Pierre Habbard
@habbard.bsky.social
Public policy & advocacy - policyhive.org
ESG & responsible finance / Economic policy & governance / Int’l cooperation & development. Paris.
ESG & responsible finance / Economic policy & governance / Int’l cooperation & development. Paris.
While household income remains under pressure. The picture is definitely of concern when looking at recent reports on individual givings to charities.
June 17, 2025 at 8:35 AM
While household income remains under pressure. The picture is definitely of concern when looking at recent reports on individual givings to charities.
Private foundations’ foreign aid flows have been stagnating since 2021
June 17, 2025 at 8:34 AM
Private foundations’ foreign aid flows have been stagnating since 2021
Between 2024 & 2026, ODA is expected to decrease by -20% / USD48bn.
June 17, 2025 at 8:32 AM
Between 2024 & 2026, ODA is expected to decrease by -20% / USD48bn.
Recap of the main downside risk scenarios listed in recent IMF, WB, OECD & UN DESA global economic outlook reports.
May 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Recap of the main downside risk scenarios listed in recent IMF, WB, OECD & UN DESA global economic outlook reports.
USAID shutdown will have dramatic consequences, for ODA flows overall (28% of total OECD countries' ODA in 2021), and for NGOs in particular: 20% of USAID funds (+USD8bn in 2021) were delivered via NGOs, highest rate among the top funders (Nordics excl).
data : one.oecd.org/document/DCD...
data : one.oecd.org/document/DCD...
February 17, 2025 at 12:19 PM
USAID shutdown will have dramatic consequences, for ODA flows overall (28% of total OECD countries' ODA in 2021), and for NGOs in particular: 20% of USAID funds (+USD8bn in 2021) were delivered via NGOs, highest rate among the top funders (Nordics excl).
data : one.oecd.org/document/DCD...
data : one.oecd.org/document/DCD...
Pension pre-funding remains an Anglo-American matter, and by far. US, CAN, AUS & UK pension funds account for +83% of total pension assets in OECD countries. (source: www.oecd.org/en/publicati... )
December 10, 2024 at 10:40 AM
Pension pre-funding remains an Anglo-American matter, and by far. US, CAN, AUS & UK pension funds account for +83% of total pension assets in OECD countries. (source: www.oecd.org/en/publicati... )
France used to be a low-growth-but-low-inequality country. This is over. Growth prospects remain low, but inequality - & poverty - are on the rise since 2017. There are the classic middle class squeezing and working poor issues, but there definitely is a Top 1% feast⬇️ (source: wid.world)
November 29, 2024 at 2:39 PM
France used to be a low-growth-but-low-inequality country. This is over. Growth prospects remain low, but inequality - & poverty - are on the rise since 2017. There are the classic middle class squeezing and working poor issues, but there definitely is a Top 1% feast⬇️ (source: wid.world)
Spotted in IMF Oct WEO www.imf.org/en/Publicati... Of 3 downside risk scenarios 2025-2030:
👉 trade protectionism
👉 lower immigration
👉 tighter financial conditions
Lower immigration scenario has largest negative GDP impact for the US (& by far). For Europe, it's a close tie with trade protectionism.
👉 trade protectionism
👉 lower immigration
👉 tighter financial conditions
Lower immigration scenario has largest negative GDP impact for the US (& by far). For Europe, it's a close tie with trade protectionism.
November 18, 2024 at 11:18 AM
Spotted in IMF Oct WEO www.imf.org/en/Publicati... Of 3 downside risk scenarios 2025-2030:
👉 trade protectionism
👉 lower immigration
👉 tighter financial conditions
Lower immigration scenario has largest negative GDP impact for the US (& by far). For Europe, it's a close tie with trade protectionism.
👉 trade protectionism
👉 lower immigration
👉 tighter financial conditions
Lower immigration scenario has largest negative GDP impact for the US (& by far). For Europe, it's a close tie with trade protectionism.
Les dépenses fiscales sont incluses. Pour les isoler, il faut regarder une autre classification stat, celle par type de transactions. Les subventions (dont les dépenses fiscales, et notamment le CICE) sont alors bien supérieures à la moyenne UE.⬇️
July 19, 2024 at 10:36 AM
Les dépenses fiscales sont incluses. Pour les isoler, il faut regarder une autre classification stat, celle par type de transactions. Les subventions (dont les dépenses fiscales, et notamment le CICE) sont alors bien supérieures à la moyenne UE.⬇️
Another way to look at it: comparing gvt expenditures by transactions, France vs the EU weighted average (EU OECD Member states).
➡️ Social benefits & public workforce account for 3/4 of the difference
➡️Relative to EU averages, France also spends far more in "other expenditures" and in "subsidies"
➡️ Social benefits & public workforce account for 3/4 of the difference
➡️Relative to EU averages, France also spends far more in "other expenditures" and in "subsidies"
July 18, 2024 at 10:00 AM
Another way to look at it: comparing gvt expenditures by transactions, France vs the EU weighted average (EU OECD Member states).
➡️ Social benefits & public workforce account for 3/4 of the difference
➡️Relative to EU averages, France also spends far more in "other expenditures" and in "subsidies"
➡️ Social benefits & public workforce account for 3/4 of the difference
➡️Relative to EU averages, France also spends far more in "other expenditures" and in "subsidies"
Excluding social protection (given the specifics of the FR model: almost 100% public PAYG system, with residual role for private / pre-funding pension schemes), France (34.3% of GDP) falls back in the "ranking" compared to the EU average (31%) but still in the top group.
July 18, 2024 at 8:48 AM
Excluding social protection (given the specifics of the FR model: almost 100% public PAYG system, with residual role for private / pre-funding pension schemes), France (34.3% of GDP) falls back in the "ranking" compared to the EU average (31%) but still in the top group.
