Harry Carr
@harrydcarr.bsky.social
Pollster/wonk/data journalist. Feminist who thinks what we tell boys about being men explains a lot. Still an Atlanticist. Dan Burn is an excellent left back in the right system.
Reposted by Harry Carr
Work-from-home increases birth rates, but firms seem to hate it. So despite a pro-fertility coalition growing in US politics, no politicians openly supports work from home
www.nber.org/papers/w30569
via Mike Konczal
www.nber.org/papers/w30569
via Mike Konczal
The Covid-19 Baby Bump: The Unexpected Increase in U.S. Fertility Rates in Response to the Pandemic
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
www.nber.org
October 26, 2025 at 5:09 PM
Work-from-home increases birth rates, but firms seem to hate it. So despite a pro-fertility coalition growing in US politics, no politicians openly supports work from home
www.nber.org/papers/w30569
via Mike Konczal
www.nber.org/papers/w30569
via Mike Konczal
Reposted by Harry Carr
Why would they believe that? Their problem has been that the consensus that racism is bad created a social cost for them. They hd to be careful whom they spoke to; a reputation for racism could be ruinous. Even in my lifetime that wasn’t always true. People worked hard to build that consensus. /3
September 15, 2025 at 4:33 PM
Why would they believe that? Their problem has been that the consensus that racism is bad created a social cost for them. They hd to be careful whom they spoke to; a reputation for racism could be ruinous. Even in my lifetime that wasn’t always true. People worked hard to build that consensus. /3
Reposted by Harry Carr
There is a serious failure in UK govt, politics & media to take sufficiently seriously what Musk said & meant with "fight back or die"
= Violence (interethnic civil war) is inevitable so pre-emptive violence - vs migrants, minorities & political opponents - is necessary to avoid existential erasure
= Violence (interethnic civil war) is inevitable so pre-emptive violence - vs migrants, minorities & political opponents - is necessary to avoid existential erasure
The common sense meaning should make this Elon Musk's "rivers of blood" moment
Though I think he goes further than Enoch Powell in a couple of important ways
Though I think he goes further than Enoch Powell in a couple of important ways
Elon Musk spoke by video to Tommy Robinson's anti-immigrant rally in the UK today.
"You're in a fundamental situation here where, whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you," said Musk. "You either fight back or you die."
"You're in a fundamental situation here where, whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming to you," said Musk. "You either fight back or you die."
September 14, 2025 at 6:21 PM
There is a serious failure in UK govt, politics & media to take sufficiently seriously what Musk said & meant with "fight back or die"
= Violence (interethnic civil war) is inevitable so pre-emptive violence - vs migrants, minorities & political opponents - is necessary to avoid existential erasure
= Violence (interethnic civil war) is inevitable so pre-emptive violence - vs migrants, minorities & political opponents - is necessary to avoid existential erasure
Reposted by Harry Carr
Again, I really do have concerns about exactly how Justin Webb is acquiring his knowledge of US politics or what prompted him to make this exact point.
Justin Webb just referred on Today to "platforms like Bluesky, where you can see the celebration of the killing" of Charlie Kirk.
What I'm seeing on here is overwhelming condemnation; despair at the violence of US politics; alarm at where this might go; & calls for equal horror at other shootings.
What I'm seeing on here is overwhelming condemnation; despair at the violence of US politics; alarm at where this might go; & calls for equal horror at other shootings.
September 11, 2025 at 7:41 AM
Again, I really do have concerns about exactly how Justin Webb is acquiring his knowledge of US politics or what prompted him to make this exact point.
Reposted by Harry Carr
I increasingly wonder if this is down to so many government people still using X and mistaking that for an actual measure of public opinion.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that British voters don't like small boats but they hate street violence and open racism much more.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that British voters don't like small boats but they hate street violence and open racism much more.
September 10, 2025 at 1:22 PM
I increasingly wonder if this is down to so many government people still using X and mistaking that for an actual measure of public opinion.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that British voters don't like small boats but they hate street violence and open racism much more.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that British voters don't like small boats but they hate street violence and open racism much more.
Reposted by Harry Carr
Sir Robert Worcester, legendary pollster and founder of MORI (now Ipsos UK) has died at 91. He taught so many people so much about the value and importance of opinion polls in modern democracies - everyone in our industry and politics owes him a debt of gratitude.
September 10, 2025 at 7:15 AM
Sir Robert Worcester, legendary pollster and founder of MORI (now Ipsos UK) has died at 91. He taught so many people so much about the value and importance of opinion polls in modern democracies - everyone in our industry and politics owes him a debt of gratitude.
yeah this does not bode well either for this season or for next summer (or indeed January). Need to start preparing dickhead-mitigation plans for each transfer window in the same way you do for players going off to afcon
September 2, 2025 at 10:51 AM
yeah this does not bode well either for this season or for next summer (or indeed January). Need to start preparing dickhead-mitigation plans for each transfer window in the same way you do for players going off to afcon
What a strange comparison. “£3bn, or half the suspiciously large GDP of a small island with roughly the population of Lowestoft” www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
September 2, 2025 at 9:10 AM
What a strange comparison. “£3bn, or half the suspiciously large GDP of a small island with roughly the population of Lowestoft” www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...
Reposted by Harry Carr
I think an underestimated factor behind the rise of open, old fashioned racism on the right is the legitimation of blood and soil nationalism by well-meaning but myopic parts of the identity politics left
Of all the strange interactions I've ever had on social media
A British person telling me that chicken ticket masala is British cuisine is really really high up there.
A British person telling me that chicken ticket masala is British cuisine is really really high up there.
