Greg Bagwell
@gregbagwell.bsky.social
Former Royal Air Force Pilot & Senior Commander & current President of the UK Air & Space Power Association. All views expressed are strictly in a personal capacity.
In 2001, NATO nations responded to a US call for an Article V response after an attack on US soil. There was no debate about where the attack took place, where the threat came from or who paid for what, just an agreement that an attack on one was an attack on all.
February 13, 2025 at 9:34 PM
In 2001, NATO nations responded to a US call for an Article V response after an attack on US soil. There was no debate about where the attack took place, where the threat came from or who paid for what, just an agreement that an attack on one was an attack on all.
As the frenzy around NATO spending dominates the defence debate, it’s worth noting whose budget has been reducing👇🇺🇸. And when you factor in how much US spending is outside the NATO area a very different picture emerges. We all need to spend more, but let’s be measured about it.
February 13, 2025 at 9:33 PM
As the frenzy around NATO spending dominates the defence debate, it’s worth noting whose budget has been reducing👇🇺🇸. And when you factor in how much US spending is outside the NATO area a very different picture emerges. We all need to spend more, but let’s be measured about it.
If you were charged with saving Billions of dollars a day from the US federal budget, would you target the one department that barely makes the “Other” category at a world trailing 0.24% of GDP? It’s not about the money is it?
February 5, 2025 at 8:41 AM
If you were charged with saving Billions of dollars a day from the US federal budget, would you target the one department that barely makes the “Other” category at a world trailing 0.24% of GDP? It’s not about the money is it?
KFOR would have been similar, but Article 51 of the UN Charter enshrines the right to self defence.
January 16, 2025 at 3:56 PM
KFOR would have been similar, but Article 51 of the UN Charter enshrines the right to self defence.
“Occupation forces” was only relevant at the time when the Charter came into being. As written, the Charter wouldn’t cover NATO troops in Ukraine. I suspect it would have to be under UN auspices.
January 16, 2025 at 3:54 PM
“Occupation forces” was only relevant at the time when the Charter came into being. As written, the Charter wouldn’t cover NATO troops in Ukraine. I suspect it would have to be under UN auspices.
As the New Year beckons and before people start talking about Fantasy Defence, here’s a quick reminder of the terms of reference for the UK defence review team👇. It is supposed to be fiscally constrained within the 2.5% envelope: www.gov.uk/government/p...
December 29, 2024 at 11:22 PM
As the New Year beckons and before people start talking about Fantasy Defence, here’s a quick reminder of the terms of reference for the UK defence review team👇. It is supposed to be fiscally constrained within the 2.5% envelope: www.gov.uk/government/p...
4/ But the pattern of small entry holes is distinct & unlike any other impact damage like birds or another aircraft. If fired from behind a target it would likely impact the tail area, causing serious damage to control surfaces and perhaps the hydraulic and control mechanisms….
December 27, 2024 at 1:11 AM
4/ But the pattern of small entry holes is distinct & unlike any other impact damage like birds or another aircraft. If fired from behind a target it would likely impact the tail area, causing serious damage to control surfaces and perhaps the hydraulic and control mechanisms….
3/ On a smaller aircraft the pattern is dense enough to cause catastrophic damage to multiple surfaces and systems - including fuel, hydraulics and controls. On a larger aircraft it will still cause significant damage, but may not be immediately as catastrophic. [Pic @AzeriTimes]
December 27, 2024 at 1:11 AM
3/ On a smaller aircraft the pattern is dense enough to cause catastrophic damage to multiple surfaces and systems - including fuel, hydraulics and controls. On a larger aircraft it will still cause significant damage, but may not be immediately as catastrophic. [Pic @AzeriTimes]
2/ Its basic model 57E6 missile is 3.3m long and has a 20kg blast/fragmentation warhead that detonates when a radar signal detects close proximity to its target. It’s designed to explode alongside an aircraft so that its expanding pattern of fragments become the damage mechanism.
December 27, 2024 at 1:11 AM
2/ Its basic model 57E6 missile is 3.3m long and has a 20kg blast/fragmentation warhead that detonates when a radar signal detects close proximity to its target. It’s designed to explode alongside an aircraft so that its expanding pattern of fragments become the damage mechanism.
The Russian system that is rumoured to be the one responsible for the Azerbaijan Airlines shoot down is the Pantsir S1 (NATO name SA-22 Greyhound), a short range system with missiles and guns used to intercept aircraft and drones. It’s capable of operating independently. 🧵1/4
December 27, 2024 at 1:11 AM
The Russian system that is rumoured to be the one responsible for the Azerbaijan Airlines shoot down is the Pantsir S1 (NATO name SA-22 Greyhound), a short range system with missiles and guns used to intercept aircraft and drones. It’s capable of operating independently. 🧵1/4
7/ Many fear that Trump will accede to Putin’s demands in order to deliver a swift resolution and meet his election promise. But the more he meets World leaders, the more he is going to realise how unpopular and unwelcome that will be. Putin is weak now, any businessman knows how to handle that.
