Geobica
@geobica.com
hi I'm geobica
I'll be uploading old stuff I've made and new stuff I make here for a while.
I'll be uploading old stuff I've made and new stuff I make here for a while.
Forgot to mention: This blob of x>0.9 accounts for 66.29% of the total votes, with the remaining 8.61% being races where there was other stuff, but more people showed up for the PSC race than anything local.
November 5, 2025 at 7:01 PM
Forgot to mention: This blob of x>0.9 accounts for 66.29% of the total votes, with the remaining 8.61% being races where there was other stuff, but more people showed up for the PSC race than anything local.
Turnout was certainly higher in places with other elections (36.31% of 2024 for x>0.9 vs 28.71% of 2024 for x==0) but the main trend is just that more Dems turned out across the board.
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Turnout was certainly higher in places with other elections (36.31% of 2024 for x>0.9 vs 28.71% of 2024 for x==0) but the main trend is just that more Dems turned out across the board.
For contrast, the precincts that had nothing going on except the PSC this year went 56.03% for Harris in 2024, and had a D+17.98 swing to this year.
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
For contrast, the precincts that had nothing going on except the PSC this year went 56.03% for Harris in 2024, and had a D+17.98 swing to this year.
On the right is a big blob that fits what Mary Radcliffe was describing, but her hypothesis is wrong; These aren't democrat areas.
All the precincts with x>0.9 together voted 56.42% for Trump in 2024, whereas they went 55.90% for *democrats* in this year's PSC elections, a D+12.32 point swing.
All the precincts with x>0.9 together voted 56.42% for Trump in 2024, whereas they went 55.90% for *democrats* in this year's PSC elections, a D+12.32 point swing.
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
On the right is a big blob that fits what Mary Radcliffe was describing, but her hypothesis is wrong; These aren't democrat areas.
All the precincts with x>0.9 together voted 56.42% for Trump in 2024, whereas they went 55.90% for *democrats* in this year's PSC elections, a D+12.32 point swing.
All the precincts with x>0.9 together voted 56.42% for Trump in 2024, whereas they went 55.90% for *democrats* in this year's PSC elections, a D+12.32 point swing.
Along the left side of this graph is a bunch of precincts where the only thing on the ballot was the PSC. These contributed 157574 votes to the Republicans and 448818 votes to the Democrats, so 74.01% D vs 25.99% R.
These precincts account for 25.10% of the total votes in the data I was looking at.
These precincts account for 25.10% of the total votes in the data I was looking at.
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
Along the left side of this graph is a bunch of precincts where the only thing on the ballot was the PSC. These contributed 157574 votes to the Republicans and 448818 votes to the Democrats, so 74.01% D vs 25.99% R.
These precincts account for 25.10% of the total votes in the data I was looking at.
These precincts account for 25.10% of the total votes in the data I was looking at.
I looked at two metrics:
1. What was the ratio of turnout in for the PSC races vs the highest turnout for any other race in that precinct in 2025? (x-axis)
2. What is the ratio between the highest turnout for any race in the precinct in 2025 and the 2024 presidential turnout? (y-axis)
1. What was the ratio of turnout in for the PSC races vs the highest turnout for any other race in that precinct in 2025? (x-axis)
2. What is the ratio between the highest turnout for any race in the precinct in 2025 and the 2024 presidential turnout? (y-axis)
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
I looked at two metrics:
1. What was the ratio of turnout in for the PSC races vs the highest turnout for any other race in that precinct in 2025? (x-axis)
2. What is the ratio between the highest turnout for any race in the precinct in 2025 and the 2024 presidential turnout? (y-axis)
1. What was the ratio of turnout in for the PSC races vs the highest turnout for any other race in that precinct in 2025? (x-axis)
2. What is the ratio between the highest turnout for any race in the precinct in 2025 and the 2024 presidential turnout? (y-axis)
So I downloaded some precinct level data from results.sos.ga.gov/cdn/results/... to compare with the 2024 presidential results from github.com/21MetcalfJ/2...
A lot of precincts have either changed names or merged/split, so I don't have the exact correspondence I'd need yet, but most are the same:
A lot of precincts have either changed names or merged/split, so I don't have the exact correspondence I'd need yet, but most are the same:
November 5, 2025 at 6:57 PM
So I downloaded some precinct level data from results.sos.ga.gov/cdn/results/... to compare with the 2024 presidential results from github.com/21MetcalfJ/2...
A lot of precincts have either changed names or merged/split, so I don't have the exact correspondence I'd need yet, but most are the same:
A lot of precincts have either changed names or merged/split, so I don't have the exact correspondence I'd need yet, but most are the same:
The slight differences between the systems is... odd, I'm not sure why they're different in the way they are. I would think that'd be something the WMO would've standardized but alas they did not. There's probably some interesting history in there somewhere.
October 1, 2025 at 10:53 PM
The slight differences between the systems is... odd, I'm not sure why they're different in the way they are. I would think that'd be something the WMO would've standardized but alas they did not. There's probably some interesting history in there somewhere.
I was inspired to make this by the fact that I couldn't find one quite like it, though admittedly I didn't search that long. This was the best I found, though it fudges the numbers a bit to account for the fact that the systems use averages over different numbers of minutes of sustained winds.
