@GordonJohnson19
@gordonjohnson19.bsky.social
"Derivatives, are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal”- W Buffett; posts are not fincl advice
4/4... US Treasury has some ~$7tn of debt to refinance in 2025E, vs. ~$2.3tn in 2024E, WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY massive (in general, more debt issuance = higher yields). This is a "perfect storm" for WAY, WAY higher yields. Is @GLJ_Research the only ones who see what's likely fated?
January 10, 2025 at 1:47 PM
4/4... US Treasury has some ~$7tn of debt to refinance in 2025E, vs. ~$2.3tn in 2024E, WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY massive (in general, more debt issuance = higher yields). This is a "perfect storm" for WAY, WAY higher yields. Is @GLJ_Research the only ones who see what's likely fated?
1/4 US Treasury yields are likely headed WAY, WAY higher. Why? Well, three reasons, namely: (1) the two largest historical buyers of US Treasury debt are net sellers currently, and Europe's holdings are also now falling too, (2) Trump's Treasury Secretary...
January 10, 2025 at 1:47 PM
1/4 US Treasury yields are likely headed WAY, WAY higher. Why? Well, three reasons, namely: (1) the two largest historical buyers of US Treasury debt are net sellers currently, and Europe's holdings are also now falling too, (2) Trump's Treasury Secretary...
ISM Prices Paid exploded higher in Dec., beating ests. by a mile. Hey @federalreserve.bsky.social... you think the 100bps of rate cuts you've done since 9/18/24, w/ fincl conditions looser than before you began hiking rates (looser fincl conditions = inflationary), may have something to do w/ this?
January 7, 2025 at 3:10 PM
ISM Prices Paid exploded higher in Dec., beating ests. by a mile. Hey @federalreserve.bsky.social... you think the 100bps of rate cuts you've done since 9/18/24, w/ fincl conditions looser than before you began hiking rates (looser fincl conditions = inflationary), may have something to do w/ this?
2/3... IN EVERY MARKET IT COMPETES - b/c if its sales are not growing (which they aren't), it cannot pay investors 100% of its 2024E earnings for the next 180yrs. While it's easy to say valuations don't matter, history has shown that they ABSOLUTELY do, EVERY TIME.
December 19, 2024 at 1:28 PM
2/3... IN EVERY MARKET IT COMPETES - b/c if its sales are not growing (which they aren't), it cannot pay investors 100% of its 2024E earnings for the next 180yrs. While it's easy to say valuations don't matter, history has shown that they ABSOLUTELY do, EVERY TIME.
1/3 The first thing I see when I pull up @bloomberg.com "Tesla's Sales Crash..."; yet, the stock is trading at 180x '24 earnings (meaning investors expect $TSLA to pay them 100% of its 2024E earnings every yr for the next 180yrs), meaning it's sales should be growing EXPONENTIALLY...
December 19, 2024 at 1:28 PM
1/3 The first thing I see when I pull up @bloomberg.com "Tesla's Sales Crash..."; yet, the stock is trading at 180x '24 earnings (meaning investors expect $TSLA to pay them 100% of its 2024E earnings every yr for the next 180yrs), meaning it's sales should be growing EXPONENTIALLY...
3/4 However, Wall Street, currently, ests. the Fed Funds Rate at 3.625% in 2025E & 3.125% in 2026E. So what? Well, given the @federalreserve.bsky.social usually prices its dot plot close to "the market" (i.e., Fed Funds Futures), it seems their dots are about to move higher.
December 18, 2024 at 6:17 PM
3/4 However, Wall Street, currently, ests. the Fed Funds Rate at 3.625% in 2025E & 3.125% in 2026E. So what? Well, given the @federalreserve.bsky.social usually prices its dot plot close to "the market" (i.e., Fed Funds Futures), it seems their dots are about to move higher.
2/4 So, right now, the market (i.e., Fed Funds Futures) is pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of 3.837% in 2025E, and 3.808% in 2026E.
December 18, 2024 at 6:17 PM
2/4 So, right now, the market (i.e., Fed Funds Futures) is pricing in a Fed Funds Rate of 3.837% in 2025E, and 3.808% in 2026E.
1/4 Why even w/ today's 25bps cut from the
@federalreserve.bsky.social (a 100% probability given the mkt has priced in a 98.6% chance of it happening), which is a mistake in the face of rising inflation/record stock-crypto-home prices, the dot plot will likely disappoint equity bulls a 🧵.
@federalreserve.bsky.social (a 100% probability given the mkt has priced in a 98.6% chance of it happening), which is a mistake in the face of rising inflation/record stock-crypto-home prices, the dot plot will likely disappoint equity bulls a 🧵.
December 18, 2024 at 6:17 PM
1/4 Why even w/ today's 25bps cut from the
@federalreserve.bsky.social (a 100% probability given the mkt has priced in a 98.6% chance of it happening), which is a mistake in the face of rising inflation/record stock-crypto-home prices, the dot plot will likely disappoint equity bulls a 🧵.
@federalreserve.bsky.social (a 100% probability given the mkt has priced in a 98.6% chance of it happening), which is a mistake in the face of rising inflation/record stock-crypto-home prices, the dot plot will likely disappoint equity bulls a 🧵.
Above chart labeled wrong.
December 16, 2024 at 2:56 PM
Above chart labeled wrong.