December 9, 2024 at 11:19 AM
7/ Many fear that Trump will accede to Putin’s demands in order to deliver a swift resolution and meet his election promise. But the more he meets World leaders, the more he is going to realise how unpopular and unwelcome that will be. Putin is weak now, any businessman knows how to handle that.
We blinked in 2013, and we have blinked a few times since, not least in Ukraine. Whilst much should be made of the mistakes we have made in past interventions - we should be just as critical of the interventions we didn’t.
December 8, 2024 at 11:29 PM
We blinked in 2013, and we have blinked a few times since, not least in Ukraine. Whilst much should be made of the mistakes we have made in past interventions - we should be just as critical of the interventions we didn’t.
Elon Musk either failed his pilot selection or he just doesn’t like jet pilots. But, instead of drooling over Chinese drone stunt displays, maybe he should expend a bit more energy on fixing his two dimensional problem at taxy speeds.
November 27, 2024 at 6:55 PM
Elon Musk either failed his pilot selection or he just doesn’t like jet pilots. But, instead of drooling over Chinese drone stunt displays, maybe he should expend a bit more energy on fixing his two dimensional problem at taxy speeds.
Oi Elon, I’ve got 4000+ hours and I never landed in a tree.
November 27, 2024 at 6:53 PM
Oi Elon, I’ve got 4000+ hours and I never landed in a tree.
AI Generated vs Real Life
November 25, 2024 at 7:37 PM
AI Generated vs Real Life
Another example of the same. This statement is true no matter how many more we buy..
November 25, 2024 at 9:39 AM
Another example of the same. This statement is true no matter how many more we buy..
If only someone would invent a flying machine that could revolutionise warfare…
November 24, 2024 at 12:39 AM
If only someone would invent a flying machine that could revolutionise warfare…
The UK still plans to sail its Carrier Group to the Indo Pacific next year. www.gov.uk/government/n... , but the diplomatic context is about to get a little bit trickier than when it was conceived. It will be interesting to see if any US support will be needed and what that means for messaging.
November 21, 2024 at 9:33 AM
The UK still plans to sail its Carrier Group to the Indo Pacific next year. www.gov.uk/government/n... , but the diplomatic context is about to get a little bit trickier than when it was conceived. It will be interesting to see if any US support will be needed and what that means for messaging.
4/ Although the US links their use to the arrival of N Korean troops, it’s hardly an escalation in terms of the huge imbalance of Russian long range strikes within Ukraine - strikes that are also facilitated by third party countries such as Iran. But Putin writes his own rules.
November 20, 2024 at 11:11 AM
4/ Although the US links their use to the arrival of N Korean troops, it’s hardly an escalation in terms of the huge imbalance of Russian long range strikes within Ukraine - strikes that are also facilitated by third party countries such as Iran. But Putin writes his own rules.
2/ As others have said elsewhere, Putin is now treating nuclear doctrine as a crude messaging tool, rather than a very carefully controlled and orchestrated set of rules and procedures to manage the ultimate weapon. It’s quite an escalatory step for a “special operation”.
November 20, 2024 at 11:11 AM
2/ As others have said elsewhere, Putin is now treating nuclear doctrine as a crude messaging tool, rather than a very carefully controlled and orchestrated set of rules and procedures to manage the ultimate weapon. It’s quite an escalatory step for a “special operation”.
Putin is doubling down on his use of nuclear threats, and he hopes that the stakes are high enough that it will cause allies of Ukraine to either back down or modify their behaviour. He’s done it before, but is this about ATACMS or an incoming Trump deal?🧵1/9
November 20, 2024 at 11:11 AM
Putin is doubling down on his use of nuclear threats, and he hopes that the stakes are high enough that it will cause allies of Ukraine to either back down or modify their behaviour. He’s done it before, but is this about ATACMS or an incoming Trump deal?🧵1/9
Some rules of the game have been learned the hard way.
November 19, 2024 at 10:58 PM
Some rules of the game have been learned the hard way.
Intelligence sharing is certainly about to hit some rocks.
November 19, 2024 at 3:42 PM
Intelligence sharing is certainly about to hit some rocks.
NATO nations and their populations may be sitting comfortably in their armchairs under the ultimate protection of the collective defence of NATO’s Article V, safe in the belief that Russia would never attack. However, not all wars start with a tank smashing through a border crossing.
November 18, 2024 at 10:24 PM
NATO nations and their populations may be sitting comfortably in their armchairs under the ultimate protection of the collective defence of NATO’s Article V, safe in the belief that Russia would never attack. However, not all wars start with a tank smashing through a border crossing.
8/8. Many will argue that increased involvement will play into Putin’s hands, but he is under increasing internal pressure and a more direct intervention could cast huge doubt on the achievement of his war aims. It will also provide more negotiating power ahead of a Trump Presidency.
November 17, 2024 at 8:55 PM
8/8. Many will argue that increased involvement will play into Putin’s hands, but he is under increasing internal pressure and a more direct intervention could cast huge doubt on the achievement of his war aims. It will also provide more negotiating power ahead of a Trump Presidency.