September 1, 2025 at 8:28 AM
I think an underestimated factor behind the rise of open, old fashioned racism on the right is the legitimation of blood and soil nationalism by well-meaning but myopic parts of the identity politics left
Season killer unless, a la Woltemade, his/Wilson’s replacement is already on the plane to Newcastle and we just don’t know about it yet. Disastrous long term either way. Dreadful, embarrassing decision making at the highest level throughout, publicly shitting the bed for the second summer in a row.
If he means it, let him rot. As with parenting young children, you can’t have the message be act like a dickhead and you get what you want, or you’ll end up with a bunch more dickheadery
I would be willing to take a pretty hefty financial hit to let him rot for a year (esp if we can get Jackson + Wissa or equivalent within PSR) & refuse to a PL rival. Sends a message to both clubs and players that we won’t be fucked around with that may well save more money in the long run
September 1, 2025 at 5:23 AM
Season killer unless, a la Woltemade, his/Wilson’s replacement is already on the plane to Newcastle and we just don’t know about it yet. Disastrous long term either way. Dreadful, embarrassing decision making at the highest level throughout, publicly shitting the bed for the second summer in a row.
Crazy number of England flags around Solihull. Nice to see the area *really* into women’s rugby
August 31, 2025 at 2:58 PM
Crazy number of England flags around Solihull. Nice to see the area *really* into women’s rugby
If he means it, let him rot. As with parenting young children, you can’t have the message be act like a dickhead and you get what you want, or you’ll end up with a bunch more dickheadery
I would be willing to take a pretty hefty financial hit to let him rot for a year (esp if we can get Jackson + Wissa or equivalent within PSR) & refuse to a PL rival. Sends a message to both clubs and players that we won’t be fucked around with that may well save more money in the long run
August 12, 2025 at 8:19 AM
If he means it, let him rot. As with parenting young children, you can’t have the message be act like a dickhead and you get what you want, or you’ll end up with a bunch more dickheadery
A lot of replies here telling on themselves on what they think feminism is. A genuine parallel of feminism for men would be an extremely good thing
In the same way that Trump II is affirmative action but for white people, I suspect the next few years are going to see a repackaging of feminist theory but for men.
August 2, 2025 at 3:38 PM
A lot of replies here telling on themselves on what they think feminism is. A genuine parallel of feminism for men would be an extremely good thing
Reposted by Harry Carr
Others have noted that this means foreign-born people are LESS likely than UK-born people to be in prison. What I want to note is that The Times is now referring to foreign-born UK citizens as ‘foreigners’. This includes Boris Johnson, Sir Mo Farah, Emma Watson, Rory Stewart and little old me.
August 1, 2025 at 7:59 AM
Others have noted that this means foreign-born people are LESS likely than UK-born people to be in prison. What I want to note is that The Times is now referring to foreign-born UK citizens as ‘foreigners’. This includes Boris Johnson, Sir Mo Farah, Emma Watson, Rory Stewart and little old me.
Reposted by Harry Carr
Great as always from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com. Fits with my general feeling that it’s not enough to point at a graph and tell the public “I think you’ll find”, if they are witnessing certain types of crime rising without consequence. (Also as ever it depends on where you are)
on.ft.com/4mq2HbL
on.ft.com/4mq2HbL
The great crime paradox
Disorder is rising in public consciousness. Is it rising in reality?
on.ft.com
August 1, 2025 at 6:37 AM
Great as always from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com. Fits with my general feeling that it’s not enough to point at a graph and tell the public “I think you’ll find”, if they are witnessing certain types of crime rising without consequence. (Also as ever it depends on where you are)
on.ft.com/4mq2HbL
on.ft.com/4mq2HbL
This is very good. The Boomer idea that Millennials could buy a house if they only quit their avocado and coffee habits is understandable, because it *was true* for them. They did have to scrimp and save to buy them; they earned far less! It’s just scrimping & saving nowadays doesn’t touch the sides
July 30, 2025 at 8:26 AM
This is very good. The Boomer idea that Millennials could buy a house if they only quit their avocado and coffee habits is understandable, because it *was true* for them. They did have to scrimp and save to buy them; they earned far less! It’s just scrimping & saving nowadays doesn’t touch the sides
Reposted by Harry Carr
Are you watching Rupert Lowe, Matthew Goodwin, Konstantin Kisin? Your theories took a hell of a beating!
July 22, 2025 at 9:41 PM
Are you watching Rupert Lowe, Matthew Goodwin, Konstantin Kisin? Your theories took a hell of a beating!
Idk if this was a guy venting about women in an equivalent way it would rightly be called out as sexist.
July 20, 2025 at 9:04 AM
Idk if this was a guy venting about women in an equivalent way it would rightly be called out as sexist.
As someone on the high functioning borders of this, I feel happy for people who feel validated or that they understand themselves better or accessed help through diagnosis, but I do worry if there are negative impacts too both for those diagnosed & folks with less labelable neurodiverse tendencies
oh
oh no
oh no
July 18, 2025 at 1:01 PM
As someone on the high functioning borders of this, I feel happy for people who feel validated or that they understand themselves better or accessed help through diagnosis, but I do worry if there are negative impacts too both for those diagnosed & folks with less labelable neurodiverse tendencies
True or false: Grant Shapps?
July 18, 2025 at 7:54 AM
True or false: Grant Shapps?
TIL a) Blavatnik school of government at Oxford is realllly pretty, b) seagulls are massive arseholes who randomly like dropping rocks on skylights
July 11, 2025 at 7:24 PM
TIL a) Blavatnik school of government at Oxford is realllly pretty, b) seagulls are massive arseholes who randomly like dropping rocks on skylights
Reposted by Harry Carr
Absolutely incredible graphic from 1880 tracing the history of political parties in the United States.
July 6, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Absolutely incredible graphic from 1880 tracing the history of political parties in the United States.
