Geoff Robinson
@geoffpolhist.bsky.social
The eternal dilemma of conservatism-being modern without being modernist #geoffreads
May 26, 2025 at 8:36 AM
The eternal dilemma of conservatism-being modern without being modernist #geoffreads
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
May 2, 2025 at 5:07 PM
An illustration of how FPP goes from sandbag to springboard - Reform votes and seats in different councils:
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Oxfordshire: 18% vote, 2% seats
Cambridgeshire: 23% vote, 16% seats
Devon: 27% vote, 30% seats
Leicestershire: 33% vote, 46% seats
Derbyshire: 37% vote, 66% seats
Ditto for the Trump-ist American right
One of the greatest paradoxes of Nigel Farage is that he is a very European politician. His style of politics is less Westminster and drawn more from a long political tradition of European radical right populists. If he was Dutch, Reform would simply be called Nigel Farage’s List.
May 2, 2025 at 11:44 PM
Ditto for the Trump-ist American right
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
Most prominent mainstream media libs—in my experience—are from backgrounds that have precluded them from interaction with evangelicals in any meaningful way, which means that the people who look to them for information and analysis are at a real disadvantage on this topic
April 16, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Most prominent mainstream media libs—in my experience—are from backgrounds that have precluded them from interaction with evangelicals in any meaningful way, which means that the people who look to them for information and analysis are at a real disadvantage on this topic
Identity politics is everywhere
A “first ever” minister for Western Sydney and a PM who moves to Sydney? What will the rest of the nation make of this?
April 13, 2025 at 10:06 PM
Identity politics is everywhere
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
But I don't think there is consensus on what "the rule of law" means. For the right it often means "we decide the rules, you are bound to follow them" whereas liberals often include list of substantive values.
Hope the Trump era makes more people realise that whether people respect institutions and the rule of law is so much more important than standard ideological differences between left and right.
April 7, 2025 at 6:40 AM
But I don't think there is consensus on what "the rule of law" means. For the right it often means "we decide the rules, you are bound to follow them" whereas liberals often include list of substantive values.
Richard Posner in 2009 on the new conservatism-seems prophetic www.becker-posner-blog.com/2009/05/is-t...
April 7, 2025 at 12:41 PM
Richard Posner in 2009 on the new conservatism-seems prophetic www.becker-posner-blog.com/2009/05/is-t...
Two books worth a re-read now
April 7, 2025 at 2:07 AM
Two books worth a re-read now
Some radical right ideas strike a popular chord-low taxes/no wokery/less foreigners etc but Trumpist dream of time-travelling to an imagined 50s economy seems intellectuals' fantasy up there with great replacement/western civ/Anglosphere/200% pro-Israelism etc little appeal to real voters?
April 5, 2025 at 8:16 AM
Some radical right ideas strike a popular chord-low taxes/no wokery/less foreigners etc but Trumpist dream of time-travelling to an imagined 50s economy seems intellectuals' fantasy up there with great replacement/western civ/Anglosphere/200% pro-Israelism etc little appeal to real voters?
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
We've been talking an awful lot about how the Trump tariffs will hit the big players: the UK, China, Canada, France, Germany etc
But it's time to talk about the ones who DON'T have loud voices. Because some of the poorest countries in the world are going to be crippled by what happened last night
But it's time to talk about the ones who DON'T have loud voices. Because some of the poorest countries in the world are going to be crippled by what happened last night
April 3, 2025 at 4:53 PM
We've been talking an awful lot about how the Trump tariffs will hit the big players: the UK, China, Canada, France, Germany etc
But it's time to talk about the ones who DON'T have loud voices. Because some of the poorest countries in the world are going to be crippled by what happened last night
But it's time to talk about the ones who DON'T have loud voices. Because some of the poorest countries in the world are going to be crippled by what happened last night
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
I have tariffed
the penguins
that are on
Heard Island
and which
you were probably
assuming
did not export goods
forgive me
they were taking advantage of us
so cunning
and so cold
the penguins
that are on
Heard Island
and which
you were probably
assuming
did not export goods
forgive me
they were taking advantage of us
so cunning
and so cold
April 3, 2025 at 7:45 PM
I have tariffed
the penguins
that are on
Heard Island
and which
you were probably
assuming
did not export goods
forgive me
they were taking advantage of us
so cunning
and so cold
the penguins
that are on
Heard Island
and which
you were probably
assuming
did not export goods
forgive me
they were taking advantage of us
so cunning
and so cold
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
Yale Budget Lab analysis of tariffs: $3,800 hit to average household. Loss of 4% of after-tax income to poorest households; 1.5% to richest.