October 1, 2025 at 10:52 PM
I was inspired to make this by the fact that I couldn't find one quite like it, though admittedly I didn't search that long. This was the best I found, though it fudges the numbers a bit to account for the fact that the systems use averages over different numbers of minutes of sustained winds.
If I ran a newspaper I'd make it easier, is all I'm saying!
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
If I ran a newspaper I'd make it easier, is all I'm saying!
Even in specifically science focused news sites there's this game they sometimes play where they'll drop clues like "a 2018 study showed" in one sentence and "the team at Something University found" in another, and so you have to solve a riddle to figure out what their source is.
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Even in specifically science focused news sites there's this game they sometimes play where they'll drop clues like "a 2018 study showed" in one sentence and "the team at Something University found" in another, and so you have to solve a riddle to figure out what their source is.
It's a fairly minor point in this case but I do get consistently annoyed by the fact that journalists don't put hyperlinks or even name the specific paper they're citing when they reference scientific research.
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
It's a fairly minor point in this case but I do get consistently annoyed by the fact that journalists don't put hyperlinks or even name the specific paper they're citing when they reference scientific research.
is complicated by differences in definitions and statistical biases.
Either way, the way Al Jazeera worded it implies that the rate is definitively much lower than in the US, which I'm not convinced is anything other than a difference in diagnostic criteria.
Either way, the way Al Jazeera worded it implies that the rate is definitively much lower than in the US, which I'm not convinced is anything other than a difference in diagnostic criteria.
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
is complicated by differences in definitions and statistical biases.
Either way, the way Al Jazeera worded it implies that the rate is definitively much lower than in the US, which I'm not convinced is anything other than a difference in diagnostic criteria.
Either way, the way Al Jazeera worded it implies that the rate is definitively much lower than in the US, which I'm not convinced is anything other than a difference in diagnostic criteria.
I'm not sure what the original source for the "2 to 4 in 10,000" estimate is (they also mention a rate of 0.4 per 10,000 based on the reported number across all of Cuba), but it's certainly not a "2022 study", and as Aguiar et al. cites Vivian Ravelo to have said, the difference from other countries
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
I'm not sure what the original source for the "2 to 4 in 10,000" estimate is (they also mention a rate of 0.4 per 10,000 based on the reported number across all of Cuba), but it's certainly not a "2022 study", and as Aguiar et al. cites Vivian Ravelo to have said, the difference from other countries
The 2 there links to www.wpanet.org/uploads/Sect..., which is a 404 page now, though looking on the Internet Archive (where the pdf is actually dated as from 2004) it doesn't seem to contain those numbers.
www.wpanet.org
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
The 2 there links to www.wpanet.org/uploads/Sect..., which is a 404 page now, though looking on the Internet Archive (where the pdf is actually dated as from 2004) it doesn't seem to contain those numbers.
However, the 2016 article (Aguiar et al.) isn't the origin either, and it references another document from 2003. scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?p...
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
However, the 2016 article (Aguiar et al.) isn't the origin either, and it references another document from 2003. scielo.sld.cu/scielo.php?p...
Searching for this alleged study brought me to Hernández-González et al. (2022), which contains these figures in the introduction, but sources that from a 2016 article. www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/12...
![1. Introduction
Autism spectrum disorders (ASD) encompass a group of neurodevelopmental disorders that appear in the early stages of life, and they are characterized to variable extents by difficulties in verbal and non-verbal communication, reciprocal social interactions, and restricted or repetitive behaviors [1]. In recent decades, the prevalence of ASD has grown exponentially [2]; for example, an incidence of 2 to 4 per 10,000 is reported in Cuba [3] and at international level there is a global autism prevalence that ranges within and across regions, with a median prevalence of (screenshot cuts off there)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:x7akhgdocto7hirewc4brfqi/bafkreigw3kpapvxdjdax34m24a7e2twci4si7k3a5b4grtgl5a2txsifze@jpeg)
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Searching for this alleged study brought me to Hernández-González et al. (2022), which contains these figures in the introduction, but sources that from a 2016 article. www.mdpi.com/2227-7102/12...
The article claims that there exists a "2022 study" that shows "an autism incidence of about 2 to 4 per 10,000 children" in Cuba, which would be significantly less than the US in 2022. However, these numbers aren't from 2022.
October 1, 2025 at 3:14 AM
The article claims that there exists a "2022 study" that shows "an autism incidence of about 2 to 4 per 10,000 children" in Cuba, which would be significantly less than the US in 2022. However, these numbers aren't from 2022.
ok so I just realized that I forgot about this line, which makes me confident that the festival is Halloween
July 21, 2025 at 9:03 PM
ok so I just realized that I forgot about this line, which makes me confident that the festival is Halloween
Admittedly I would say yes in this particular encounter
July 16, 2025 at 1:55 PM
Admittedly I would say yes in this particular encounter
they do talk about it as a thing to go to so I would expect it to be set up somewhere we don't see
July 13, 2025 at 2:16 AM
they do talk about it as a thing to go to so I would expect it to be set up somewhere we don't see
it is pretty unusual for an american town to not be decorated for Halloween weeks in advance but maybe that's just a human society thing
July 13, 2025 at 2:12 AM
it is pretty unusual for an american town to not be decorated for Halloween weeks in advance but maybe that's just a human society thing