
SRC: TW-@MarieFontanelPH
February 22, 2025 at 1:39 PM
French Navy aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) coming into Subic Bay - February 21, 2025 #fscharlesdegaulle #r91
SRC: TW-@MarieFontanelPH
SRC: TW-@MarieFontanelPH
Reposted by Ian Bowers
I’d like to think I’m the first person to get into a flame war with VPOTUS from the swimming pool of Woburn Center Parcs at half-term.
The VP is posting through it. (Good for @shashj.bsky.social for hitting a nerve.)
February 21, 2025 at 8:01 PM
I’d like to think I’m the first person to get into a flame war with VPOTUS from the swimming pool of Woburn Center Parcs at half-term.
Reposted by Ian Bowers
Want to live in New Zealand and work with me? ejye.fa.ap1.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
Pūkenga | Lecturer in International Relations/International Security
Join our Political Science and International Relations Programme in this permanent, full-time role.
ejye.fa.ap1.oraclecloud.com
February 20, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Want to live in New Zealand and work with me? ejye.fa.ap1.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
Reposted by Ian Bowers
(Paywalled article) NATOs third CAOC will be established in Norway and the Norwegian government has to decide on the location by the end of February.
There are two candidates:
Alongside Joint HQ outside Bodø but the mountain facility is at capacity.
Rygge, with an empty hardened site.
There are two candidates:
Alongside Joint HQ outside Bodø but the mountain facility is at capacity.
Rygge, with an empty hardened site.
February 13, 2025 at 3:26 PM
(Paywalled article) NATOs third CAOC will be established in Norway and the Norwegian government has to decide on the location by the end of February.
There are two candidates:
Alongside Joint HQ outside Bodø but the mountain facility is at capacity.
Rygge, with an empty hardened site.
There are two candidates:
Alongside Joint HQ outside Bodø but the mountain facility is at capacity.
Rygge, with an empty hardened site.