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/whe...
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/whe...
Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2
budgetlab.yale.edu
April 3, 2025 at 11:35 AM
Yale Budget Lab analysis of tariffs: $3,800 hit to average household. Loss of 4% of after-tax income to poorest households; 1.5% to richest.
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/whe...
budgetlab.yale.edu/research/whe...
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
Some of these tariff rates are absolutely brutal - 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia, 37% for Bangladesh, 29% for Pakistan. The idea any of these countries have victimised the US seems somewhat far fetched.
April 2, 2025 at 8:42 PM
Some of these tariff rates are absolutely brutal - 46% for Vietnam, 49% for Cambodia, 37% for Bangladesh, 29% for Pakistan. The idea any of these countries have victimised the US seems somewhat far fetched.
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
I think punditry would be a lot healthier if people made the case for their policies and position on the merits first rather than framing everything they advocate for as a good electoral strategy. 90% of the time, it's what they support on the merits, so just make that case.
March 29, 2025 at 6:41 PM
I think punditry would be a lot healthier if people made the case for their policies and position on the merits first rather than framing everything they advocate for as a good electoral strategy. 90% of the time, it's what they support on the merits, so just make that case.
Formal structures are important & some might be inherently dysfunctional but politicians badly underestimate importance of norms & conventions - Burkean point for the day?
Regular readers will know that I did mergers and demergers for a living before joining the NHS.
The mean time for a new org to fully settle its operations post-merger is around 2 years, and the culture takes up to 5 years.
If you never let things settle, you will always be running inefficiently.
The mean time for a new org to fully settle its operations post-merger is around 2 years, and the culture takes up to 5 years.
If you never let things settle, you will always be running inefficiently.
“At some point as a country, we have to stop trying to design the ‘perfect’ health care system and instead try to maximise the opportunities of the one we have.”
Siva Anandaciva considers the implications of abolishing NHS England.
buff.ly/JR8naeF
Siva Anandaciva considers the implications of abolishing NHS England.
buff.ly/JR8naeF
March 30, 2025 at 12:14 AM
Formal structures are important & some might be inherently dysfunctional but politicians badly underestimate importance of norms & conventions - Burkean point for the day?
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
The LibDems and Greens are so middle class-coded that a majority of the disabled people who are leaving Labour after it betrayed them are heading to Reform instead, whose policies would hurt them a lot more still.
People believing what they want to project onto Reform is worth studying in itself.
March 29, 2025 at 10:11 PM
The LibDems and Greens are so middle class-coded that a majority of the disabled people who are leaving Labour after it betrayed them are heading to Reform instead, whose policies would hurt them a lot more still.
Fine tuning lecture on violence & social movements-Sorel gets a mention & also my hypothesis that if Fanon had lived to 90s he might have been a neoliberal-building on his suspicion of post-Independence elites
March 29, 2025 at 11:50 PM
Fine tuning lecture on violence & social movements-Sorel gets a mention & also my hypothesis that if Fanon had lived to 90s he might have been a neoliberal-building on his suspicion of post-Independence elites
Make me think of experience of being in post-socialist cities where there was similar post-war building
This week's new blogpost reviews Rob Clayton's fine new book, 'Provision – Architecture of the Post-War Consensus'. and includes an illuminating interview with the author:
municipaldreams.wordpress.com/2025/03/25/b...
municipaldreams.wordpress.com/2025/03/25/b...
March 29, 2025 at 11:48 PM
Make me think of experience of being in post-socialist cities where there was similar post-war building
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
Out of ACTU’s seven Queensland target seats, three are held by an incumbent Greens MP and one is a Labor vs Greens contest.
March 29, 2025 at 11:37 PM
Out of ACTU’s seven Queensland target seats, three are held by an incumbent Greens MP and one is a Labor vs Greens contest.
