Herb Susmann
@herbps10.bsky.social
Post-doc at NYU Grossman School of Medicine (this account is solely in my personal capacity, all views are my own etc). Non-parametric statistics, causal inference, Bayesian methods. Herbsusmann.com
The "basic" notions of semiparametric theory, from today's arxiv.org/abs/2510.18843 from Morzywolek, Gilbert, & Luedtke
October 22, 2025 at 2:47 PM
The "basic" notions of semiparametric theory, from today's arxiv.org/abs/2510.18843 from Morzywolek, Gilbert, & Luedtke
great great plenty of time to procrastinate on this
October 17, 2025 at 12:53 AM
great great plenty of time to procrastinate on this
Ideally letters wouldn't be required at all, but I'd settle for them only being required at a much later stage of the process after the first stage of review
October 16, 2025 at 3:06 PM
Ideally letters wouldn't be required at all, but I'd settle for them only being required at a much later stage of the process after the first stage of review
State of the stats job market:
here's the cumulative number of stats tenure-track jobs posted on the UF Statistics Job Board so far, since August
#statsky
here's the cumulative number of stats tenure-track jobs posted on the UF Statistics Job Board so far, since August
#statsky
October 11, 2025 at 9:12 PM
State of the stats job market:
here's the cumulative number of stats tenure-track jobs posted on the UF Statistics Job Board so far, since August
#statsky
here's the cumulative number of stats tenure-track jobs posted on the UF Statistics Job Board so far, since August
#statsky
Reposted by Herb Susmann
I love living in a city full of immigrants and tons and tons of people who are not at all like me and not like each other. It makes us all better and it makes our city better. I know I’m preaching to the choir by saying this on the lib app but I sometimes just get so overwhelmed by how special it is
October 8, 2025 at 12:35 AM
I love living in a city full of immigrants and tons and tons of people who are not at all like me and not like each other. It makes us all better and it makes our city better. I know I’m preaching to the choir by saying this on the lib app but I sometimes just get so overwhelmed by how special it is
New preprint out on a way to handle structural and practical violations of the overlap (also known as positivity) assumption in causal inference -- as long as the outcome is bounded, we derive simple partial identification bounds on the ATE. With @alecmcclean.bsky.social and @idiaz.bsky.social
September 25, 2025 at 5:23 PM
New preprint out on a way to handle structural and practical violations of the overlap (also known as positivity) assumption in causal inference -- as long as the outcome is bounded, we derive simple partial identification bounds on the ATE. With @alecmcclean.bsky.social and @idiaz.bsky.social
I have a new paper out on a simple way to do causal inference with left-censored outcomes. This comes up with environmental data because measurements often have a lower limit of detection -- e.g. a chemical is undetectable below a certain level
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Non-parametric treatment effect bounds for left-censored outcomes: estimating the effect of herbicide use on 2,4-D exposure
Causal inference is concerned with defining and estimating the effect of a exposure on an outcome. For example, the Average Treatment Effect (ATE), a causal inference concept, is defined as the pop...
www.tandfonline.com
September 3, 2025 at 3:07 PM
I have a new paper out on a simple way to do causal inference with left-censored outcomes. This comes up with environmental data because measurements often have a lower limit of detection -- e.g. a chemical is undetectable below a certain level
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
if you are also in the niche position of needing to run a lot of simulation studies in R on slurm clusters, I have just the thing for you: github.com/herbps10/sim...
August 26, 2025 at 10:09 PM
if you are also in the niche position of needing to run a lot of simulation studies in R on slurm clusters, I have just the thing for you: github.com/herbps10/sim...
Reposted by Herb Susmann
Protect transgender scientist! 🏳️⚧️
Protect transgender scientists
Transgender and gender nonconforming (TGnC) people are a primary target of the Trump administration. Multiple executive orders seek to erase TGnC protections; mandate denial of gender identity; and ba...
www.science.org
June 19, 2025 at 6:28 PM
Protect transgender scientist! 🏳️⚧️
Just published: Antoine Chambaz and I did the formal work to prove you can use Super Learner (also known as model stacking) for estimating quantiles, both in i.i.d. and streaming data settings
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Quantile Super Learning for independent and online settings with application to solar power forecasting
Estimating quantiles of an outcome conditional on covariates is of fundamental interest in statistics with broad application in probabilistic predicti…
www.sciencedirect.com
May 13, 2025 at 6:20 PM
Just published: Antoine Chambaz and I did the formal work to prove you can use Super Learner (also known as model stacking) for estimating quantiles, both in i.i.d. and streaming data settings
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
Reposted by Herb Susmann
The placement of "trans issues" here is, without exaggeration, one of the most depraved things I've ever seen in the pages of this publication.