France exceeds the (unweighted) EU average by +7.5% of GDP.
➡️Over half of it is due to the French social protection model (+4.2%).
➡️Almost two thirds, social protection & health systems combined (+5.4%).
➡️Over half of it is due to the French social protection model (+4.2%).
➡️Almost two thirds, social protection & health systems combined (+5.4%).
July 18, 2024 at 8:36 AM
France exceeds the (unweighted) EU average by +7.5% of GDP.
➡️Over half of it is due to the French social protection model (+4.2%).
➡️Almost two thirds, social protection & health systems combined (+5.4%).
➡️Over half of it is due to the French social protection model (+4.2%).
➡️Almost two thirds, social protection & health systems combined (+5.4%).
France has a record level of gvt expenditures, equivalent to 59% of GDP. Nb 1 among advanced economies. A key matter in French politics - for supporters of massive cuts in French public spending. #econsky
What explains this level?⬇️
What explains this level?⬇️
July 18, 2024 at 8:22 AM
France has a record level of gvt expenditures, equivalent to 59% of GDP. Nb 1 among advanced economies. A key matter in French politics - for supporters of massive cuts in French public spending. #econsky
What explains this level?⬇️
What explains this level?⬇️
Gross household disposable income across OECD economies 2012-2022. Households paying the bill of the inflation burst in 2022, similar to the post-GFC austerity turn in 2012-2014.
Data source: data.oecd.org/hha/househol... #econ
Data source: data.oecd.org/hha/househol... #econ
June 4, 2024 at 8:30 AM
Gross household disposable income across OECD economies 2012-2022. Households paying the bill of the inflation burst in 2022, similar to the post-GFC austerity turn in 2012-2014.
Data source: data.oecd.org/hha/househol... #econ
Data source: data.oecd.org/hha/househol... #econ
GDP forecasts 2023-2029 compared to 2010-2019 average.
➡️ lower growth prospects
➡️ China slowdown
➡️ US-EU growth gap
#econ
Source: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
➡️ lower growth prospects
➡️ China slowdown
➡️ US-EU growth gap
#econ
Source: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
June 3, 2024 at 6:15 PM
GDP forecasts 2023-2029 compared to 2010-2019 average.
➡️ lower growth prospects
➡️ China slowdown
➡️ US-EU growth gap
#econ
Source: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
➡️ lower growth prospects
➡️ China slowdown
➡️ US-EU growth gap
#econ
Source: www.imf.org/en/Publicati...
The rise in interest rates isn't necessarily bad news for DB pension funds' financial sustainability. When the discount rate is tied to mkt-based interest rates and liabilities fall faster than assets, funding ratios are in fact improving. Case of the UK and the Ned. > www.oecd.org/publications...
January 5, 2024 at 1:14 PM
The rise in interest rates isn't necessarily bad news for DB pension funds' financial sustainability. When the discount rate is tied to mkt-based interest rates and liabilities fall faster than assets, funding ratios are in fact improving. Case of the UK and the Ned. > www.oecd.org/publications...
The story of the "squeezed middle class" has been largely documented. Since the Baby boomers generation, each successive generation has obtained lower incomes than the preceding. Generation “Z” (born after 2003) is on track to follow the path of pre-WWII generations. www.oecd.org/els/under-pr...
December 27, 2023 at 12:18 PM
The story of the "squeezed middle class" has been largely documented. Since the Baby boomers generation, each successive generation has obtained lower incomes than the preceding. Generation “Z” (born after 2003) is on track to follow the path of pre-WWII generations. www.oecd.org/els/under-pr...
The 7 families of middle classes (OECD definition: 75%-200% of median income www.oecd.org/els/under-pr... ): Common Law countries, Continental Europe, “Advanced” East Asia, The Mediterranean, Eastern Europe, Emerging countries, & the “Happy few” (Norway, Switzerland, Singapore)
December 27, 2023 at 12:04 PM
The 7 families of middle classes (OECD definition: 75%-200% of median income www.oecd.org/els/under-pr... ): Common Law countries, Continental Europe, “Advanced” East Asia, The Mediterranean, Eastern Europe, Emerging countries, & the “Happy few” (Norway, Switzerland, Singapore)
The Elephant Curve 2020. OECD lower & middle classes lagging behind, while to the top 1% captures 23% of total income growth. Source: wir2022.wid.world
December 27, 2023 at 11:51 AM
The Elephant Curve 2020. OECD lower & middle classes lagging behind, while to the top 1% captures 23% of total income growth. Source: wir2022.wid.world
Global wealth distribution per region 2021. A cake divided in three pieces: the Transatlantic area, East Asia and the rest of the world. Source: wir2022.wid.world
December 27, 2023 at 11:47 AM
Global wealth distribution per region 2021. A cake divided in three pieces: the Transatlantic area, East Asia and the rest of the world. Source: wir2022.wid.world
Global income distribution per region 1980-2021. The rise of the Middle Class in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan). source: wir2022.wid.world
December 27, 2023 at 11:38 AM
Global income distribution per region 1980-2021. The rise of the Middle Class in East Asia (China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan). source: wir2022.wid.world
Global economy downside risk scenarios for 2024, review of recent outlook reports (IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit, Moody's, Standard & Poor's, OECD, US Federal Reserve, Black Rock). More here:
policyhive.org/the-outlook-... #econsky
policyhive.org/the-outlook-... #econsky
December 15, 2023 at 3:13 PM
Global economy downside risk scenarios for 2024, review of recent outlook reports (IMF, Economist Intelligence Unit, Moody's, Standard & Poor's, OECD, US Federal Reserve, Black Rock). More here:
policyhive.org/the-outlook-... #econsky
policyhive.org/the-outlook-... #econsky