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
Almost 3 years after joy erupted over NUPES's surprise first-place finish, the French left is again as weak and divided as it was before. In the first round of a presidential election, its candidates would pool just 27-28% if Attal or Philippe run for the centre right, while the far right takes ≈40%
March 28, 2025 at 4:37 PM
Almost 3 years after joy erupted over NUPES's surprise first-place finish, the French left is again as weak and divided as it was before. In the first round of a presidential election, its candidates would pool just 27-28% if Attal or Philippe run for the centre right, while the far right takes ≈40%
Suspect that’s the point?
A federal court’s jurisdiction does *not* stop at the water’s edge. The question is whether the *defendants* are subject to the court order, not *where* the conduct being challenged takes place.
Were it otherwise, the government could act lawlessly overseas and courts would be powerless to stop it.
Were it otherwise, the government could act lawlessly overseas and courts would be powerless to stop it.
March 16, 2025 at 11:41 PM
Suspect that’s the point?
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
Just learned professor Linda Williams has died after a long illness. My deep condolences to her family, friends, and colleagues.
Her work in #PornStudies including the book Hard Core: Power, Pleasure, and the “Frenzy of the Visible” were monumental. RIP
dukeupress.wordpress.com/2025/03/13/f...
Her work in #PornStudies including the book Hard Core: Power, Pleasure, and the “Frenzy of the Visible” were monumental. RIP
dukeupress.wordpress.com/2025/03/13/f...
March 14, 2025 at 3:13 AM
Just learned professor Linda Williams has died after a long illness. My deep condolences to her family, friends, and colleagues.
Her work in #PornStudies including the book Hard Core: Power, Pleasure, and the “Frenzy of the Visible” were monumental. RIP
dukeupress.wordpress.com/2025/03/13/f...
Her work in #PornStudies including the book Hard Core: Power, Pleasure, and the “Frenzy of the Visible” were monumental. RIP
dukeupress.wordpress.com/2025/03/13/f...
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
This really puts into sharp focus the revolutionary aspect of Trump II, both domestically and internationally, and it's fascinating how quickly it has become orthodoxy among GOP elected leaders.
🧵
🧵
Sheehy: "Our economy has been on a sugar high for a long time ... what we're seeing here from this administration and what you're gonna see from this Congress is re-disciplining to ensure that our economy is based on private investment and free-market growth."
March 14, 2025 at 9:23 AM
This really puts into sharp focus the revolutionary aspect of Trump II, both domestically and internationally, and it's fascinating how quickly it has become orthodoxy among GOP elected leaders.
🧵
🧵
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
True at the same time: the attack on Columbia is an escalation toward full-blown Orbán- Erdogan autocracy and destruction of the autonomy of associations & civil society, and the mechanism of micromanaging universities through federal funding has been building for a long time across administrations.
March 14, 2025 at 12:29 PM
True at the same time: the attack on Columbia is an escalation toward full-blown Orbán- Erdogan autocracy and destruction of the autonomy of associations & civil society, and the mechanism of micromanaging universities through federal funding has been building for a long time across administrations.
Reposted by Geoff Robinson
From Adam Przeworski's Diary:
"I grew up under a dictatorship but could never imagine I would die under one. Today I entertain this possibility."
(Just in case it's not obvious: this is one of the most sober political scientists writing today, someone with a minimalist definition of democracy).
"I grew up under a dictatorship but could never imagine I would die under one. Today I entertain this possibility."
(Just in case it's not obvious: this is one of the most sober political scientists writing today, someone with a minimalist definition of democracy).
Diary
I decided to keep a record of my thoughts as events transpire, a diary.
adamprzeworski.substack.com
March 12, 2025 at 2:43 AM
From Adam Przeworski's Diary:
"I grew up under a dictatorship but could never imagine I would die under one. Today I entertain this possibility."
(Just in case it's not obvious: this is one of the most sober political scientists writing today, someone with a minimalist definition of democracy).
"I grew up under a dictatorship but could never imagine I would die under one. Today I entertain this possibility."
(Just in case it's not obvious: this is one of the most sober political scientists writing today, someone with a minimalist definition of democracy).