2/2... landslide win shows Americans are in dire need of change/someone who looks out for their interests. Yet, as prices continue to rise and the rich get (much) richer, the despair that the masses saw under Biden will likely re-emerge. #thestockmarketisnottheeconomy
December 16, 2024 at 2:21 PM
2/2... landslide win shows Americans are in dire need of change/someone who looks out for their interests. Yet, as prices continue to rise and the rich get (much) richer, the despair that the masses saw under Biden will likely re-emerge. #thestockmarketisnottheeconomy
1/2 The US economy is likely already in, or on the brink of, recession. The U.S. stock market's strength is masking this reality; but, the jobs data shows the reality of it all. This will likely become clear to the masses 3-to-4 months into Trump's term. Trump's...
December 16, 2024 at 2:21 PM
1/2 The US economy is likely already in, or on the brink of, recession. The U.S. stock market's strength is masking this reality; but, the jobs data shows the reality of it all. This will likely become clear to the masses 3-to-4 months into Trump's term. Trump's...
1/2 CPI inflation is now +11.7% above the Fed's stated arbitrary target of 2%/yr since Mar. 2020 when QE-infinity began. BTW... in NO TEXTBOOK does it state the Fed should target 2%/yr inflation (meaning your purchasing power is cut in half every 35yrs).
December 13, 2024 at 7:39 PM
1/2 CPI inflation is now +11.7% above the Fed's stated arbitrary target of 2%/yr since Mar. 2020 when QE-infinity began. BTW... in NO TEXTBOOK does it state the Fed should target 2%/yr inflation (meaning your purchasing power is cut in half every 35yrs).
Inflation is about to take back off in a big way, as @GLJ_Research has been warning for months. The @federalreserve does not care, and neither does the media (@steveliesman.bsky.social/@nicktimiraos.bsky.social) tasked w/ holding them to account - they will call it "transitory"/a "bump in the road".
December 13, 2024 at 7:16 PM
Inflation is about to take back off in a big way, as @GLJ_Research has been warning for months. The @federalreserve does not care, and neither does the media (@steveliesman.bsky.social/@nicktimiraos.bsky.social) tasked w/ holding them to account - they will call it "transitory"/a "bump in the road".
2/2 By contrast, here's what the data is telling them - i.e., THEY SHOULD BE HIKING RATES. But, they don't care about the data (in fact, they "goal-seek" data to support their asymmetric policy of ALWAYS inflating rates higher).
December 13, 2024 at 1:22 PM
2/2 By contrast, here's what the data is telling them - i.e., THEY SHOULD BE HIKING RATES. But, they don't care about the data (in fact, they "goal-seek" data to support their asymmetric policy of ALWAYS inflating rates higher).
1/2 We find it funny that ANYONE thinks the @federalreserve.bsky.social will NOT cut next week due to inflation that is CLEARLY now resurging higher. Why? Simple. They do what the market tells them to do, NOT WHAT the data suggests... and here's what the market is telling them to do.
December 13, 2024 at 1:22 PM
1/2 We find it funny that ANYONE thinks the @federalreserve.bsky.social will NOT cut next week due to inflation that is CLEARLY now resurging higher. Why? Simple. They do what the market tells them to do, NOT WHAT the data suggests... and here's what the market is telling them to do.
2/2 That is, w/: (a) massive new issuance set for 2025, (b) the 2 largest historic buyers of USTs (China + Japan) currently net sellers, & (c) the free-flow of liquidity set to be MUCH worse in 2025, yields are about to SPIKE higher regardless of what the reckless Fed does.
December 13, 2024 at 1:10 PM
2/2 That is, w/: (a) massive new issuance set for 2025, (b) the 2 largest historic buyers of USTs (China + Japan) currently net sellers, & (c) the free-flow of liquidity set to be MUCH worse in 2025, yields are about to SPIKE higher regardless of what the reckless Fed does.
1/2 Soon, the bond vigilantes will rise in the USA. The @federalreserve.bsky.social's recklessness will not be solved by Congress, or the media figures tasked with holding them to account. It will be solved by UST bond investors demanding higher yields to take on the risk of owning USTs.
December 13, 2024 at 1:10 PM
1/2 Soon, the bond vigilantes will rise in the USA. The @federalreserve.bsky.social's recklessness will not be solved by Congress, or the media figures tasked with holding them to account. It will be solved by UST bond investors demanding higher yields to take on the risk of owning USTs.
No matter how high $TSLA's stock is bid higher on the "corruption creates alpha" thesis, the below is (very) bad for $TSLA's underlying fundamental business (i.e., it's cars just got $7.5K more expensive), which is currently being valued for exponential growth. #makeitmakesense
December 12, 2024 at 8:48 AM
No matter how high $TSLA's stock is bid higher on the "corruption creates alpha" thesis, the below is (very) bad for $TSLA's underlying fundamental business (i.e., it's cars just got $7.5K more expensive), which is currently being valued for exponential growth. #makeitmakesense
The acceleration in at home food prices is going to be a HUGE problem for both Trump and the @federalreserve.bsky.social. They don't seem to care. But, I venture to guess the bond market will.
December 11, 2024 at 2:31 PM
The acceleration in at home food prices is going to be a HUGE problem for both Trump and the @federalreserve.bsky.social. They don't seem to care. But, I venture to guess the bond market will.
3/4 Why are we so confident they cut? Well, the odds of a 25bps cut next week, according to the mkt, jumped to 96.4% following today's inflation data (where it's clear the Fed's progress fighting inflation has stalled).
December 11, 2024 at 1:59 PM
3/4 Why are we so confident they cut? Well, the odds of a 25bps cut next week, according to the mkt, jumped to 96.4% following today's inflation data (where it's clear the Fed's progress fighting inflation has stalled).