Of course the NYT sees the "DEI" stuff positively & is neutral on anti-trans discrimination
March 1, 2025 at 3:59 PM
The placement of "trans issues" here is, without exaggeration, one of the most depraved things I've ever seen in the pages of this publication.
Reposted by Herb Susmann
The DHS Program is officially done. As I tell my statistics students, good data is ESSENTIAL to improve the world. We can’t make things better if we don’t know the current state of things. No new DHS data collection is an incalculable loss.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/h...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/h...
February 27, 2025 at 1:30 AM
The DHS Program is officially done. As I tell my statistics students, good data is ESSENTIAL to improve the world. We can’t make things better if we don’t know the current state of things. No new DHS data collection is an incalculable loss.
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/h...
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/26/h...
leading off my working group talk with the traveling quack to remind everyone the healthy level of skepticism they should be bringing to the table
January 16, 2025 at 7:11 PM
leading off my working group talk with the traveling quack to remind everyone the healthy level of skepticism they should be bringing to the table
Looking forward to digging into this, new on ArXiv today: arxiv.org/pdf/2501.06024
January 13, 2025 at 4:49 PM
Looking forward to digging into this, new on ArXiv today: arxiv.org/pdf/2501.06024
This is a really nice and thought provoking preprint, and I think this point is largely true, and related to how strict causal inference is designed to estimate the effect of causes, but not causes of effects (or "reverse causation" as it's sometimes called www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/rese...)
January 8, 2025 at 9:21 PM
This is a really nice and thought provoking preprint, and I think this point is largely true, and related to how strict causal inference is designed to estimate the effect of causes, but not causes of effects (or "reverse causation" as it's sometimes called www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/rese...)
This is an interesting article, and reading it made me wonder what role causal inference has in an alternative epidemiology. Causal inference gives us some nice estimators of e.g. health effects of industrial hog plants on communities, but is that really what is needed, rather than political action?
December 28, 2024 at 5:14 PM
This is an interesting article, and reading it made me wonder what role causal inference has in an alternative epidemiology. Causal inference gives us some nice estimators of e.g. health effects of industrial hog plants on communities, but is that really what is needed, rather than political action?
Nice commentary summarizing some issues with non-parametric Bayes, a big one being that in practice you often end up having to place priors on very abstract objects rather than on the things you may actually have prior information about
projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...
projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...
December 28, 2024 at 3:37 PM
Nice commentary summarizing some issues with non-parametric Bayes, a big one being that in practice you often end up having to place priors on very abstract objects rather than on the things you may actually have prior information about
projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...
projecteuclid.org/journals/bay...
Reposted by Herb Susmann
New-ish paper alert! arxiv.org/abs/2410.13522
We tackle the challenge of comparing multiple treatments when some subjects have zero prob. of receiving certain treatments. Eg, provider profiling: comparing hospitals (the “treatments”) for patient outcomes. Positivity violations are everywhere.
We tackle the challenge of comparing multiple treatments when some subjects have zero prob. of receiving certain treatments. Eg, provider profiling: comparing hospitals (the “treatments”) for patient outcomes. Positivity violations are everywhere.
Fair comparisons of causal parameters with many treatments and positivity violations
Comparing outcomes across treatments is essential in medicine and public policy. To do so, researchers typically estimate a set of parameters, possibly counterfactual, with each targeting a different ...
arxiv.org
December 13, 2024 at 11:17 PM
New-ish paper alert! arxiv.org/abs/2410.13522
We tackle the challenge of comparing multiple treatments when some subjects have zero prob. of receiving certain treatments. Eg, provider profiling: comparing hospitals (the “treatments”) for patient outcomes. Positivity violations are everywhere.
We tackle the challenge of comparing multiple treatments when some subjects have zero prob. of receiving certain treatments. Eg, provider profiling: comparing hospitals (the “treatments”) for patient outcomes. Positivity violations are everywhere.
New article out -- we combined ensemble learning and adaptive conformal inference to predict emergency department arrivals in Île-de-France and provide well-calibrated prediction intervals authors.elsevier.com/a/1kEg-4xGJ-...
authors.elsevier.com
December 9, 2024 at 7:56 PM
New article out -- we combined ensemble learning and adaptive conformal inference to predict emergency department arrivals in Île-de-France and provide well-calibrated prediction intervals authors.elsevier.com/a/1kEg-4xGJ-...
I started a list of articles, books, and tutorials (with BibTex!) for learning the semi-parametric efficiency theory relevant to causal inference: herbsusmann.com/2024/11/05/r...
What have I missed? 🤔
What have I missed? 🤔
Resources for Learning Semi-parametric Theory | Herb Susmann
herbsusmann.com
November 27, 2024 at 8:35 PM
I started a list of articles, books, and tutorials (with BibTex!) for learning the semi-parametric efficiency theory relevant to causal inference: herbsusmann.com/2024/11/05/r...
What have I missed? 🤔
What have I missed? 🤔